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Paide II vs FC Tallinn Result & Analysis

Date: 10/11/2024
Time: 10:00
Final 2-2
Paide II
Paide II
Vs
16%
18%
66%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Paide II win✗ Miss
16.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
18.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn win✗ Miss
66.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Paide IIPaide II

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-712L06L34L22D01L51W17L07L21W33DA·FCI31/08H·LAA15/09H·ELV19/09A·TAR22/09A·VII28/09H·FCI07/10H·TAL15/10A·LAA19/10A·FLO29/10H·JK 04/11
Avg total
5.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
3.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.373.601.673.871.073.33
vs Stronger (10)0.903.600.805.001.002.20
vs Similar (20)1.603.602.103.301.103.90
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %3% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L12L31W11D10W20W32W01L02L11DA·VII31/08H·FCI15/09H·JK 24/09H·FLO28/09A·ELV06/10A·TAL09/10A·FCI20/10H·VII24/10H·LAA27/10A·TAR03/11
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.831.502.191.881.431.07
vs Stronger (3)0.001.330.001.500.001.00
vs Similar (27)2.041.522.501.931.541.08
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%2%06%115%219%320%416%522%6+
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.7%
Under 1.5
8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
76.6%
Under 2.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
57.2%
Under 3.5
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
69.1%
No
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.6%
1-3
7.8%
1-1
7.0%
0-2
6.5%
0-3
5.9%
2-2 ✓
5.7%
1-4
5.3%
2-3
5.2%
Paide II goals ↓
FC Tallinn goals →
01234
02.4%4.2%6.5%5.9%4.0%
11.7%7.0%8.6%7.8%5.3%
21.6%4.2%5.7%5.2%3.5%
30.7%1.9%2.5%2.3%1.5%
40.2%0.6%0.8%0.8%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Paide II goals (down), columns = FC Tallinn goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Laagri
2.17
Viimsi
2.08
Flora II
1.83
Tartu Welco
1.67
FC Tallinn
1.47
Elva
1.24
FCI Levadia II
1.22
Tallinna Kalev II
1.17
Paide II
0.69
JK Tabasalu
0.44
Legion
0.00
Paide II is 0.78 points worse than FC Tallinn in terms of average points per game (0.69 vs 1.47).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Laagri
3.06
Flora II
2.67
Viimsi
2.08
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Tartu Welco
1.94
FC Tallinn
1.86
FCI Levadia II
1.67
Elva
1.47
Paide II
1.31
JK Tabasalu
0.97
Legion
0.00
Paide II is 0.56 goals worse than FC Tallinn in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.86).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Laagri
1.17
Viimsi
1.17
Tartu Welco
1.22
FC Tallinn
1.50
Flora II
1.53
Elva
1.63
FCI Levadia II
1.97
Tallinna Kalev II
2.42
JK Tabasalu
2.81
Paide II
3.36
Legion
4.50
Paide II is 1.86 goals worse than FC Tallinn in terms of goals conceded per game (3.36 vs 1.50).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Paide IIPaide II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W03L31W21W01L41W14L01L00D21WA·FCI31/08H·LAA15/09H·ELV19/09A·TAR22/09A·VII28/09H·FCI07/10H·TAL15/10A·LAA19/10A·FLO29/10H·JK 04/11
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.531.071.600.731.47
vs Stronger (10)0.301.300.201.600.401.00
vs Similar (20)1.201.651.501.600.901.70
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D21W01L10W10W22D00D01L00DA·VII31/08H·FCI15/09H·JK 24/09H·FLO28/09A·ELV06/10A·TAL09/10A·FCI20/10H·VII24/10H·LAA27/10A·TAR03/11
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.671.250.940.570.36
vs Stronger (3)0.000.670.000.500.001.00
vs Similar (27)1.040.671.431.000.620.31
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Paide II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Paide IIPaide II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-602L03L03L01L00D10W03L06L21W12LA·FCI31/08H·LAA15/09H·ELV19/09A·TAR22/09A·VII28/09H·FCI07/10H·TAL15/10A·LAA19/10A·FLO29/10H·JK 04/11
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.472.070.602.270.331.87
vs Stronger (10)0.602.300.603.400.601.20
vs Similar (20)0.401.950.601.700.202.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D12L10W10W00D10W10W01L01L11DA·VII31/08H·FCI15/09H·JK 24/09H·FLO28/09A·ELV06/10A·TAL09/10A·FCI20/10H·VII24/10H·LAA27/10A·TAR03/11
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.830.940.940.860.71
vs Stronger (3)0.000.670.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (27)1.000.851.070.930.920.77
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Paide II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.591.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.576.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (25)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (12)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
1
PI wins
0
Draws
6
FT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Paide II vs FC Tallinn · H/A from PI
DateH/AGameScore
20/07/24AFC Tallinn Vs PI3-0
26/05/24AFC Tallinn Vs PI8-1
21/04/24HPI Vs FC Tallinn0-1
20/10/23HPI Vs FC Tallinn1-0
26/08/23AFC Tallinn Vs PI7-1
29/05/23HPI Vs FC Tallinn0-1
18/03/23AFC Tallinn Vs PI3-2

