Panevėžys vs Šiauliai Result & Analysis

Panevėžys’ defensive record at home is modest, conceding 0.91 goals per game, while Šiauliai’s away form shows a heavier 1.67 conceded. The model projects a tight 1.9-goal match, most likely 1-0 for Panevėžys, with a 17.2% chance. The home side’s 0.73 scoring average and the visitors’ 0.92 attack against similar opposition suggest a low-scoring affair. The model’s pick is a Panevėžys win, with a 48% probability, a draw at 33%, and an away win at 19%. Suggested selections include Under 3.5 goals at 87.5% and Under 2.5 goals at 70.4%. Panevėžys are coming off a win, while Šiauliai return after two defeats. The expected total of 1.9 goals aligns with the under-2.5 edge, reinforcing the forecast of a narrow Panevėžys victory.

The win for Panevėžys, which had just lifted a victory to end a mixed run, was a shock as the pre-match favourite, a Home win at 48%, failed to materialise. The match finished 1-3 in favour of Šiauliai, confirming an Away win. The model’s call was therefore incorrect. Its other selections also fell short: Under 3.5, with an 87.5% probability, missed, and Under 2.5, at 70.4%, missed as well. The most likely scoreline of 1-0 (17.2%) and 0-0 (16.2%) did not occur, and the predicted total of 2 goals, at 28%, was not reached. The game saw Šiauliai dominate the final tally.