This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hegelmann Litauen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.20
1.92
1.23
1.47
1.18
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.77
1.36
2.11
1.44
1.54
1.31
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
0.75
1.50
0.75
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
78.4%
Under 1.5
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.6%
Under 2.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.3%
Under 3.5
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.5%
No
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
2-1
9.3%
1-0 ✓
8.3%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.2%
0-0
7.1%
0-1
6.2%
2-2
5.7%
Panevėžys goals ↓
Hegelmann Litauen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
6.2%
4.5%
1.8%
0.6%
1
8.3%
13%
7.2%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.5%
9.3%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
3
4.0%
4.9%
3.0%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.6%
2.0%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Panevėžys goals (down), columns = Hegelmann Litauen goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hegelmann Litauen
2.60
Kauno Žalgiris
2.25
Džiugas Telšiai
2.25
Atmosfera
2.25
Banga
2.20
Alternatyvus FK
2.00
Viltis Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.00
FKS Ukmergė
2.00
Nemunas
2.00
Babrungas
2.00
Ekranas
2.00
FK Trakai
2.00
Minija
2.00
Jonava
2.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Sendvaris
1.50
Dembava
1.50
VGTU Vilkai
1.50
Euforija
1.50
Sirijus Klaipėda
1.50
BFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Be1 NFA
1.50
Šiauliai
1.33
Klaipėdos FM
1.33
Nevėžis
1.33
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
Vilnius FA
0.99
Cementininkas Akmenė
0.99
Pempininkai Gargždai
0.99
Narjanta Kupiškis
0.99
Ataka Vilnius
0.99
Kazlų Rūda Kaunas
0.00
Šilutė
0.00
Širvėna Biržai
0.00
Utenis Utena
0.00
Tera
0.00
Venta
0.00
Trivartis Vilnius
0.00
Geležinis Vilkas
0.00
Fortūna Kaunas
0.00
Panevėžys
0.00
Ave.Ko
0.00
Utenos Utena
0.00
Saned Joniškis
0.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.00
Dainava
0.00
Sveikata
0.00
Panevėžys is 2.60 points worse than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 2.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
VGTU Vilkai
5.50
Ekranas
5.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
4.67
FKS Ukmergė
4.33
Alternatyvus FK
4.00
Dembava
4.00
Tauras
4.00
Kauno Žalgiris
3.75
Klaipėdos FM
3.67
Babrungas
3.67
Sendvaris
3.00
Euforija
3.00
FK Trakai
3.00
Jonava
3.00
Banga
2.60
Džiugas Telšiai
2.50
Sirijus Klaipėda
2.50
Garliava
2.50
Atmosfera
2.50
Hegelmann Litauen
2.20
Šiauliai
2.00
BFA
2.00
Minija
2.00
Vilnius FA
1.83
Cementininkas Akmenė
1.83
Pempininkai Gargždai
1.83
Narjanta Kupiškis
1.83
Ataka Vilnius
1.83
Nemunas
1.67
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Viltis Vilnius
1.50
Kazlų Rūda Kaunas
1.00
Šilutė
1.00
Trivartis Vilnius
1.00
Geležinis Vilkas
1.00
Fortūna Kaunas
1.00
Panevėžys
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.00
Be1 NFA
1.00
Sveikata
1.00
Nevėžis
1.00
Širvėna Biržai
0.00
Utenis Utena
0.00
Tera
0.00
Venta
0.00
Ave.Ko
0.00
Utenos Utena
0.00
Saned Joniškis
0.00
Dainava
0.00
Panevėžys is 1.20 goals worse than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alternatyvus FK
0.50
Kauno Žalgiris
0.50
Be1 NFA
0.50
Minija
0.50
Hegelmann Litauen
0.60
Ekranas
0.67
Banga
0.80
Viltis Vilnius
1.00
VGTU Vilkai
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
Atmosfera
1.25
Šiauliai
1.33
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.33
FKS Ukmergė
1.33
Jonava
1.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.50
Klaipėdos FM
1.67
Šilutė
2.00
Fortūna Kaunas
2.00
Panevėžys
2.00
Babrungas
2.00
Tauras
2.00
Dainava
2.00
FK Trakai
2.00
Nevėžis
2.33
Sirijus Klaipėda
2.50
Garliava
2.50
Sendvaris
3.00
Nemunas
3.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
3.00
BFA
3.00
Sveikata
3.00
Vilnius FA
3.15
Cementininkas Akmenė
3.15
Pempininkai Gargždai
3.15
Narjanta Kupiškis
3.15
Ataka Vilnius
3.15
Dembava
3.50
Kazlų Rūda Kaunas
4.00
Venta
4.00
Širvėna Biržai
5.00
Tera
5.00
Geležinis Vilkas
5.00
Saned Joniškis
5.00
Euforija
5.50
Utenis Utena
7.00
Ave.Ko
8.00
Utenos Utena
9.00
Trivartis Vilnius
10.00
Panevėžys is 1.40 goals worse than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 0.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Panevėžys or Draw✓ Hit
71.7%
Avg Implied -
45%
27%
28%
covers Panevėžys + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys or Hegelmann Litauen✓ Hit
73.0%
Avg Implied -
45%
27%
28%
covers Panevėžys + Hegelmann Litauen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hegelmann Litauen✗ Miss
55.4%
Avg Implied -
45%
27%
28%
covers Draw + Hegelmann Litauen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.6%
Under
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
47.2%
Under
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.5%
Under
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
70.7%
Under
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.8%
Under
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Panevėžys, so a minus line means Panevėžys give that many goals of a start and Hegelmann Litauen receive them. At -1, Panevėžys must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Panevėžys win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Panevėžys)Actual: Hegelmann Litauen
Panevėžys -2
9.6%
Draw -2
13.8%
Hegelmann Litauen +2
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Panevėžys)Actual: Draw
Panevėžys -1
23.5%
Draw -1
21.2%
Hegelmann Litauen +1
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Panevėžys)Actual: Panevėžys
Panevėžys +1
71.7%
Draw +1
16.1%
Hegelmann Litauen -1
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Panevėžys)Actual: Panevėžys
Panevėžys +2
87.7%
Draw +2
8.3%
Hegelmann Litauen -2
4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Panevėžys
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.50
0.46
0.54
1.18
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.57
0.60
0.50
0.55
0.64
vs Weaker (9)
1.56
0.33
0.00
0.67
2.33
0.17
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hegelmann Litauen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
0.85
0.62
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.64
1.11
0.67
0.54
0.62
vs Weaker (8)
0.38
0.38
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Panevėžys
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.60
0.77
0.38
1.24
0.76
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.76
0.80
0.50
0.73
1.00
vs Weaker (9)
1.67
0.22
0.67
0.00
2.17
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hegelmann Litauen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.63
1.08
0.62
0.94
0.65
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.00
0.73
1.00
0.78
1.00
0.69
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.38
1.25
0.25
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
MIN (3)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Panevėžys and Hegelmann Litauen have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Panevėžys and Hegelmann Litauen have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
Panevėžys and Hegelmann Litauen have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Panevėžys and Hegelmann Litauen have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
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Kauno Žalgiris
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Suduva Marijampole
Šiauliai
Džiugas Telšiai
Banga
FK Trakai
Dainava
Neptūną Klaipėda