Panathinaikos’ defensive record at home is solid, conceding no goals on average against stronger opposition, while Olympiakos Piraeus averages 1.0 goal scored and 0.85 conceded away to weaker teams. The model favours a home win, with a 42% chance, a 35% draw probability and a 23% chance of an away victory. The expected total of 1.8 goals points to a tight match, and the most likely scoreline is 0-0 with a 18.2% probability. Suggested selections include an Over 19.5 fouls at 97.7%, Over 21.5 fouls at 94.3%, Under 3.5 goals at 89.5% (hit), Over 23.5 fouls at 88.1%, Over 2.5 cards at 86.2%, Under 11.5 corners at 82.8%, Over 25.5 fouls at 78.6% and Under 10.5 corners at 73.8%. The recent form shows Panathinaikos unbeaten in five matches, while Olympiakos is on a two-game winning streak. This low-scoring, defensively focused clash is likely to end in a narrow home victory.
Results analysis
In a surprising turn, the pre-match favourite, Home win, did not materialise, as the match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s pick incorrect. The final score of 1-1 matched the actual result, confirming the stalemate. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals, with an 89.5% probability, proved accurate, hitting its target. Panathinaikos, unbeaten in their last five, and Olympiakos Piraeus, on a two-game winning run, both delivered a balanced contest. The pre-match probability for a home win stood at 42%, while the draw probability was 35% and the away win 23%. The most likely scoreline of 2 goals was not achieved, but the model’s Under 3.5 call was a clear success.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Panathinaikos winâś— Miss
42.2%
Avg Implied 42.2% · @ 2.21
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś“ Hit
35.0%
Avg Implied 29.7% · @ 3.14
Edge
+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus winâś— Miss
22.8%
Avg Implied 28.0% · @ 3.33
Edge
-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Panathinaikos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.57
1.71
0.29
1.44
0.81
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
1.08
0.85
1.57
0.57
0.50
1.17
vs Weaker (15)
2.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.56
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympiakos Piraeus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Olympiakos Piraeus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.23
1.20
1.53
1.20
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.75
1.50
1.00
1.50
2.50
1.50
vs Weaker (26)
1.12
1.19
1.23
1.54
1.00
0.85
Clean sheet %
23% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Panathinaikos) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
54.2%
Under 1.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
26.2%
@ 2.26-15.4%
Under 2.5
73.8%
@ 1.61+15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
10.5%
Under 3.5
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
34.6%
No
65.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
18.2%
1-0
16.8%
1-1 âś“
14.1%
0-1
10.8%
2-0
9.6%
2-1
6.8%
1-2
4.5%
0-2
4.3%
Panathinaikos goals ↓
Olympiakos Piraeus goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
18%
11%
4.3%
1.0%
0.2%
1
17%
14%
4.5%
1.1%
0.2%
2
9.6%
6.8%
2.4%
0.6%
0.1%
3
3.4%
2.4%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
4
0.9%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Panathinaikos goals (down), columns = Olympiakos Piraeus goals (across).
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AEK Athens FC
2.34
Panathinaikos
2.16
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.08
PAOK
1.82
Aris Thessalonikis
1.45
OFI Crete
1.24
OFI
1.24
Atromitos
1.22
Volos NFC
1.08
PAS Giannina
1.00
Asteras Tripolis
0.97
Panetolikos
0.92
Ionikos
0.86
Lamia
0.83
Levadiakos
0.83
Panathinaikos is 0.08 points better than Olympiakos Piraeus in terms of average points per game (2.16 vs 2.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
AEK Athens FC
1.97
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.95
Aris Thessalonikis
1.55
PAOK
1.53
Panathinaikos
1.32
OFI Crete
1.12
OFI
1.12
Atromitos
1.11
PAS Giannina
0.97
Panetolikos
0.94
Volos NFC
0.92
Levadiakos
0.81
Ionikos
0.78
Asteras Tripolis
0.72
Lamia
0.69
Panathinaikos is 0.63 goals worse than Olympiakos Piraeus in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.95).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Panathinaikos
0.45
AEK Athens FC
0.45
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.68
PAOK
0.87
Asteras Tripolis
1.06
Aris Thessalonikis
1.11
Atromitos
1.11
OFI Crete
1.24
OFI
1.24
Levadiakos
1.42
PAS Giannina
1.47
Ionikos
1.53
Panetolikos
1.67
Lamia
1.69
Volos NFC
1.76
Panathinaikos is 0.24 goals better than Olympiakos Piraeus in terms of goals conceded per game (0.45 vs 0.68).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Panathinaikos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.23
1.00
0.14
0.81
0.31
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.46
1.14
0.29
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (15)
1.07
0.07
0.83
0.00
1.22
0.11
Clean sheet %
80% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympiakos Piraeus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Olympiakos Piraeus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.53
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (26)
0.46
0.42
0.62
0.46
0.31
0.38
Clean sheet %
53% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Panathinaikos) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Panathinaikos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panathinaikos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panathinaikos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Panathinaikos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.33
0.71
0.14
0.62
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.38
0.38
0.43
0.29
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (15)
0.93
0.27
1.17
0.00
0.78
0.44
Clean sheet %
73% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympiakos Piraeus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Olympiakos Piraeus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.53
1.00
0.87
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
2.00
0.50
vs Weaker (26)
0.65
0.77
0.62
1.08
0.69
0.46
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Panathinaikos) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Panathinaikos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panathinaikos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panathinaikos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
73.8%
1.61
-
-
-
-
-
+15.4%
âś“ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (29)
€175m
PAN (34)
€109m
AAF (26)
€85m
PAO (32)
€82m
AT (27)
€41m
OFI (24)
€18m
LEV (24)
€16m
PAN (27)
€13m
AT (31)
€13m
ATR (21)
€12m
VN (25)
€10m
PG (36)
€4m
Panathinaikos's squad is €65m less valuable than Olympiakos Piraeus's (€109m vs €175m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (12)
€84m
PAN (13)
€46m
AAF (11)
€44m
PAO (11)
€30m
AT (13)
€22m
PAN (11)
€7m
OFI (6)
€6m
LEV (11)
€5m
AT (11)
€5m
VN (8)
€4m
ATR (7)
€3m
PG (12)
€1m
Panathinaikos's attack is €38m less valuable than Olympiakos Piraeus's (€46m vs €84m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (6)
€47m
PAO (7)
€28m
PAN (8)
€26m
AAF (5)
€16m
AT (5)
€7m
LEV (4)
€5m
OFI (5)
€3m
AT (4)
€2m
ATR (3)
€2m
PAN (5)
€2m
VN (5)
€2m
PG (7)
€1m
Panathinaikos's midfield is €22m less valuable than Olympiakos Piraeus's (€26m vs €47m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (11)
€44m
PAN (13)
€38m
AAF (10)
€26m
PAO (14)
€24m
AT (9)
€12m
OFI (13)
€8m
ATR (11)
€6m
AT (16)
€6m
VN (12)
€5m
LEV (9)
€5m
PAN (11)
€3m
PG (17)
€2m
Panathinaikos's defence is €6m less valuable than Olympiakos Piraeus's (€38m vs €44m).
Greece: Super League 1 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 1 stats & trends →