The contest between Panevėžys and Banga is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win. Panevėžys, fresh from a victory over FK Zalgiris Vilnius, has scored an average of 1.22 goals and conceded just 0.44 against similar opposition, while Banga, after a draw against Kauno Žalgiris, averages 1.56 goals scored and 0.89 conceded away. The model predicts an average of 2.3 goals, most likely a 2-goal total with a 28% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.5% probability. Home win probability stands at 36%, a draw at 31%, and an away win at 33%. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Under 5.5 (96.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.7%), Under 4.5 (91.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.3%), and Home under 2.5 goals (88.2%). These selections reflect the expected modest scoring output from both sides.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Panevėžys win
35.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Banga win
33.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Panevėžys
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.07
1.25
0.58
1.89
1.39
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.41
1.14
1.22
0.44
1.54
1.62
vs Weaker (8)
2.25
0.88
1.33
1.00
2.80
0.80
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Banga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.10
0.85
1.15
1.47
1.06
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
1.25
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.43
vs Similar (17)
1.47
1.06
1.38
1.25
1.56
0.89
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
68.9%
Under 1.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
41.2%
Under 2.5
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
20.6%
Under 3.5
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.6%
No
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.1%
1-0
10.3%
0-1
9.8%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
6.9%
0-2
6.3%
Panevėžys goals ↓
Banga goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.8%
6.3%
2.4%
0.7%
1
10%
15%
7.5%
2.9%
0.8%
2
6.9%
7.9%
4.5%
1.7%
0.5%
3
2.7%
3.1%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.8%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Panevėžys goals (down), columns = Banga goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
Panevėžys and Banga are level in average points per game (both 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
Panevėžys is 0.12 goals worse than Banga in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
Panevėžys is 0.50 goals better than Banga in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Panevėžys or Draw
66.7%
Avg Implied -
36%
31%
33%
covers Panevėžys + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys or Banga
69.2%
Avg Implied -
36%
31%
33%
covers Panevėžys + Banga
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Banga
64.1%
Avg Implied -
36%
31%
33%
covers Draw + Banga
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5
Over
69.6%
Under
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5
Over
33.4%
Under
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 0.5
Over
68.0%
Under
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 1.5
Over
31.5%
Under
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 2.5
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 3.5
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Panevėžys, so a minus line means Panevėžys give that many goals of a start and Banga receive them. At -1, Panevėžys must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Panevėžys win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Panevėžys)
Panevėžys -2
5.2%
Draw -2
10.6%
Banga +2
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Panevėžys)
Panevėžys -1
15.8%
Draw -1
20.1%
Banga +1
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Panevėžys)
Panevėžys +1
66.7%
Draw +1
19.2%
Banga -1
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Panevėžys)
Panevėžys +2
85.9%
Draw +2
9.7%
Banga -2
4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Panevėžys
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
0.58
0.17
0.94
0.61
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.50
0.56
0.11
0.77
0.77
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.25
0.67
0.33
1.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Banga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.50
0.38
0.62
0.71
0.41
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.40
0.43
0.57
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.53
0.62
0.75
0.78
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Panevėžys
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.63
0.67
0.42
0.94
0.78
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.64
0.67
0.33
0.77
0.85
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.62
0.67
0.67
1.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Banga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.46
0.54
0.76
0.65
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
0.75
0.00
0.60
0.57
0.86
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.53
0.75
0.50
0.78
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
Panevėžys and Banga have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
Panevėžys and Banga have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
Panevėžys and Banga have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
Panevėžys and Banga have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Suduva Marijampole
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Kauno Žalgiris
TransINVEST Vilnius
Džiugas Telšiai
Hegelmann Litauen
Šiauliai
FK Trakai