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Panevėžys vs Kauno Žalgiris Result & Analysis

Date: 23/07/2022
Time: 14:00
Final 2-1
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Vs
43%
30%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Panevėžys win✓ Hit
43.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris win✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L11D10W12L02L50W12L21W00D02LA·KAU30/04H·HEG03/05H·DŽI15/05A·SUD21/05H·FK 19/06A·JON22/06H·ŠIA25/06A·BAN02/07H·MIL07/07A·MIL14/07
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.450.651.500.601.400.70
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.120.811.250.751.000.88
vs Weaker (4)2.750.002.500.003.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W21W03L21W40W10W11D11D02L00DH·PAN30/04A·DŽI04/05H·SUD14/05A·FK 22/05H·JON19/06A·ŠIA22/06H·BAN26/06A·FK 02/07A·RUŽ07/07H·RUŽ14/07
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.151.201.201.201.101.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)1.121.251.251.501.001.00
vs Weaker (12)1.171.171.171.001.171.33
Clean sheet %25% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%021%128%220%312%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.1%
Under 1.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.2%
Under 2.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.9%
Under 3.5
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.9%
No
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0
12.0%
0-0
11.4%
2-0
8.8%
0-1
8.6%
2-1 ✓
8.5%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
4.8%
Panevėžys goals ↓
Kauno Žalgiris goals →
01234
011%8.6%4.8%1.6%0.4%
112%14%6.3%2.1%0.5%
28.8%8.5%4.2%1.4%0.3%
33.8%3.8%1.8%0.6%0.1%
41.3%1.2%0.6%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Panevėžys goals (down), columns = Kauno Žalgiris goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.33
Kauno Žalgiris
1.75
Panevėžys
1.72
Hegelmann Litauen
1.69
FK Trakai
1.64
Suduva Marijampole
1.53
Šiauliai
1.39
Banga
0.83
Džiugas Telšiai
0.75
Jonava
0.08
Panevėžys is 0.03 points worse than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 1.75).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.36
Hegelmann Litauen
1.72
Kauno Žalgiris
1.53
FK Trakai
1.47
Panevėžys
1.39
Suduva Marijampole
1.33
Šiauliai
1.08
Džiugas Telšiai
0.94
Banga
0.92
Jonava
0.33
Panevėžys is 0.14 goals worse than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.53).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.75
Panevėžys
0.86
Hegelmann Litauen
0.89
Kauno Žalgiris
1.03
Šiauliai
1.08
Suduva Marijampole
1.11
FK Trakai
1.14
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.86
Jonava
2.86
Panevėžys is 0.17 goals better than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.03).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L00D12L02L30W11D11D00D01LA·KAU30/04H·HEG03/05H·DŽI15/05A·SUD21/05H·FK 19/06A·JON22/06H·ŠIA25/06A·BAN02/07H·MIL07/07A·MIL14/07
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.650.400.500.400.800.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.560.500.500.500.620.50
vs Weaker (4)1.000.000.500.001.500.00
Clean sheet %70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W03L11D10W10W01L00D01L00DH·PAN30/04A·DŽI04/05H·SUD14/05A·FK 22/05H·JON19/06A·ŠIA22/06H·BAN26/06A·FK 02/07A·RUŽ07/07H·RUŽ14/07
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.350.550.300.700.400.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.250.500.000.750.500.25
vs Weaker (12)0.420.580.500.670.330.50
Clean sheet %60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W10W00D00D20W01L10W00D01LA·KAU30/04H·HEG03/05H·DŽI15/05A·SUD21/05H·FK 19/06A·JON22/06H·ŠIA25/06A·BAN02/07H·MIL07/07A·MIL14/07
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.251.000.200.600.30
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.560.310.750.250.380.38
vs Weaker (4)1.750.002.000.001.500.00
Clean sheet %80% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W11D00D10W30W00D10W11D01L00DH·PAN30/04A·DŽI04/05H·SUD14/05A·FK 22/05H·JON19/06A·ŠIA22/06H·BAN26/06A·FK 02/07A·RUŽ07/07H·RUŽ14/07
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.650.900.500.700.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.880.751.250.750.500.75
vs Weaker (12)0.750.580.670.330.830.83
Clean sheet %50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 11.5 corners83.2%--------
Under 3.580.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners74.3%--------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
Panevėžys's squad is €4m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€6m vs €10m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
Panevėžys's attack is €2m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€2m vs €4m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
Panevėžys and Kauno Žalgiris have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
Panevėžys's defence is €2m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€2m vs €4m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
PAN wins
0
Draws
1
KŽ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Panevėžys vs Kauno Žalgiris · H/A from PAN
DateH/AGameScore
30/04/22AKauno Žalgiris Vs PAN2-1
11/03/22HPAN Vs Kauno Žalgiris1-0

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/07/22AMilsami Orhei Vs PAN2-0
07/07/22HPAN Vs Milsami Orhei0-0
02/07/22ABanga Vs PAN1-2
25/06/22HPAN Vs Šiauliai1-2
22/06/22AJonava Vs PAN0-5
19/06/22HPAN Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius0-2
21/05/22ASuduva Marijampole Vs PAN2-1
15/05/22HPAN Vs Džiugas Telšiai1-0
03/05/22HPAN Vs Hegelmann Litauen1-1
30/04/22AKauno Žalgiris Vs PAN2-1

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/07/22HKŽ Vs Ružomberok0-0
07/07/22ARužomberok Vs KŽ2-0
02/07/22AFK Trakai Vs KŽ1-1
26/06/22HKŽ Vs Banga1-1
22/06/22AŠiauliai Vs KŽ0-1
19/06/22HKŽ Vs Jonava4-0
22/05/22AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs KŽ1-2
14/05/22HKŽ Vs Suduva Marijampole0-3
04/05/22ADžiugas Telšiai Vs KŽ1-2
30/04/22HKŽ Vs Panevėžys2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDL1.85
HomeDWLLD2.00
AwayLLWWL1.70
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %55%60%50%
AVG goals2.102.102.10
Over 1.5 %65%70%60%
Over 2.5 %45%40%50%
Over 3.5 %10%10%10%
Scored1.451.501.40
Conceded0.650.600.70
BTTS30%30%30%
Clean Sheet60%60%60%
Corners9.504.0015.00
Cards3.00-3.00
Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDLD1.35
HomeWLWDD1.30
AwayWWWDL1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %35%30%40%
AVG goals2.352.402.30
Over 1.5 %75%70%80%
Over 2.5 %50%60%40%
Over 3.5 %20%30%10%
Scored1.151.201.10
Conceded1.201.201.20
BTTS55%50%60%
Clean Sheet25%30%20%
Corners7.509.006.00
Cards3.003.00-

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3684
72%
2.3
8527+58
3.1
78%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2332.40.8
-
2Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3663
50%
1.8
5537+18
2.6
81%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.51.0
-
3PanevėžysPanevėžys3662
50%
1.7
5031+19
2.2
67%
47%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.40.9
-
4Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3661
44%
1.7
6232+30
2.6
75%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.70.9
-
5FK TrakaiFK Trakai3659
47%
1.6
5341+12
2.6
72%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3655
42%
1.5
4840+8
2.4
81%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.31.1
-
7ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3650
36%
1.4
3939+0
2.2
61%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.11.1
-
8BangaBanga3630
17%
0.8
3354-21
2.4
75%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.91.5
-
9Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3627
14%
0.8
3467-33
2.8
69%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.91.9
-
10JonavaJonava363
0%
0.1
12103-91
3.2
86%
64%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.32.9
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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