Paks host Ferencvarosi TC in the Hungary: NB I, with the away side boasting a strong recent form and a notable win over Gornik Zabrze. Ferencvarosi TC has been scoring at a rate of 1.82 goals per game when playing weaker opponents, while conceding 0.73 goals per game in those matches. On the other hand, Paks has struggled at home, conceding 1 goal per game on average against stronger opponents.
The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.4 goals and a most likely total of 3 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 10.2%. The model's selection is an away win, with a probability of 49%.
The model's suggested picks are: Over 21.5 fouls (87.4%), Over 1.5 goals (86.7%), and Over 3.5 cards (81.6%). Paks has a 28% chance of winning, a 24% chance of drawing, and a 49% chance of losing.
Results analysis
Paks pulled off a stunning upset, defeating Ferencvarosi TC 4-2 at home, extending their win streak despite coming off a defeat. The win marks a reversal for the home side, which had been struggling. The pre-match favourite, Ferencvarosi TC, had been predicted to win with a 49% probability, but the model's selection, an away win, was incorrect. The model's 28% probability of a home win was also not the outcome. The suggested picks, however, performed well, with "Over 21.5 fouls" and "Over 1.5" both hitting, with probabilities of 87.4% and 86.7% respectively. "Over 3.5 cards" missed, with an 81.6% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Paks win✓ Hit
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC win✗ Miss
48.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Paks
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.50
2.36
2.00
1.44
1.06
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
2.00
1.48
2.54
2.08
1.50
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferencvarosi TC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ferencvarosi TC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
0.97
2.06
0.69
1.79
1.29
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.10
1.80
1.60
1.20
0.60
2.40
vs Weaker (19)
2.37
0.53
2.30
0.40
2.44
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Paks) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.7%
Under 1.5
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.8%
Under 2.5
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.1%
Under 3.5
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.2%
No
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%
1-2
9.2%
2-1
6.8%
2-2
6.7%
0-2
6.3%
1-3
6.0%
0-1
5.4%
2-3
4.4%
Paks goals ↓
Ferencvarosi TC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
5.4%
6.3%
4.1%
2.0%
1
3.8%
10%
9.2%
6.0%
3.0%
2
3.4%
6.8%
6.7%
4.4%
2.2%
3
1.7%
3.3%
3.3%
2.2%
1.1%
4
0.6%
1.2%
1.2%
0.8%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Paks goals (down), columns = Ferencvarosi TC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Gyori ETO FC
2.09
Ferencvarosi TC
2.06
Debreceni VSC
1.61
Paks
1.61
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.45
Puskas Academy
1.39
Vasas
1.32
Budapest Honved
1.21
Kisvarda FC
1.21
Ujpest
1.21
Nyiregyhaza
1.21
MTK Budapest
1.15
Paks is 0.45 points worse than Ferencvarosi TC in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 2.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ferencvarosi TC
2.03
Gyori ETO FC
1.97
Paks
1.91
MTK Budapest
1.67
Debreceni VSC
1.55
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.48
Ujpest
1.45
Vasas
1.44
Nyiregyhaza
1.42
Budapest Honved
1.32
Puskas Academy
1.30
Kisvarda FC
1.09
Paks is 0.12 goals worse than Ferencvarosi TC in terms of goals scored per game (1.91 vs 2.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Gyori ETO FC
0.91
Ferencvarosi TC
0.94
Debreceni VSC
1.24
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.30
Puskas Academy
1.30
Paks
1.39
Kisvarda FC
1.48
Vasas
1.56
Budapest Honved
1.70
Ujpest
1.73
Nyiregyhaza
1.73
MTK Budapest
1.88
Paks is 0.45 goals worse than Ferencvarosi TC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 0.94).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ferencvarosi TC
57%
Gyori ETO FC
55%
Ujpest
53%
Zalaegerszegi TE
51%
Debreceni VSC
50%
MTK Budapest
49%
Kisvarda FC
49%
Paks
47%
Puskas Academy
44%
Paks is 9.5 percentage points worse than Ferencvarosi TC in terms of average possession (47% vs 57%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Paks
