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Paide II vs Flora II Result & Analysis

Date: 20/05/2023
Time: 12:00
Final 0-1
Paide II
Paide II
Vs
23%
21%
55%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Flora II
Flora II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Paide II winâś— Miss
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flora II winâś“ Hit
55.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

Paide IIPaide II

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-723L22D12L46L13L33D02L05L20W71WA·FC 18/03A·LEG26/03H·FCI03/04A·JK 08/04H·NĂ•M17/04A·FLO24/04A·VII27/04H·JK 01/05H·LEG06/05A·K-J14/05
Avg total
4.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.833.001.532.732.133.27
vs Stronger (6)1.002.671.002.501.002.75
vs Similar (22)2.093.231.752.832.503.70
vs Weaker (2)1.501.500.002.003.001.00
Clean sheet %7% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-610W52W32W23L33D36L61W21W00D10WH·FC 12/03H·LEG19/03H·JK 02/04A·K-J10/04H·PAI24/04H·NĂ•M27/04H·K-J01/05A·FC 06/05A·VII11/05A·JK 15/05
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.631.573.251.751.931.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.641.501.862.001.431.00
vs Weaker (16)3.501.624.331.562.431.71
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%16%21%3%07%118%221%319%414%517%6+
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
89.4%
Under 1.5
10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
71.8%
Under 2.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
51.0%
Under 3.5
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
69.4%
No
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.1%
1-1
8.8%
1-3
6.9%
2-2
6.6%
0-2
6.3%
2-1
5.8%
2-3
5.0%
0-3
4.8%
Paide II goals ↓
Flora II goals →
01234
03.2%4.7%6.3%4.8%2.7%
12.7%8.8%9.1%6.9%3.9%
22.5%5.8%6.6%5.0%2.8%
31.2%2.8%3.2%2.4%1.4%
40.4%1.0%1.1%0.9%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Paide II goals (down), columns = Flora II goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Nõmme United
2.50
Viimsi
1.97
Flora II
1.92
FCI Levadia II
1.58
JK Tabasalu
1.53
FC Tallinn
1.44
Paide II
1.14
Elva
1.11
Tartu Kalev
1.00
Legion
0.58
K-Järve JK Järve
0.56
Paide II is 0.78 points worse than Flora II in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.92).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nõmme United
3.17
Flora II
2.39
JK Tabasalu
2.25
FC Tallinn
2.00
Viimsi
1.86
Paide II
1.83
FCI Levadia II
1.58
K-Järve JK Järve
1.39
Elva
1.21
Legion
1.03
Tartu Kalev
0.50
Paide II is 0.56 goals worse than Flora II in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 2.39).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Tartu Kalev
0.50
Nõmme United
0.81
Viimsi
0.97
FCI Levadia II
1.28
Flora II
1.47
FC Tallinn
1.81
JK Tabasalu
1.94
Elva
2.00
Paide II
2.28
Legion
2.69
K-Järve JK Järve
3.42
Paide II is 0.81 goals worse than Flora II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.28 vs 1.47).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Paide IIPaide II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W00D13L11D20W02L02L10W30WA·FC 18/03A·LEG26/03H·FCI03/04A·JK 08/04H·NĂ•M17/04A·FLO24/04A·VII27/04H·JK 01/05H·LEG06/05A·K-J14/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.200.671.000.931.40
vs Stronger (6)0.671.330.501.000.751.50
vs Similar (22)0.861.180.751.001.001.40
vs Weaker (2)0.501.000.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora IIFlora II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W11D00D22D02L32W41W11D00D00DH·FC 12/03H·LEG19/03H·JK 02/04A·K-J10/04H·PAI24/04H·NĂ•M27/04H·K-J01/05A·FC 06/05A·VII11/05A·JK 15/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.631.690.560.710.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.860.571.570.570.140.57
vs Weaker (16)1.560.691.780.561.290.86
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Paide II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Paide IIPaide II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L12L12L33D02L13L00D03L10W41WA·FC 18/03A·LEG26/03H·FCI03/04A·JK 08/04H·NĂ•M17/04A·FLO24/04A·VII27/04H·JK 01/05H·LEG06/05A·K-J14/05
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.800.871.731.201.87
vs Stronger (6)0.331.330.501.500.251.25
vs Similar (22)1.232.051.001.831.502.30
vs Weaker (2)1.000.500.001.002.000.00
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora IIFlora II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D41W32W01L31W04L20W10W00D10WH·FC 12/03H·LEG19/03H·JK 02/04A·K-J10/04H·PAI24/04H·NĂ•M27/04H·K-J01/05A·FC 06/05A·VII11/05A·JK 15/05
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.400.931.561.191.210.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.790.930.291.431.290.43
vs Weaker (16)1.940.942.561.001.140.86
Clean sheet %50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Paide II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.589.4%-------âś— Miss
Over 2.571.8%-------âś— Miss

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (26)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
1
PI wins
2
Draws
2
FI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Paide II vs Flora II · H/A from PI
DateH/AGameScore
24/04/23AFlora II Vs PI3-3
24/10/22AFlora II Vs PI1-1
08/08/22HPI Vs Flora II1-2
26/05/22HPI Vs Flora II0-6
11/04/22AFlora II Vs PI0-4

Paide IIPaide II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/05/23AK-Järve JK Järve Vs PI1-7
06/05/23HPI Vs Legion2-0
01/05/23HPI Vs JK Tabasalu0-5
27/04/23AViimsi Vs PI2-0
24/04/23AFlora II Vs PI3-3
17/04/23HPI Vs Nõmme United1-3
08/04/23AJK Tabasalu Vs PI6-4
03/04/23HPI Vs FCI Levadia II1-2
26/03/23ALegion Vs PI2-2
18/03/23AFC Tallinn Vs PI3-2

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/05/23AJK Tabasalu Vs FI0-1
11/05/23AViimsi Vs FI0-0
06/05/23AFC Tallinn Vs FI1-2
01/05/23HFI Vs K-Järve JK Järve6-1
27/04/23HFI Vs Nõmme United3-6
24/04/23HFI Vs Paide II3-3
10/04/23AK-Järve JK Järve Vs FI3-2
02/04/23HFI Vs JK Tabasalu3-2
19/03/23HFI Vs Legion5-2
12/03/23HFI Vs FC Tallinn1-0

đź“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Paide II
Paide II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLWW1.31
HomeWLLLW1.25
AwayDLDLW1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%42%42%
AVG goals4.694.295.08
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %85%83%88%
Over 3.5 %73%62%83%
Scored2.191.962.42
Conceded2.502.332.67
BTTS65%58%71%
Clean Sheet19%25%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Flora II
Flora II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDW1.74
HomeWWDLW1.96
AwayLLWDW1.52
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %53%62%43%
AVG goals3.984.543.39
Over 1.5 %85%88%83%
Over 2.5 %77%83%70%
Over 3.5 %53%62%43%
Scored2.452.921.96
Conceded1.531.621.43
BTTS60%58%61%
Clean Sheet34%33%35%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3690
78%
2.5
11429+85
4.0
89%
78%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1013.20.8
-
2ViimsiViimsi3671
58%
2.0
6735+32
2.8
69%
53%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
3Flora IIFlora II3669
61%
1.9
8653+33
3.9
86%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.5
-
4FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3657
44%
1.6
5746+11
2.9
81%
64%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.3
-
5JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu3655
50%
1.5
8170+11
4.2
86%
78%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.9
-
6FC TallinnFC Tallinn3652
44%
1.4
7265+7
3.8
86%
78%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.8
-
7ElvaElva3842
32%
1.1
4676-30
3.2
82%
63%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
8Paide IIPaide II3641
33%
1.1
6682-16
4.1
78%
69%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.3
-
9LegionLegion3621
14%
0.6
3797-60
3.7
83%
75%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.7
-
10K-Järve JK JärveK-Järve JK Järve3620
17%
0.6
50123-73
4.8
92%
86%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.43.4
-
11Tartu KalevTartu Kalev22
0%
1.0
11+0
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.50.5
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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