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Paide II vs FC Tallinn Result & Analysis

Date: 21/04/2024
Time: 09:30
Final 0-1
Paide II
Paide II
Vs
23%
21%
56%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Paide II winβœ— Miss
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawβœ— Miss
21.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn winβœ“ Hit
55.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Paide IIPaide II

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W24L31W21W02L01L10W16L22D03LA·FLO29/10A·JK 02/11H·VII05/11H·FCI12/11A·FLO02/03H·TAL09/03A·JK 17/03H·TAR30/03A·ELV07/04A·FCI15/04
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.332.131.072.291.562.00
vs Stronger (8)1.252.121.402.801.001.00
vs Similar (22)1.362.140.892.001.692.23
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D32W12L31W31W11D03L22D40W24LH·NΓ•M29/10A·LEG02/11H·JK 05/11A·VII12/11A·TAL04/03H·LAA09/03A·TAR16/03A·VII30/03H·JK 07/04H·FLO13/04
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.071.832.201.731.931.93
vs Stronger (4)1.252.000.001.001.672.33
vs Similar (21)1.861.952.092.001.601.90
vs Weaker (5)3.601.203.331.004.001.50
Clean sheet %13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%20%3%07%117%220%319%415%519%6+
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
90.3%
Under 1.5
9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
73.7%
Under 2.5
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
53.3%
Under 3.5
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
70.8%
No
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.9%
1-1
8.3%
1-3
6.9%
2-2
6.6%
0-2
5.9%
2-1
5.6%
2-3
5.2%
0-3
4.6%
Paide II goals ↓
FC Tallinn goals →
01234
02.9%4.3%5.9%4.6%2.7%
12.5%8.3%8.9%6.9%4.1%
22.4%5.6%6.6%5.2%3.0%
31.2%2.8%3.3%2.6%1.5%
40.4%1.0%1.2%1.0%0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Paide II goals (down), columns = FC Tallinn goals (across).

πŸ’ͺ 3. Team Strengths Analysis

πŸ† Total PPG

Points / game
Laagri
2.17
Viimsi
2.08
Flora II
1.83
Tartu Welco
1.67
FC Tallinn
1.47
Elva
1.24
FCI Levadia II
1.22
Tallinna Kalev II
1.17
Paide II
0.69
JK Tabasalu
0.44
Legion
0.00
Paide II is 0.78 points worse than FC Tallinn in terms of average points per game (0.69 vs 1.47).

βš”οΈ Attack

Goals scored / game
Laagri
3.06
Flora II
2.67
Viimsi
2.08
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Tartu Welco
1.94
FC Tallinn
1.86
FCI Levadia II
1.67
Elva
1.47
Paide II
1.31
JK Tabasalu
0.97
Legion
0.00
Paide II is 0.56 goals worse than FC Tallinn in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.86).

πŸ›‘οΈ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Laagri
1.17
Viimsi
1.17
Tartu Welco
1.22
FC Tallinn
1.50
Flora II
1.53
Elva
1.63
FCI Levadia II
1.97
Tallinna Kalev II
2.42
JK Tabasalu
2.81
Paide II
3.36
Legion
4.50
Paide II is 1.86 goals worse than FC Tallinn in terms of goals conceded per game (3.36 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

πŸ”€ 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

πŸ₯… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

βš–οΈ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Paide IIPaide II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W21W31W20W02L01L00D03L10W02LA·FLO29/10A·JK 02/11H·VII05/11H·FCI12/11A·FLO02/03H·TAL09/03A·JK 17/03H·TAR30/03A·ELV07/04A·FCI15/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.970.571.070.940.88
vs Stronger (8)0.751.120.801.400.670.67
vs Similar (22)0.770.910.440.891.000.92
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D20W11D10W01L00D00D10W20W14LH·NΓ•M29/10A·LEG02/11H·JK 05/11A·VII12/11A·TAL04/03H·LAA09/03A·TAR16/03A·VII30/03H·JK 07/04H·FLO13/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.670.800.870.730.47
vs Stronger (4)0.500.750.001.000.670.67
vs Similar (21)0.620.760.731.000.500.50
vs Weaker (5)1.600.201.330.332.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

