This opponent (Setubal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
S
Setubal
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.97
0.50
0.69
0.64
1.29
vs Stronger (19)
0.53
1.16
0.56
0.78
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.64
0.43
0.57
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Pacos Ferreira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
55.6%
Under 1.5
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
27.5%
@ 2.68-7.8%
Under 2.5
72.5%
@ 1.46+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
11.2%
Under 3.5
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
37.0%
No
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
17.5%
1-1
14.8%
0-1
13.6%
1-0
13.2%
0-2
6.9%
2-0
6.6%
1-2
6.2%
2-1
6.0%
Pacos Ferreira goals ↓
Setubal goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
18%
14%
6.9%
2.1%
0.5%
1
13%
15%
6.2%
1.9%
0.4%
2
6.6%
6.0%
2.8%
0.9%
0.2%
3
2.0%
1.8%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pacos Ferreira goals (down), columns = Setubal goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.41
Benfica
2.26
SC Braga
1.76
Sporting CP
1.76
Rio Ave
1.62
Famalicao
1.59
Guimaraes
1.47
GIL Vicente
1.26
Santa Clara
1.26
Moreirense
1.26
Maritimo
1.15
Boavista
1.15
Pacos Ferreira
1.15
Tondela
1.06
Belenenses
1.03
Setubal
1.00
Portimonense
0.97
Aves
0.50
Pacos Ferreira is 0.15 points better than Setubal in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Porto
2.18
Benfica
2.09
SC Braga
1.79
Famalicao
1.56
Guimaraes
1.56
Sporting CP
1.44
Rio Ave
1.41
Moreirense
1.24
GIL Vicente
1.18
Santa Clara
1.06
Pacos Ferreira
1.06
Maritimo
1.00
Tondela
0.88
Portimonense
0.88
Boavista
0.82
Belenenses
0.79
Setubal
0.79
Aves
0.71
Pacos Ferreira is 0.26 goals better than Setubal in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 0.79).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.65
Benfica
0.76
Sporting CP
1.00
Rio Ave
1.06
Guimaraes
1.12
Boavista
1.15
SC Braga
1.18
Santa Clara
1.21
Maritimo
1.24
Setubal
1.26
Tondela
1.29
GIL Vicente
1.29
Moreirense
1.29
Portimonense
1.32
Famalicao
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.53
Belenenses
1.59
Aves
2.00
Pacos Ferreira is 0.26 goals worse than Setubal in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Pacos Ferreira
For 6.1 · Against 4.1 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.6 · Against 3.1 · Total 6.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 19.9 · Against 18.5 · Total 38.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
S
Setubal
For 5.0 · Against 7.4 · Total 12.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 14.1 · Total 28.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Pacos Ferreira
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
11.0
11.2
5.2
5.4
4.9
32.5
33.4
31.6
vs Stronger (24)
11.8
12.7
10.9
5.5
6.4
4.8
33.1
35.2
31.2
vs Similar (26)
10.5
9.5
11.5
4.8
4.6
5.0
31.9
31.8
32.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
61%
57%
65%
80%
76%
84%
91%
91%
91%
% under line
39%
43%
35%
20%
24%
16%
9%
9%
9%
This opponent (Setubal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
S
Setubal
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.3
10.5
6.0
5.9
6.0
35.2
36.2
34.2
vs Stronger (30)
10.3
10.8
9.9
6.3
6.4
6.2
35.1
37.1
33.4
vs Similar (20)
10.5
9.8
11.5
5.5
5.3
5.6
35.4
35.1
35.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
64%
62%
67%
74%
69%
79%
96%
96%
96%
% under line
36%
38%
33%
26%
31%
21%
4%
4%
4%
This opponent (Pacos Ferreira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Aves
11.9
Boavista
11.3
Santa Clara
11.3
Pacos Ferreira
11.1
Guimaraes
11.1
Tondela
11.1
Famalicao
10.8
Sporting CP
10.7
Rio Ave
10.6
Moreirense
10.4
Setubal
10.4
SC Braga
10.3
Maritimo
10.1
Benfica
10.0
Portimonense
9.9
GIL Vicente
9.8
FC Porto
9.7
Belenenses
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Sporting CP
6.3
Boavista
6.0
Setubal
6.0
Famalicao
5.8
Tondela
5.8
Rio Ave
5.8
Pacos Ferreira
5.6
Benfica
5.4
Maritimo
5.3
