Panevėžys and Dėmiai Telšiai face off in the Lithuania: A Lyga, with Panevėžys coming off a draw against Dėmiai Telšiai in their last match, resulting in a 1-1 score. The model's selection is a home win, with a 43% chance of Panevėžys taking the win, 31% for a draw, and 26% for Dėmiai Telšiai's victory. The expected total goals is 2.2, with the most likely total being 2 goals.
Panevėžys' home form against similar opponents sees them scoring an average of 1.45 goals and conceding 0.64 goals. Dėmiai Telšiai's away form against similar opponents sees them scoring an average of 1.75 goals and conceding 0.5 goals. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals has an 82.1% probability of occurring, with a 10% edge. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, occurring with a 14.4% probability. The home side has a 43% chance of winning, a 31% chance of drawing, and a 26% chance of losing. The model's selections are Under 3.5 goals (82.1%), with a 10% edge, and the home win (43%), draw (31%), and away win (26%) are all available selections.
Results analysis
The draw at Panevėžys extends their run of draws, having come off a draw in their last outing against Dėiugas Telšiai. The final score was a 1-1 stalemate, a result that mirrored their previous match against the same opponent. The pre-match favourite, a home win, did not come through, as the model's selection was incorrect. The model had predicted a home win with a probability of 43%. The suggested picks included under 3.5 goals, which hit with a probability of 82.1%. The most likely total goals were predicted to be 2, with a probability of 28%. The most likely scores were 1-1, 1-0, and 0-0, each with a specific probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Panevėžys win✗ Miss
42.7%
Avg Implied 34.3% · @ 2.62
Edge
+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.85
Dafabet
2.80
Betano
2.72
Superbet
2.72
Pinnacle
2.70
Draw✓ Hit
31.3%
Avg Implied 29.1% · @ 3.09
Edge
+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.32
Bet365
3.30
10Bet
3.25
Betano
3.20
Dafabet
3.20
Džiugas Telšiai win✗ Miss
26.0%
Avg Implied 36.7% · @ 2.45
Edge
-10.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.62
Marathonbet
2.61
Pinnacle
2.55
William Hil
2.50
Superbet
2.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Panevėžys
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.27
1.31
0.92
1.94
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.35
1.55
1.20
1.00
1.50
2.10
vs Weaker (10)
2.30
0.70
1.67
0.67
2.57
0.71
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Džiugas Telšiai
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.33
0.94
1.19
1.29
1.50
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
1.69
0.86
1.71
0.83
1.67
vs Similar (17)
1.29
1.06
1.00
0.78
1.62
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.6%
@ 1.28-5.0%
Under 1.5
34.4%
@ 3.09+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Under
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.24
10Bet
3.20
Unibet
3.15
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
37.5%
@ 1.94-9.9%
Under 2.5
62.5%
@ 1.75+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.02
SBO
2.01
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
Under
Pinnacle
1.82
Betfair
1.80
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.77
10Bet
1.77
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.9%
@ 3.27-9.9%
Under 3.5
82.1%
@ 1.26+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.34
Betfair
3.30
Under
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Superbet
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.7%
@ 1.72-8.2%
No
55.3%
@ 1.93+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.83
William Hil
1.75
Superbet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
No
Betfair
2.05
Unibet
2.00
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.96
William Hil
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.4%@ 5.55+6.7%
1-0
12.8%@ 7.69+7.3%
0-0
12.5%@ 8.26+7.3%
0-1
9.1%@ 7.41+3.3%
2-0
8.9%@ 12.10+5.4%
2-1
8.3%@ 9.04+3.6%
1-2
6.1%@ 8.62+1.1%
0-2
4.8%@ 11.38+1.1%
Panevėžys goals ↓
Džiugas Telšiai goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.1%
4.8%
1.5%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
6.1%
1.9%
0.4%
2
8.9%
8.3%
3.8%
1.2%
0.3%
3
3.7%
3.5%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.2%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Panevėžys goals (down), columns = Džiugas Telšiai goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
Panevėžys is 0.23 points better than Džiugas Telšiai in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
Panevėžys is 0.02 goals worse than Džiugas Telšiai in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
Panevėžys is 0.57 goals better than Džiugas Telšiai in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Panevėžys
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
0.54
0.46
1.06
0.65
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.75
0.60
0.50
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
1.10
0.20
0.33
0.33
1.43
0.14
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Džiugas Telšiai
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.31
0.75
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
0.92
0.29
1.14
0.50
0.67
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.47
0.33
0.44
0.88
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Panevėžys
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
0.77
0.46
0.88
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.80
0.60
0.50
0.70
1.10
vs Weaker (10)
1.20
0.50
1.33
0.33
1.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Džiugas Telšiai
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.62
0.44
0.57
0.93
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.77
0.57
0.57
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.59
0.67
0.33
0.75
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
82.1%
1.26
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Superbet
1.25
+9.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
Panevėžys's squad is €1m more valuable than Džiugas Telšiai's (€6m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
Panevėžys and Džiugas Telšiai have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
Panevėžys and Džiugas Telšiai have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
Panevėžys and Džiugas Telšiai have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →