Panevėžys is the clear favourite to win against Šiauliai, with a 56% chance of a home victory, a 27% chance of a draw and a 16% chance of an away win. The model expects a modest 2.3 goals in total, most likely a single-goal match with a 1-0 scoreline at 14.5%. Panevėžys, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.67 goals scored and only 0.58 conceded, while Šiauliai on the road averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. The model’s single selection is Under 3.5, with a 79.7% probability. The final result of the last match was a 2-0 home win for Panevėžys, and the recent form shows Panevėžys coming off a win while Šiauliai has endured two straight defeats.
Results analysis
The win extends Panevėžys’ recent run, adding a 2-0 triumph to a five-match sequence that now reads WLLWD. The model’s favourite was a home win, assigned a 56% probability, and the prediction proved correct as Panevėžys sealed the victory. The most likely scoreline was 2-0, with a 28% chance, and the final result matched that expectation. The model also suggested Under 3.5 goals, with a 79.7% probability, and this selection hit, as the match produced only two goals. All other model picks were settled, confirming that the favoured outcome and the majority of selections came through.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Panevėžys win✓ Hit
56.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai win✗ Miss
16.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Panevėžys
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
0.47
1.73
0.53
1.60
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.67
0.54
1.67
0.58
1.67
0.50
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.17
2.00
0.33
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Šiauliai
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.00
1.80
0.53
1.13
1.47
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
1.75
2.00
0.00
1.00
3.50
vs Similar (23)
1.48
1.00
1.73
0.73
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.3%
Under 1.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.7%
Under 2.5
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.3%
Under 3.5
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
42.4%
No
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.5%
1-1
12.6%
2-0 ✓
12.3%
0-0
11.1%
2-1
9.1%
3-0
6.5%
0-1
6.1%
3-1
4.8%
Panevėžys goals ↓
Šiauliai goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
6.1%
2.7%
0.7%
0.1%
1
14%
13%
4.2%
1.0%
0.2%
2
12%
9.1%
3.3%
0.8%
0.1%
3
6.5%
4.8%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%
4
2.5%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Panevėžys goals (down), columns = Šiauliai goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Panevėžys
2.42
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.64
Šiauliai
1.64
Kauno Žalgiris
1.64
Banga
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
0.97
Dainava
0.86
Džiugas Telšiai
0.84
FK Trakai
0.69
Be1 NFA
0.50
Panevėžys is 0.78 points better than Šiauliai in terms of average points per game (2.42 vs 1.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.86
Panevėžys
1.78
Hegelmann Litauen
1.72
Kauno Žalgiris
1.69
Šiauliai
1.33
Suduva Marijampole
0.78
Džiugas Telšiai
0.74
FK Trakai
0.72
Dainava
0.69
Banga
0.61
Be1 NFA
0.50
Panevėžys is 0.44 goals better than Šiauliai in terms of goals scored per game (1.78 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Panevėžys
0.39
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.78
Be1 NFA
1.00
Šiauliai
1.00
Dainava
1.11
Kauno Žalgiris
1.11
Hegelmann Litauen
1.19
Banga
1.44
Džiugas Telšiai
1.45
Suduva Marijampole
1.67
FK Trakai
1.72
Panevėžys is 0.61 goals better than Šiauliai in terms of goals conceded per game (0.39 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Panevėžys
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.27
0.73
0.33
0.73
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.29
0.58
0.33
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.17
1.33
0.33
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Šiauliai
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
1.00
0.20
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.43
0.91
0.27
0.75
0.58
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Panevėžys
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.20
1.00
0.20
0.87
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.00
0.25
1.08
0.25
0.92
0.25
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
87% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Šiauliai
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.80
0.33
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.57
0.82
0.45
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
Panevėžys and Šiauliai have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
DAI (0)
€0m
Panevėžys and Šiauliai have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
Panevėžys and Šiauliai have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
DAI (0)
€0m
Panevėžys and Šiauliai have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →