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Panevėžys vs Šiauliai Result & Analysis

Date: 24/07/2023
Time: 17:00
Final 2-0
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Vs
56%
27%
16%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Šiauliai
Šiauliai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Panevėžys is the clear favourite to win against Šiauliai, with a 56% chance of a home victory, a 27% chance of a draw and a 16% chance of an away win. The model expects a modest 2.3 goals in total, most likely a single-goal match with a 1-0 scoreline at 14.5%. Panevėžys, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.67 goals scored and only 0.58 conceded, while Šiauliai on the road averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. The model’s single selection is Under 3.5, with a 79.7% probability. The final result of the last match was a 2-0 home win for Panevėžys, and the recent form shows Panevėžys coming off a win while Šiauliai has endured two straight defeats.

Results analysis

The win extends Panevėžys’ recent run, adding a 2-0 triumph to a five-match sequence that now reads WLLWD. The model’s favourite was a home win, assigned a 56% probability, and the prediction proved correct as Panevėžys sealed the victory. The most likely scoreline was 2-0, with a 28% chance, and the final result matched that expectation. The model also suggested Under 3.5 goals, with a 79.7% probability, and this selection hit, as the match produced only two goals. All other model picks were settled, confirming that the favoured outcome and the majority of selections came through.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Panevėžys win✓ Hit
56.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai win✗ Miss
16.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D12L10W10W40W10W10W30W22D10WA·ŠIA21/05A·FK 28/05H·HEG03/06A·DAI07/06H·DŽI11/06A·BAN25/06H·FK 30/06H·KAU07/07H·MIL13/07A·MIL20/07
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.670.471.730.531.600.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.670.541.670.581.670.50
vs Weaker (6)1.670.172.000.331.330.00
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-332W00D20W22D11D11D20W13L23L32WA·HEG12/05H·PAN21/05H·DAI27/05A·FK 04/06A·DŽI07/06H·BAN10/06H·FK 24/06H·HEG28/06A·KAU02/07H·SUD08/07
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.001.800.531.131.47
vs Stronger (4)1.501.752.000.001.003.50
vs Similar (23)1.481.001.730.731.251.25
vs Weaker (3)1.330.002.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%021%128%220%312%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.3%
Under 1.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.7%
Under 2.5
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.3%
Under 3.5
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
42.4%
No
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.5%
1-1
12.6%
2-0 ✓
12.3%
0-0
11.1%
2-1
9.1%
3-0
6.5%
0-1
6.1%
3-1
4.8%
Panevėžys goals ↓
Šiauliai goals →
01234
011%6.1%2.7%0.7%0.1%
114%13%4.2%1.0%0.2%
212%9.1%3.3%0.8%0.1%
36.5%4.8%1.7%0.4%0.1%
42.5%1.9%0.7%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Panevėžys goals (down), columns = Šiauliai goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Panevėžys
2.42
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.64
Šiauliai
1.64
Kauno Žalgiris
1.64
Banga
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
0.97
Dainava
0.86
Džiugas Telšiai
0.84
FK Trakai
0.69
Be1 NFA
0.50
Panevėžys is 0.78 points better than Šiauliai in terms of average points per game (2.42 vs 1.64).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.86
Panevėžys
1.78
Hegelmann Litauen
1.72
Kauno Žalgiris
1.69
Šiauliai
1.33
Suduva Marijampole
0.78
Džiugas Telšiai
0.74
FK Trakai
0.72
Dainava
0.69
Banga
0.61
Be1 NFA
0.50
Panevėžys is 0.44 goals better than Šiauliai in terms of goals scored per game (1.78 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Panevėžys
0.39
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.78
Be1 NFA
1.00
Šiauliai
1.00
Dainava
1.11
Kauno Žalgiris
1.11
Hegelmann Litauen
1.19
Banga
1.44
Džiugas Telšiai
1.45
Suduva Marijampole
1.67
FK Trakai
1.72
Panevėžys is 0.61 goals better than Šiauliai in terms of goals conceded per game (0.39 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D10W10W20W10W10W10W10W00DA·ŠIA21/05A·FK 28/05H·HEG03/06A·DAI07/06H·DŽI11/06A·BAN25/06H·FK 30/06H·KAU07/07H·MIL13/07A·MIL20/07
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.270.730.330.730.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.670.290.580.330.750.25
vs Weaker (6)1.000.171.330.330.670.00
Clean sheet %77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-222D00D10W21W00D01L10W11D12L11DA·HEG12/05H·PAN21/05H·DAI27/05A·FK 04/06A·DŽI07/06H·BAN10/06H·FK 24/06H·HEG28/06A·KAU02/07H·SUD08/07
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.471.000.200.730.73
vs Stronger (4)1.001.001.000.001.002.00
vs Similar (23)0.830.430.910.270.750.58
vs Weaker (3)1.000.001.500.000.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D12L00D00D20W00D00D20W12L10WA·ŠIA21/05A·FK 28/05H·HEG03/06A·DAI07/06H·DŽI11/06A·BAN25/06H·FK 30/06H·KAU07/07H·MIL13/07A·MIL20/07
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.201.000.200.870.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.000.251.080.250.920.25
vs Weaker (6)0.670.000.670.000.670.00
Clean sheet %87% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D10W01L11D10W10W02L11D21WA·HEG12/05H·PAN21/05H·DAI27/05A·FK 04/06A·DŽI07/06H·BAN10/06H·FK 24/06H·HEG28/06A·KAU02/07H·SUD08/07
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.530.800.330.400.73
vs Stronger (4)0.500.751.000.000.001.50
vs Similar (23)0.650.570.820.450.500.67
vs Weaker (3)0.330.000.500.000.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.579.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
Panevėžys and Šiauliai have a similar squad value (both €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
DAI (0)
€0m
Panevėžys and Šiauliai have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
Panevėžys and Šiauliai have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
DAI (0)
€0m
Panevėžys and Šiauliai have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
2
PAN wins
1
Draws
3
ŠIA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Panevėžys vs Šiauliai · H/A from PAN
DateH/AGameScore
21/05/23AŠiauliai Vs PAN0-0
01/04/23HPAN Vs Šiauliai3-1
17/09/22AŠiauliai Vs PAN1-0
13/08/22HPAN Vs Šiauliai1-2
25/06/22HPAN Vs Šiauliai1-2
16/04/22AŠiauliai Vs PAN0-3

