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Paide II vs FCI Levadia II Result & Analysis

Date: 03/04/2023
Time: 16:00
Final 1-2
Paide II
Paide II
Vs
27%
21%
52%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Paide II win✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II win✓ Hit
52.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Paide IIPaide II

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-602L13L11D05L05L14L23L62W23L22DH·PÄR08/10H·VII16/10A·FLO24/10A·FCI31/10H·NÕM05/11H·K-J13/11H·K-J04/03H·ELV09/03A·FC 18/03A·LEG26/03
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
3.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.902.901.932.671.873.13
vs Stronger (6)0.832.831.002.750.503.00
vs Similar (21)2.053.142.502.701.643.55
vs Weaker (3)3.001.330.002.004.501.00
Clean sheet %7% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L30W20W40W50W21W13L40W51W21WA·PÄR03/10H·LAA09/10A·NÕM16/10H·K-J22/10H·PAI31/10A·FLO06/11A·ELV13/11H·K-J09/03H·ELV13/03H·JK 19/03
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.571.072.831.172.170.92
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)2.371.212.641.362.001.00
vs Weaker (11)2.910.823.140.862.500.75
Clean sheet %30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%2%06%115%219%320%416%522%6+
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.9%
Under 1.5
8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
76.9%
Under 2.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
57.6%
Under 3.5
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
74.4%
No
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2 ✓
8.2%
1-1
7.7%
2-2
6.9%
1-3
6.5%
2-1
5.8%
2-3
5.5%
0-2
4.9%
3-2
3.9%
Paide II goals ↓
FCI Levadia II goals →
01234
02.4%3.4%4.9%3.9%2.3%
12.2%7.7%8.2%6.5%3.8%
22.5%5.8%6.9%5.5%3.2%
31.4%3.3%3.9%3.1%1.8%
40.6%1.4%1.6%1.3%0.8%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Paide II goals (down), columns = FCI Levadia II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Nõmme United
2.50
Viimsi
1.97
Flora II
1.92
FCI Levadia II
1.58
JK Tabasalu
1.53
FC Tallinn
1.44
Paide II
1.14
Elva
1.11
Tartu Kalev
1.00
Legion
0.58
K-Järve JK Järve
0.56
Paide II is 0.44 points worse than FCI Levadia II in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.58).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nõmme United
3.17
Flora II
2.39
JK Tabasalu
2.25
FC Tallinn
2.00
Viimsi
1.86
Paide II
1.83
FCI Levadia II
1.58
K-Järve JK Järve
1.39
Elva
1.21
Legion
1.03
Tartu Kalev
0.50
Paide II is 0.25 goals better than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 1.58).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Tartu Kalev
0.50
Nõmme United
0.81
Viimsi
0.97
FCI Levadia II
1.28
Flora II
1.47
FC Tallinn
1.81
JK Tabasalu
1.94
Elva
2.00
Paide II
2.28
Legion
2.69
K-Järve JK Järve
3.42
Paide II is 1.00 goals worse than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.28 vs 1.28).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Paide IIPaide II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L11D01L02L02L12L30W00D10WH·PÄR08/10H·VII16/10A·FLO24/10A·FCI31/10H·NÕM05/11H·K-J13/11H·K-J04/03H·ELV09/03A·FC 18/03A·LEG26/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.100.731.000.731.20
vs Stronger (6)0.331.500.251.250.502.00
vs Similar (21)0.811.051.000.900.641.18
vs Weaker (3)1.000.670.001.001.500.50
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W20W10W20W10W21W11D20W30W01LA·PÄR03/10H·LAA09/10A·NÕM16/10H·K-J22/10H·PAI31/10A·FLO06/11A·ELV13/11H·K-J09/03H·ELV13/03H·JK 19/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.431.330.391.080.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.050.531.090.361.000.75
vs Weaker (11)1.550.271.710.431.250.00
Clean sheet %63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Paide II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Paide IIPaide II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L12L00D04L03L12L11D32W23L12LH·PÄR08/10H·VII16/10A·FLO24/10A·FCI31/10H·NÕM05/11H·K-J13/11H·K-J04/03H·ELV09/03A·FC 18/03A·LEG26/03
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.801.201.671.131.93
vs Stronger (6)0.501.330.751.500.001.00
vs Similar (21)1.242.101.501.801.002.36
vs Weaker (3)2.000.670.001.003.000.50
Clean sheet %13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L10W10W20W40W00D02L20W21W20WA·PÄR03/10H·LAA09/10A·NÕM16/10H·K-J22/10H·PAI31/10A·FLO06/11A·ELV13/11H·K-J09/03H·ELV13/03H·JK 19/03
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.330.631.500.781.080.42
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.320.681.551.001.000.25
vs Weaker (11)1.360.551.430.431.250.75
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Paide II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.591.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.576.9%-------✓ Hit
BTTS Yes74.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (26)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
PI wins
0
Draws
3
FLI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Paide II vs FCI Levadia II · H/A from PI
DateH/AGameScore
31/10/22AFCI Levadia II Vs PI5-0
18/07/22HPI Vs FCI Levadia II1-4
30/05/22AFCI Levadia II Vs PI3-1
14/03/22HPI Vs FCI Levadia II3-0

