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Panevėžys vs Džiugas Telšiai Result & Analysis

Date: 03/08/2026
Time: 16:30
Final 1-1
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Vs
43%
31%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Panevėžys and Dėmiai Telšiai face off in the Lithuania: A Lyga, with Panevėžys coming off a draw against Dėmiai Telšiai in their last match, resulting in a 1-1 score. The model's selection is a home win, with a 43% chance of Panevėžys taking the win, 31% for a draw, and 26% for Dėmiai Telšiai's victory. The expected total goals is 2.2, with the most likely total being 2 goals.

Panevėžys' home form against similar opponents sees them scoring an average of 1.45 goals and conceding 0.64 goals. Dėmiai Telšiai's away form against similar opponents sees them scoring an average of 1.75 goals and conceding 0.5 goals. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals has an 82.1% probability of occurring, with a 10% edge. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, occurring with a 14.4% probability. The home side has a 43% chance of winning, a 31% chance of drawing, and a 26% chance of losing. The model's selections are Under 3.5 goals (82.1%), with a 10% edge, and the home win (43%), draw (31%), and away win (26%) are all available selections.

Results analysis

The draw at Panevėžys extends their run of draws, having come off a draw in their last outing against Dėiugas Telšiai. The final score was a 1-1 stalemate, a result that mirrored their previous match against the same opponent. The pre-match favourite, a home win, did not come through, as the model's selection was incorrect. The model had predicted a home win with a probability of 43%. The suggested picks included under 3.5 goals, which hit with a probability of 82.1%. The most likely total goals were predicted to be 2, with a probability of 28%. The most likely scores were 1-1, 1-0, and 0-0, each with a specific probability.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Panevėžys win✗ Miss
42.7%
Avg Implied 34.3% · @ 2.62
Edge
+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.85
Dafabet
2.80
Betano
2.72
Superbet
2.72
Pinnacle
2.70
Draw✓ Hit
31.3%
Avg Implied 29.1% · @ 3.09
Edge
+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.32
Bet365
3.30
10Bet
3.25
Betano
3.20
Dafabet
3.20
Džiugas Telšiai win✗ Miss
26.0%
Avg Implied 36.7% · @ 2.45
Edge
-10.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.62
Marathonbet
2.61
Pinnacle
2.55
William Hil
2.50
Superbet
2.50

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D01L41W23L31W20W30W12L11D03LA·BAN18/10H·FK 22/10A·DŽI26/10A·KAU02/11H·FK 08/11A·RAD29/04A·ATM20/05A·MIN23/06H·HEG04/07A·KAU11/07
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.271.310.921.941.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.351.551.201.001.502.10
vs Weaker (10)2.300.701.670.672.570.71
Clean sheet %30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D14L14L41W22D20W00D12L10W01LH·SUD18/10A·HEG23/10H·PAN26/10H·FK 02/11A·ŠIA08/11A·NEP22/04H·BAN20/05A·ŠIA24/06H·BAN19/07A·TRA26/07
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.330.941.191.291.50
vs Stronger (13)0.851.690.861.710.831.67
vs Similar (17)1.291.061.000.781.621.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%022%128%220%311%45%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.6%
@ 1.28-5.0%
Under 1.5
34.4%
@ 3.09+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Under
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.24
10Bet
3.20
Unibet
3.15
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
37.5%
@ 1.94-9.9%
Under 2.5
62.5%
@ 1.75+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.02
SBO
2.01
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
Under
Pinnacle
1.82
Betfair
1.80
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.77
10Bet
1.77
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.9%
@ 3.27-9.9%
Under 3.5
82.1%
@ 1.26+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.34
Betfair
3.30
Under
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Superbet
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.7%
@ 1.72-8.2%
No
55.3%
@ 1.93+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.83
William Hil
1.75
Superbet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
No
Betfair
2.05
Unibet
2.00
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.96
William Hil
1.95

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.4%@ 5.55+6.7%
1-0
12.8%@ 7.69+7.3%
0-0
12.5%@ 8.26+7.3%
0-1
9.1%@ 7.41+3.3%
2-0
8.9%@ 12.10+5.4%
2-1
8.3%@ 9.04+3.6%
1-2
6.1%@ 8.62+1.1%
0-2
4.8%@ 11.38+1.1%
Panevėžys goals ↓
Džiugas Telšiai goals →
01234
012%9.1%4.8%1.5%0.3%
113%14%6.1%1.9%0.4%
28.9%8.3%3.8%1.2%0.3%
33.7%3.5%1.6%0.5%0.1%
41.2%1.1%0.5%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Panevėžys goals (down), columns = Džiugas Telšiai goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
Panevėžys is 0.23 points better than Džiugas Telšiai in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.14).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
Panevėžys is 0.02 goals worse than Džiugas Telšiai in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.14).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
Panevėžys is 0.57 goals better than Džiugas Telšiai in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.57).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W00D30W11D21W00D10W01L00D02LA·BAN18/10H·FK 22/10A·DŽI26/10A·KAU02/11H·FK 08/11A·RAD29/04A·ATM20/05A·MIN23/06H·HEG04/07A·KAU11/07
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.570.540.461.060.65
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.700.750.600.500.801.00
vs Weaker (10)1.100.200.330.331.430.14
Clean sheet %60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L03L10W21W00D00D11D10W00DH·SUD18/10A·HEG23/10H·PAN26/10H·FK 02/11A·ŠIA08/11A·NEP22/04H·BAN20/05A·ŠIA24/06H·BAN19/07A·TRA26/07
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.670.310.750.710.57
vs Stronger (13)0.380.920.291.140.500.67
vs Similar (17)0.590.470.330.440.880.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L11D12L10W20W20W11D11D01LA·BAN18/10H·FK 22/10A·DŽI26/10A·KAU02/11H·FK 08/11A·RAD29/04A·ATM20/05A·MIN23/06H·HEG04/07A·KAU11/07
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.700.770.460.880.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.650.800.600.500.701.10
vs Weaker (10)1.200.501.330.331.140.57
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D12L11D31W01L20W00D01L00D01LH·SUD18/10A·HEG23/10H·PAN26/10H·FK 02/11A·ŠIA08/11A·NEP22/04H·BAN20/05A·ŠIA24/06H·BAN19/07A·TRA26/07
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.670.620.440.570.93
vs Stronger (13)0.460.770.570.570.331.00
vs Similar (17)0.710.590.670.330.750.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.582.1%1.26
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Superbet
1.25
+9.9%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
Panevėžys's squad is €1m more valuable than Džiugas Telšiai's (€6m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
Panevėžys and Džiugas Telšiai have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
Panevėžys and Džiugas Telšiai have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
Panevėžys and Džiugas Telšiai have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
PAN wins
4
Draws
2
DT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Panevėžys vs Džiugas Telšiai · H/A from PAN
DateH/AGameScore
26/10/25ADžiugas Telšiai Vs PAN1-4
08/08/25HPAN Vs Džiugas Telšiai0-1
13/06/25ADžiugas Telšiai Vs PAN1-1
12/04/25HPAN Vs Džiugas Telšiai0-1
22/10/24HPAN Vs Džiugas Telšiai0-0
18/10/24HPAN Vs Džiugas Telšiai1-0
27/07/24ADžiugas Telšiai Vs PAN3-3
02/03/24ADžiugas Telšiai Vs PAN0-0

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/07/26AKauno Žalgiris Vs PAN3-0
04/07/26HPAN Vs Hegelmann Litauen1-1
23/06/26AMinija Vs PAN2-1
20/05/26AAtmosfera Vs PAN0-3
29/04/26ARadviliškis Vs PAN0-2
08/11/25HPAN Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius3-1
02/11/25AKauno Žalgiris Vs PAN3-2
26/10/25ADžiugas Telšiai Vs PAN1-4
22/10/25HPAN Vs FK Trakai0-1
18/10/25ABanga Vs PAN2-2

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/07/26ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs DT1-0
19/07/26HDT Vs Banga1-0
24/06/26AŠiauliai Vs DT2-1
20/05/26HDT Vs Banga0-0
22/04/26ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs DT0-2
08/11/25AŠiauliai Vs DT2-2
02/11/25HDT Vs FK Trakai4-1
26/10/25HDT Vs Panevėžys1-4
23/10/25AHegelmann Litauen Vs DT4-1
18/10/25HDT Vs Suduva Marijampole0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDL1.52
HomeWWLWD1.50
AwayLWWLL1.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%45%43%
AVG goals3.042.273.64
Over 1.5 %80%64%93%
Over 2.5 %58%36%75%
Over 3.5 %34%23%43%
Scored1.821.272.25
Conceded1.221.001.39
BTTS52%36%64%
Clean Sheet34%41%29%
Corners---
Cards---
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWL1.46
HomeDLWDW1.05
AwayLDWLL1.79
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%23%57%
AVG goals2.121.952.25
Over 1.5 %58%59%57%
Over 2.5 %34%27%39%
Over 3.5 %16%14%18%
Scored1.060.861.21
Conceded1.061.091.04
BTTS40%50%32%
Clean Sheet38%27%46%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole616
83%
2.7
142+12
2.7
83%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2122.30.3
-
2FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius612
67%
2.0
138+5
3.5
100%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2332.21.3
-
3Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris511
60%
2.2
101+9
2.2
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4242.00.2
-
4PanevėžysPanevėžys811
38%
1.4
98+1
2.1
88%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.11.0
-
5TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius811
38%
1.4
910-1
2.4
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.11.2
-
6BangaBanga811
38%
1.4
1012-2
2.8
75%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.21.5
-
7Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai78
29%
1.1
811-3
2.7
71%
29%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.11.6
-
8Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen86
12%
0.8
1016-6
3.2
100%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.22.0
-
9ŠiauliaiŠiauliai83
12%
0.4
621-15
3.4
88%
75%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2230.82.6
-
10FK TrakaiFK Trakai00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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