GIL Vicente
5.2
Aves
5.0
Santa Clara
4.9
SC Braga
4.9
Portimonense
4.8
FC Porto
4.7
Moreirense
4.7
Belenenses
4.5
Guimaraes
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Setubal
35.2
Boavista
34.5
Rio Ave
33.8
GIL Vicente
33.4
Tondela
32.8
Aves
32.6
Pacos Ferreira
32.5
Moreirense
32.3
FC Porto
31.7
Maritimo
31.7
Guimaraes
31.2
Sporting CP
31.2
Portimonense
31.2
Famalicao
30.9
Santa Clara
30.7
Belenenses
30.7
SC Braga
30.0
Benfica
28.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
61.6%
Under 9.5
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
86.7%
Under 3.5
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
98.8%
Under 21.5
1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pacos Ferreira
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.63
0.38
0.50
0.21
0.79
vs Stronger (15)
0.20
0.87
0.29
0.57
0.12
1.12
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.40
0.44
0.44
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Setubal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
S
Setubal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.40
0.12
0.12
0.36
0.71
vs Stronger (19)
0.21
0.58
0.11
0.22
0.30
0.90
vs Similar (11)
0.27
0.09
0.14
0.00
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Pacos Ferreira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pacos Ferreira
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.87
0.44
0.62
0.43
1.14
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
1.20
0.29
1.00
0.50
1.38
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.53
0.56
0.33
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Setubal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
S
Setubal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.57
0.38
0.56
0.29
0.57
vs Stronger (19)
0.32
0.58
0.44
0.56
0.20
0.60
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.55
0.29
0.57
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Pacos Ferreira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 4.5 cards
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
72.5%
1.46
-
-
-
-
-
+7.8%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Pacos Ferreira · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Costinha50%
Joao Victor25%
David Costa14%
Vladimir Silva14%
Anilson10%
Ronaldo Lumungo9%
Nuno Cunha9%
Miguel Mota8%
Francisco Ramos0%
Gonçalo Cardoso0%
Andre Sousa0%
Rafael Vieira0%
Tiago Ferreira0%
Leandro Dias0%
João Pinto0%
Kauan0%
Diegão0%
Miguel Falé0%
Pedro Rafael Oliveira0%
Fernando Gomes0%
Iuri Moreira0%
Diego Fernandes0%
Fernandinho Conceição0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Fernandinho Conceição67%
Gonçalo Cardoso50%
Kauan50%
Costinha50%
Miguel Falé33%
Iuri Moreira33%
Miguel Mota25%
Fernando Gomes25%
Diegão20%
Anilson20%
Rafael Vieira18%
Ronaldo Lumungo18%
Nuno Cunha18%
Leandro Dias17%
Tiago Ferreira10%
Francisco Ramos8%
Joao Victor8%
Andre Sousa0%
João Pinto0%
Pedro Rafael Oliveira0%
Diego Fernandes0%
David Costa0%
Vladimir Silva0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
David Costa14%
Vladimir Silva14%
Andre Sousa10%
Anilson10%
Ronaldo Lumungo9%
Francisco Ramos8%
Joao Victor8%
Gonçalo Cardoso0%
Rafael Vieira0%
Tiago Ferreira0%
Leandro Dias0%
João Pinto0%
Kauan0%
Diegão0%
Miguel Falé0%
Costinha0%
Nuno Cunha0%
Pedro Rafael Oliveira0%
Miguel Mota0%
Fernando Gomes0%
Iuri Moreira0%
Diego Fernandes0%
Fernandinho Conceição0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Miguel Falé50%
Francisco Ramos8%
Joao Victor8%
Gonçalo Cardoso0%
Andre Sousa0%
Rafael Vieira0%
Tiago Ferreira0%
Leandro Dias0%
João Pinto0%
Kauan0%
Diegão0%
Anilson0%
Ronaldo Lumungo0%
Costinha0%
Nuno Cunha0%
Pedro Rafael Oliveira0%
Miguel Mota0%
Fernando Gomes0%
Iuri Moreira0%
Diego Fernandes0%
Fernandinho Conceição0%
David Costa0%
Vladimir Silva0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Pacos Ferreira
FC Porto
Benfica
SC Braga
Sporting CP
Rio Ave
Famalicao
Guimaraes
Moreirense
GIL Vicente
Santa Clara
Maritimo
Boavista
Tondela
Belenenses
Portimonense