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Panevėžys II vs Be1 NFA Result & Analysis

Date: 29/03/2024
Time: 16:00
Final 2-0
Panevėžys II
Panevėžys II
Vs
22%
29%
49%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Panevėžys II win✓ Hit
22.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA win✗ Miss
49.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D14L30W01L01L44D30W00D00D01LH·TRA02/10A·MIN07/10H·FA 11/10A·GAR20/10H·KAU27/10A·ŽAL03/11A·EKR08/11A·BAB08/03H·NEP17/03A·NEV22/03
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.701.071.271.672.13
vs Stronger (7)0.572.860.002.001.003.50
vs Similar (10)1.400.701.600.401.201.00
vs Weaker (13)1.771.851.141.572.502.17
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W11D41W10W01L31W11D01L31W20WA·KAU08/10A·NEP21/10H·JON27/10A·TRA31/10A·TRA04/11H·TRA08/11H·DŽI18/11A·DŽI25/11A·HEG07/03A·BAN17/03← A Lyga1 Lyga →
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.670.931.711.141.620.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)1.331.441.401.801.251.00
vs Weaker (21)1.810.711.890.781.750.67
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%10%019%127%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.1%
Under 1.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.7%
Under 2.5
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.9%
Under 3.5
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.3%
No
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
0-1
12.3%
0-0
10.4%
0-2
10.0%
1-2
9.1%
1-0
7.1%
2-1
5.6%
0-3
4.9%
Panevėžys II goals ↓
Be1 NFA goals →
01234
010%12%10%4.9%1.8%
17.1%14%9.1%4.5%1.7%
23.8%5.6%4.1%2.0%0.8%
31.2%1.7%1.3%0.6%0.2%
40.3%0.4%0.3%0.1%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Panevėžys II goals (down), columns = Be1 NFA goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FK Trakai
2.47
Be1 NFA
2.10
Babrungas
1.90
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.90
Tauras
1.57
Nevėžis
1.57
Atmosfera
1.47
Ekranas
1.30
BFA
1.23
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.13
Panevėžys II
1.13
FA Šiauliai II
1.07
Minija
1.03
Garliava
0.77
Banga II
0.40
Panevėžys II is 0.97 points worse than Be1 NFA in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 2.10).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Trakai
2.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.13
Be1 NFA
1.90
Babrungas
1.87
Tauras
1.83
FA Šiauliai II
1.77
BFA
1.50
Nevėžis
1.47
Ekranas
1.40
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.30
Hegelmann II
1.23
Panevėžys II
1.23
Atmosfera
1.20
Garliava
0.97
Minija
0.93
Banga II
0.60
Panevėžys II is 0.67 goals worse than Be1 NFA in terms of goals scored per game (1.23 vs 1.90).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FK Trakai
0.63
Be1 NFA
0.87
Babrungas
0.93
Tauras
1.03
Nevėžis
1.07
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.27
Atmosfera
1.30
Minija
1.33
Ekranas
1.60
BFA
1.60
Garliava
1.70
Panevėžys II
1.77
Hegelmann II
1.97
Kauno Žalgiris II
2.03
Banga II
2.27
FA Šiauliai II
2.30
Panevėžys II is 0.90 goals worse than Be1 NFA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.77 vs 0.87).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L01L10W01L00D10W10W00D00D01LH·TRA02/10A·MIN07/10H·FA 11/10A·GAR20/10H·KAU27/10A·ŽAL03/11A·EKR08/11A·BAB08/03H·NEP17/03A·NEV22/03
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.730.400.470.671.00
vs Stronger (7)0.291.290.000.330.502.00
vs Similar (10)0.600.400.400.400.800.40
vs Weaker (13)0.620.690.570.570.670.83
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L21W10W00D20W10W00D20W10WA·KAU08/10A·NEP21/10H·JON27/10A·TRA31/10A·TRA04/11H·TRA08/11H·DŽI18/11A·DŽI25/11A·HEG07/03A·BAN17/03← A Lyga1 Lyga →
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.430.860.570.750.31
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.560.560.400.800.750.25
vs Weaker (21)0.900.381.110.440.750.33
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Panevėžys II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W13L20W00D01L34L20W00D00D00DH·TRA02/10A·MIN07/10H·FA 11/10A·GAR20/10H·KAU27/10A·ŽAL03/11A·EKR08/11A·BAB08/03H·NEP17/03A·NEV22/03
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.970.670.801.001.13
vs Stronger (7)0.291.570.001.670.501.50
vs Similar (10)0.800.301.200.000.400.60
vs Weaker (13)1.151.150.571.001.831.33
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W20W00D01L11D01L01L11D10WA·KAU08/10A·NEP21/10H·JON27/10A·TRA31/10A·TRA04/11H·TRA08/11H·DŽI18/11A·DŽI25/11A·HEG07/03A·BAN17/03← A Lyga1 Lyga →
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.500.860.570.880.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.780.891.001.000.500.75
vs Weaker (21)0.900.330.780.331.000.33
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Panevėžys II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.570.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
PI wins
0
Draws
4
BN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Panevėžys II vs Be1 NFA · H/A from PI
DateH/AGameScore
20/08/23ABe1 NFA Vs PI3-1
02/04/23HPI Vs Be1 NFA0-2
07/11/22HPI Vs Be1 NFA0-2
03/07/22ABe1 NFA Vs PI2-1

Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/03/24ANevėžis Vs PI1-0
17/03/24HPI Vs Neptūną Klaipėda0-0
08/03/24ABabrungas Vs PI0-0
08/11/23AEkranas Vs PI0-3
03/11/23AŽalgiris II Vs PI4-4
27/10/23HPI Vs Kauno Žalgiris II0-1
20/10/23AGarliava Vs PI1-0
11/10/23HPI Vs FA Šiauliai II3-0
07/10/23AMinija Vs PI4-1
02/10/23HPI Vs Trakai II1-1

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/03/24ABanga II Vs BN0-2
07/03/24AHegelmann II Vs BN1-3
25/11/23ADžiugas Telšiai Vs BN1-0
18/11/23HBN Vs Džiugas Telšiai1-1
08/11/23HBN Vs Trakai II3-1
04/11/23ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs BN1-0
31/10/23ATrakai II Vs BN0-1
27/10/23HBN Vs Jonava4-1
21/10/23ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs BN1-1
08/10/23AKauno Žalgiris II Vs BN0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Panevėžys II
Panevėžys II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDDL1.22
HomeWDWLD1.26
AwayLDWDL1.19
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%35%33%
AVG goals3.262.963.52
Over 1.5 %84%83%85%
Over 2.5 %70%57%81%
Over 3.5 %36%30%41%
Scored1.501.431.56
Conceded1.761.521.96
BTTS64%52%74%
Clean Sheet18%22%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWW1.80
HomeWDWWD2.04
AwayWLLWW1.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%58%46%
AVG goals2.402.622.19
Over 1.5 %76%88%65%
Over 2.5 %40%46%35%
Over 3.5 %16%21%12%
Scored1.501.671.35
Conceded0.900.960.85
BTTS54%62%46%
Clean Sheet36%29%42%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FK TrakaiFK Trakai3074
80%
2.5
7019+51
3.0
73%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.6
-
2Be1 NFABe1 NFA3063
63%
2.1
5726+31
2.8
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.9
-
3BabrungasBabrungas3057
53%
1.9
5628+28
2.8
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.9
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda3057
57%
1.9
6438+26
3.4
80%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.3
-
5TaurasTauras3047
43%
1.6
5531+24
2.9
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.0
-
6NevėžisNevėžis3047
43%
1.6
4432+12
2.5
70%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
7AtmosferaAtmosfera3044
43%
1.5
3639-3
2.5
70%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
8EkranasEkranas3039
33%
1.3
4248-6
3.0
80%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
9BFABFA3037
30%
1.2
4548-3
3.1
83%
53%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
10Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3035
33%
1.2
3961-22
3.3
97%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.0
-
11Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3034
30%
1.1
3753-16
3.0
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
-
12Hegelmann IIHegelmann II3034
33%
1.1
3759-22
3.2
90%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
13FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3032
33%
1.1
5369-16
4.1
87%
77%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.3
-
14MinijaMinija3031
20%
1.0
2840-12
2.3
67%
37%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.3
-
15GarliavaGarliava3023
17%
0.8
2951-22
2.7
67%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
16Banga IIBanga II3012
7%
0.4
1868-50
2.9
83%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.3
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Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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