πŸ₯… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Paide II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Paide IIPaide II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D03L00D01L00D00D10W13L12L01LA·FLO29/10A·JK 02/11H·VII05/11H·FCI12/11A·FLO02/03H·TAL09/03A·JK 17/03H·TAR30/03A·ELV07/04A·FCI15/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.170.501.210.621.12
vs Stronger (8)0.501.000.601.400.330.33
vs Similar (22)0.591.230.441.110.691.31
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D12L01L21W30W11D03L12L20W10WH·NΓ•M29/10A·LEG02/11H·JK 05/11A·VII12/11A·TAL04/03H·LAA09/03A·TAR16/03A·VII30/03H·JK 07/04H·FLO13/04
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.171.400.871.201.47
vs Stronger (4)0.751.250.000.001.001.67
vs Similar (21)1.241.191.361.001.101.40
vs Weaker (5)2.001.002.000.672.001.50
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

πŸ₯… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Paide II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

πŸ”₯ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.590.3%-------βœ— Miss
Over 2.573.7%-------βœ— Miss
BTTS Yes70.8%-------βœ— Miss

πŸ’° 14. Squad value

πŸ’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (25)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

βš”οΈ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

πŸ›‘οΈ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (12)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🀝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
PI wins
0
Draws
3
FT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Paide II vs FC Tallinn · H/A from PI
DateH/AGameScore
20/10/23HPI Vs FC Tallinn1-0
26/08/23AFC Tallinn Vs PI7-1
29/05/23HPI Vs FC Tallinn0-1
18/03/23AFC Tallinn Vs PI3-2

Paide IIPaide II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/04/24AFCI Levadia II Vs PI3-0
07/04/24AElva Vs PI2-2
30/03/24HPI Vs Tartu Welco1-6
17/03/24AJK Tabasalu Vs PI0-1
09/03/24HPI Vs Tallinna Kalev II0-1
02/03/24AFlora II Vs PI2-0
12/11/23HPI Vs FCI Levadia II2-1
05/11/23HPI Vs Viimsi3-1
02/11/23AJK Tabasalu Vs PI4-2
29/10/23AFlora II Vs PI1-2

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/04/24HFT Vs Flora II2-4
07/04/24HFT Vs JK Tabasalu4-0
30/03/24AViimsi Vs FT2-2
16/03/24ATartu Welco Vs FT3-0
09/03/24HFT Vs Laagri1-1
04/03/24ATallinna Kalev II Vs FT1-3
12/11/23AViimsi Vs FT1-3
05/11/23HFT Vs JK Tabasalu1-2
02/11/23ALegion Vs FT2-3
29/10/23HFT Vs NΓ΅mme United2-2

πŸ“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Paide II
Paide II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDL0.98
HomeLWWLL0.79
AwayLLWDL1.15
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%25%31%
AVG goals4.103.754.42
Over 1.5 %80%75%85%
Over 2.5 %68%67%69%
Over 3.5 %58%58%58%
Scored1.561.211.88
Conceded2.542.542.54
BTTS60%58%62%
Clean Sheet12%8%15%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDWL1.43
HomeDLDWL1.38
AwayWWWLD1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %43%43%43%
AVG goals3.814.003.62
Over 1.5 %88%95%81%
Over 2.5 %79%86%71%
Over 3.5 %60%62%57%
Scored2.002.191.81
Conceded1.811.811.81
BTTS69%71%67%
Clean Sheet12%14%10%
Corners---
Cards---

πŸ† 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LaagriLaagri3678
61%
2.2
11042+68
4.2
89%
69%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1113.11.2
-
2ViimsiViimsi3675
61%
2.1
7542+33
3.2
78%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.2
-
3Flora IIFlora II3666
56%
1.8
9655+41
4.2
97%
72%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.71.5
-
4Tartu WelcoTartu Welco3660
44%
1.7
7044+26
3.2
78%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.2
-
5FC TallinnFC Tallinn3653
42%
1.5
6754+13
3.4
83%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
6ElvaElva3847
32%
1.2
5662-6
3.1
79%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
7FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3644
36%
1.2
6071-11
3.6
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
8Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II3642
31%
1.2
7287-15
4.4
94%
86%
72%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.4
-
9Paide IIPaide II3625
19%
0.7
47121-74
4.7
89%
86%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.33.4
-
10JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu3616
11%
0.4
35101-66
3.8
86%
78%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.8
-
11LegionLegion20
0%
0.0
09-9
4.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.04.5
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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