Panevėžys vs Šiauliai Result & Analysis

Panevėžys’ defensive record is solid, conceding just 0.67 goals per match at home against similarly matched opposition, while Šiauliai has also been stingy away, allowing 0.67 goals per game. Both sides have struggled to find the net, with Panevėžys averaging 1.5 goals and Šiauliai only 0.17. The model therefore projects a tight, low-scoring affair, with the most likely outcome a Panevėžys win. The expected total is 1.6 goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 0-0, carrying a 20.6% chance. Home win probability stands at 44%, draw 36%, and away win 20%. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 goals at 91.6% and Under 2.5 goals at 77.3%. The recent form narrative notes Panevėžys coming off a win, whereas Šiauliai has endured two straight defeats.

The upset came early as Panevėžys, who had just snapped a winless streak, fell to a 1-2 defeat at Šiauliai, ending their brief revival. The pre-match favourite was Panevėžys, given a 44% chance of victory, but the model’s pick was wrong, as the away side claimed the win. The model’s selections were largely accurate: the Under 3.5 goal market hit its 91.6% probability, while Under 2.5 missed at 77.3%. The final score of 1-2 matched the actual result, confirming the away triumph and underscoring the unpredictability of the A Lyga.