Paide IIPaide II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/11/24HPI Vs JK Tabasalu3-3
29/10/24AFlora II Vs PI1-2
19/10/24ALaagri Vs PI7-0
15/10/24HPI Vs Tallinna Kalev II1-7
07/10/24HPI Vs FCI Levadia II5-1
28/09/24AViimsi Vs PI1-0
22/09/24ATartu Welco Vs PI2-2
19/09/24HPI Vs Elva3-4
15/09/24HPI Vs Laagri0-6
31/08/24AFCI Levadia II Vs PI2-1

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/11/24ATartu Welco Vs FT1-1
27/10/24HFT Vs Laagri0-2
24/10/24HFT Vs Viimsi0-1
20/10/24AFCI Levadia II Vs FT2-3
09/10/24ATallinna Kalev II Vs FT0-2
06/10/24AElva Vs FT0-1
28/09/24HFT Vs Flora II1-1
24/09/24HFT Vs JK Tabasalu3-1
15/09/24HFT Vs FCI Levadia II1-2
31/08/24AViimsi Vs FT1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Paide II
Paide II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWD0.92
HomeLLWLD0.79
AwayLDLLW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%25%31%
AVG goals4.544.924.19
Over 1.5 %84%83%85%
Over 2.5 %82%83%81%
Over 3.5 %58%62%54%
Scored1.421.461.38
Conceded3.123.462.81
BTTS62%67%58%
Clean Sheet8%8%8%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLD1.44
HomeLWDLL1.16
AwayLWWWD1.72
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%32%52%
AVG goals3.523.883.16
Over 1.5 %84%96%72%
Over 2.5 %66%72%60%
Over 3.5 %48%48%48%
Scored1.902.121.68
Conceded1.621.761.48
BTTS60%68%52%
Clean Sheet18%12%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LaagriLaagri3678
61%
2.2
11042+68
4.2
89%
69%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1113.11.2
-
2ViimsiViimsi3675
61%
2.1
7542+33
3.2
78%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.2
-
3Flora IIFlora II3666
56%
1.8
9655+41
4.2
97%
72%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.71.5
-
4Tartu WelcoTartu Welco3660
44%
1.7
7044+26
3.2
78%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.2
-
5FC TallinnFC Tallinn3653
42%
1.5
6754+13
3.4
83%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
6ElvaElva3847
32%
1.2
5662-6
3.1
79%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
7FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3644
36%
1.2
6071-11
3.6
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
8Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II3642
31%
1.2
7287-15
4.4
94%
86%
72%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.4
-
9Paide IIPaide II3625
19%
0.7
47121-74
4.7
89%
86%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.33.4
-
10JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu3616
11%
0.4
35101-66
3.8
86%
78%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.8
-
11LegionLegion20
0%
0.0
09-9
4.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.04.5
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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