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/07/23AMilsami Orhei Vs PAN0-1
13/07/23HPAN Vs Milsami Orhei2-2
07/07/23HPAN Vs Kauno Žalgiris3-0
30/06/23HPAN Vs FK Trakai1-0
25/06/23ABanga Vs PAN0-1
11/06/23HPAN Vs Džiugas Telšiai4-0
07/06/23ADainava Vs PAN0-1
03/06/23HPAN Vs Hegelmann Litauen1-0
28/05/23AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs PAN2-1
21/05/23AŠiauliai Vs PAN0-0

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/07/23HŠIA Vs Suduva Marijampole3-2
02/07/23AKauno Žalgiris Vs ŠIA3-2
28/06/23HŠIA Vs Hegelmann Litauen1-3
24/06/23HŠIA Vs FK Trakai2-0
10/06/23HŠIA Vs Banga1-1
07/06/23ADžiugas Telšiai Vs ŠIA1-1
04/06/23AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs ŠIA2-2
27/05/23HŠIA Vs Dainava2-0
21/05/23HŠIA Vs Panevėžys0-0
12/05/23AHegelmann Litauen Vs ŠIA2-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDW1.86
HomeWWWWD1.96
AwayDLWWW1.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%58%50%
AVG goals2.282.272.29
Over 1.5 %64%65%62%
Over 2.5 %46%50%42%
Over 3.5 %22%23%21%
Scored1.501.501.50
Conceded0.780.770.79
BTTS42%46%38%
Clean Sheet48%42%54%
Corners9.005.5012.50
Cards5.339.003.50
Šiauliai
Šiauliai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLW1.66
HomeWDWLW1.92
AwayWWDDL1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%54%38%
AVG goals2.442.272.62
Over 1.5 %70%69%71%
Over 2.5 %44%35%54%
Over 3.5 %28%23%33%
Scored1.361.461.25
Conceded1.080.811.38
BTTS46%38%54%
Clean Sheet40%50%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PanevėžysPanevėžys3687
72%
2.4
6414+50
2.2
67%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.80.4
-
2FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3675
64%
2.1
6728+39
2.6
72%
44%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2331.90.8
-
3Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3659
42%
1.6
6140+21
2.8
78%
44%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.71.1
-
4Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3659
50%
1.6
6243+19
2.9
72%
53%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.71.2
-
5ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3659
42%
1.6
4836+12
2.3
69%
36%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.31.0
-
6BangaBanga3636
28%
1.0
2252-30
2.1
58%
31%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.61.4
-
7Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3635
28%
1.0
2860-32
2.4
72%
39%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.81.7
-
8Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3832
16%
0.8
2855-27
2.2
68%
34%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.71.4
-
9DainavaDainava3631
19%
0.9
2540-15
1.8
56%
33%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.1
-
10FK TrakaiFK Trakai3625
14%
0.7
2662-36
2.4
64%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.7
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA21
0%
0.5
12-1
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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