Panevėžys are tipped to win, a 55% chance that they will come away with the victory, while a draw sits at 26% and Šiauliai’s odds of triumph are 19%. The match is expected to see 2.6 goals on average, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.6% probability. Panevėžys, playing at home against a similarly-rated opponent, normally scores 1.22 goals and concedes only 0.44. Šiauliai, on the road, averages 1.18 goals scored but gives up 2.27. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.7%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Under 5.5 (95.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.0%), Home +2 handicap (93.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.0%) and Under 4.5 (88.3%). Panevėžys’ recent form, featuring a win after a string of mixed results, gives them a slight edge, while Šiauliai’s recent two defeats suggest a cautious approach.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Panevėžys win
53.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai win
19.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Panevėžys
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.07
1.25
0.58
1.89
1.39
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.41
1.14
1.22
0.44
1.54
1.62
vs Weaker (8)
2.25
0.88
1.33
1.00
2.80
0.80
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Šiauliai
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.77
1.47
1.88
1.38
1.62
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.00
1.00
2.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.29
1.92
1.43
1.86
1.10
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
0.33
3.00
1.00
3.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.8%
Under 1.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.1%
Under 2.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.7%
Under 3.5
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.5%
No
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-0
12.0%
2-0
10.7%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
9.2%
0-1
6.0%
3-0
5.8%
1-2
5.2%
Panevėžys goals ↓
Šiauliai goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.2%
6.0%
3.2%
0.9%
0.2%
1
12%
13%
5.2%
1.5%
0.3%
2
11%
9.5%
4.2%
1.3%
0.3%
3
5.8%
5.2%
2.3%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.4%
2.1%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Panevėžys goals (down), columns = Šiauliai goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
Panevėžys is 1.00 points better than Šiauliai in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 0.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
Panevėžys is 0.38 goals better than Šiauliai in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 0.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
Panevėžys is 1.62 goals better than Šiauliai in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.62).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Panevėžys or Draw
80.7%
Avg Implied -
54%
27%
19%
covers Panevėžys + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys or Šiauliai
73.0%
Avg Implied -
54%
27%
19%
covers Panevėžys + Šiauliai
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Šiauliai
46.3%
Avg Implied -
54%
27%
19%
covers Draw + Šiauliai
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5
Over
80.4%
Under
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5
Over
48.5%
Under
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5
Over
22.5%
Under
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 3.5
Over
8.3%
Under
91.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5
Over
58.9%
Under
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5
Over
22.3%
Under
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Panevėžys, so a minus line means Panevėžys give that many goals of a start and Šiauliai receive them. At -1, Panevėžys must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Panevėžys win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Panevėžys)
Panevėžys -2
12.7%
Draw -2
16.9%
Šiauliai +2
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Panevėžys)
Panevėžys -1
29.6%
Draw -1
24.1%
Šiauliai +1
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Panevėžys)
Panevėžys +1
80.7%
Draw +1
12.6%
Šiauliai -1
6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Panevėžys)
Panevėžys +2
93.3%
Draw +2
5.0%
Šiauliai -2
1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Panevėžys
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
0.58
0.17
0.94
0.61
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.50
0.56
0.11
0.77
0.77
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.25
0.67
0.33
1.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Šiauliai
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.71
0.94
0.62
0.77
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.96
0.71
1.00
0.40
0.90
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Panevėžys
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.63
0.67
0.42
0.94
0.78
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.64
0.67
0.33
0.77
0.85
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.62
0.67
0.67
1.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Šiauliai
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.90
0.76
0.94
0.77
0.85
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.96
0.71
0.86
0.70
1.10
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
Panevėžys and Šiauliai have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
Panevėžys and Šiauliai have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
Panevėžys and Šiauliai have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
Panevėžys and Šiauliai have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Suduva Marijampole
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Kauno Žalgiris
TransINVEST Vilnius
Banga
Džiugas Telšiai
Hegelmann Litauen
FK Trakai