Paide IIPaide II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/03/23ALegion Vs PI2-2
18/03/23AFC Tallinn Vs PI3-2
09/03/23HPI Vs Elva6-2
04/03/23HPI Vs K-Järve JK Järve2-3
13/11/22HPI Vs K-Järve JK Järve1-4
05/11/22HPI Vs Nõmme United0-5
31/10/22AFCI Levadia II Vs PI5-0
24/10/22AFlora II Vs PI1-1
16/10/22HPI Vs Viimsi1-3
08/10/22HPI Vs Pärnu0-2

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/03/23HFLI Vs JK Tabasalu2-1
13/03/23HFLI Vs Elva5-1
09/03/23HFLI Vs K-Järve JK Järve4-0
13/11/22AElva Vs FLI3-1
06/11/22AFlora II Vs FLI1-2
31/10/22HFLI Vs Paide II5-0
22/10/22HFLI Vs K-Järve JK Järve4-0
16/10/22ANõmme United Vs FLI0-2
09/10/22HFLI Vs Laagri3-0
03/10/22APärnu Vs FLI2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Paide II
Paide II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLD1.40
HomeLLLLW1.35
AwayWDLLD1.45
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %45%45%45%
AVG goals4.624.454.80
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %88%85%90%
Over 3.5 %75%65%85%
Scored2.172.152.20
Conceded2.452.302.60
BTTS65%60%70%
Clean Sheet20%25%15%
Corners---
Cards---
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 8 Wins / 0 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWW1.97
HomeWWWWW2.24
AwayLLWWL1.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%71%50%
AVG goals3.673.953.33
Over 1.5 %95%100%89%
Over 2.5 %74%86%61%
Over 3.5 %49%52%44%
Scored2.462.812.06
Conceded1.211.141.28
BTTS62%67%56%
Clean Sheet28%29%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3690
78%
2.5
11429+85
4.0
89%
78%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1013.20.8
-
2ViimsiViimsi3671
58%
2.0
6735+32
2.8
69%
53%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
3Flora IIFlora II3669
61%
1.9
8653+33
3.9
86%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.5
-
4FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3657
44%
1.6
5746+11
2.9
81%
64%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.3
-
5JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu3655
50%
1.5
8170+11
4.2
86%
78%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.9
-
6FC TallinnFC Tallinn3652
44%
1.4
7265+7
3.8
86%
78%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.8
-
7ElvaElva3842
32%
1.1
4676-30
3.2
82%
63%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
8Paide IIPaide II3641
33%
1.1
6682-16
4.1
78%
69%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.3
-
9LegionLegion3621
14%
0.6
3797-60
3.7
83%
75%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.7
-
10K-Järve JK JärveK-Järve JK Järve3620
17%
0.6
50123-73
4.8
92%
86%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.43.4
-
11Tartu KalevTartu Kalev22
0%
1.0
11+0
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.50.5
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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