Panevėžys vs Šiauliai Result & Analysis

Panevėžys’ defensive record shows a tight match ahead, with 1.1 goals conceded per game at home against similar opposition, while Šiauliai’s away form allows 1.73 goals to comparable teams. The model favours a Panevėžys win, giving the home side a 45% chance, a 31% chance of a draw and a 24% chance of a Šiauliai victory. The expected total is 2.2 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at a 28% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.2% chance. Panevėžys typically scores 0.9 goals at home against similar teams and concedes 1.1, whereas Šiauliai scores 1.09 and concedes 1.73 on the road. The model’s selection includes Under 3.5 with an 81.6% probability. Recent form shows Panevėžys coming off a win, while Šiauliai has endured two straight defeats.

The upset came as Panevėžys, the pre-match favourite with a 45% chance of victory, fell short, losing 1-3 to Šiauliai. The model’s call was wrong, and the final result was an away win. The suggested pick of Under 3.5, with an 81.6% probability, missed as the match saw four goals. Panevėžys entered the game on a winning streak, their last five results reading WLLWD and a recent 2-0 victory over FK Zalgiris Vilnius, while Šiauliai were still recovering from two straight defeats, having lost 1-2 to Suduva Marijampole. The match finished with the most likely scoreline of 1-1, yet the actual score was 1-3, confirming the model’s prediction was incorrect.