For 6.0 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 3.1 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 13.4 · Total 27.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ferencvarosi TC
For 4.7 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.9 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 12.9 · Total 26.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Paks
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.1
10.4
3.7
4.2
3.3
28.9
29.2
28.6
vs Stronger (9)
11.7
11.7
11.7
4.9
5.0
4.8
28.7
30.7
26.7
vs Similar (40)
10.6
10.9
10.2
3.5
4.0
3.0
28.6
28.8
28.3
vs Weaker (1)
9.0
-
9.0
3.0
-
3.0
37.0
-
37.0
% over line
62%
62%
62%
54%
58%
50%
84%
75%
94%
% under line
38%
38%
38%
46%
42%
50%
16%
25%
6%
This opponent (Ferencvarosi TC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ferencvarosi TC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.6
8.7
3.7
3.4
3.9
27.6
27.3
27.8
vs Stronger (2)
10.5
10.0
11.0
6.0
3.0
9.0
26.0
28.0
24.0
vs Similar (17)
8.1
8.6
7.6
4.2
4.4
4.0
26.5
26.1
26.9
vs Weaker (31)
10.6
12.0
9.2
3.3
3.0
3.5
28.4
28.0
28.7
% over line
50%
63%
37%
48%
48%
48%
89%
95%
84%
% under line
50%
37%
63%
52%
52%
52%
11%
5%
16%
This opponent (Paks) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Paks
10.8
Ujpest
9.9
Ferencvarosi TC
9.8
Kisvarda FC
9.8
Budapest Honved
9.7
MTK Budapest
9.6
Puskas Academy
9.6
Debreceni VSC
9.5
Gyori ETO FC
9.4
Zalaegerszegi TE
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Debreceni VSC
5.1
Paks
5.1
Zalaegerszegi TE
5.1
Ujpest
5.0
Gyori ETO FC
4.8
Puskas Academy
4.8
Ferencvarosi TC
4.6
Budapest Honved
4.4
MTK Budapest
4.3
Kisvarda FC
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Paks
28.3
Debreceni VSC
28.3
Puskas Academy
27.4
Ferencvarosi TC
27.4
Ujpest
25.7
Zalaegerszegi TE
25.0
MTK Budapest
24.4
Gyori ETO FC
24.2
Kisvarda FC
23.8
Budapest Honved
18.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
49.5%
Under 9.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
77.5%
Under 3.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
88.6%
Under 21.5
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Paks
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.57
0.93
0.86
0.69
0.31
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.85
0.56
1.00
0.92
0.71
0.21
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferencvarosi TC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ferencvarosi TC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.43
1.19
0.31
1.00
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.90
1.00
0.40
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (19)
1.32
0.16
1.30
0.20
1.33
0.11
Clean sheet %
70% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Paks) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Paks over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Paks
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.93
1.43
1.14
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (27)
1.15
0.93
1.54
1.15
0.79
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferencvarosi TC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ferencvarosi TC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.88
0.38
0.79
0.71
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.90
0.60
0.80
0.20
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.05
0.37
1.00
0.20
1.11
0.56
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Paks) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Paks over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (40)
€40m
GEF (28)
€16m
PA (27)
€11m
PAK (29)
€8m
Paks's squad is €32m less valuable than Ferencvarosi TC's (€8m vs €40m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (18)
€24m
GEF (10)
€7m
PA (12)
€5m
PAK (9)
€3m
Paks's attack is €21m less valuable than Ferencvarosi TC's (€3m vs €24m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (9)
€8m
GEF (6)
€4m
PA (5)
€2m
PAK (6)
€2m
Paks's midfield is €6m less valuable than Ferencvarosi TC's (€2m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (13)
€9m
GEF (12)
€5m
PA (10)
€4m
PAK (14)
€4m
Paks's defence is €5m less valuable than Ferencvarosi TC's (€4m vs €9m).
Hungary: NB I 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB I stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Puskas Academy
Gyori ETO FC
Vasas
MTK Budapest
Ujpest
Nyiregyhaza
Kisvarda FC
Debreceni VSC
Budapest Honved
Zalaegerszegi TE