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Panevėžys vs Suduva Marijampole Result & Analysis

Date: 02/10/2022
Time: 14:55
Final 2-0
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Vs
36%
30%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Panevėžys win✓ Hit
36.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole win✗ Miss
33.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L21W14L12L21W32W11D01L11D01LA·MIL14/07H·KAU23/07A·SUD07/08H·ŠIA13/08H·BAN21/08H·DŽI27/08A·HEG02/09H·FK 07/09A·JON10/09A·ŠIA17/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.380.931.530.871.211.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)1.091.041.250.920.911.18
vs Weaker (6)2.500.502.670.672.330.33
Clean sheet %41% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L22D41W00D21W20W21W12L20W01LA·VIB28/07A·KAU02/08H·PAN07/08A·BAN14/08H·FK 21/08A·JON27/08H·HEG06/09A·DŽI10/09H·BAN18/09A·FK 27/09
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.400.971.601.001.200.93
vs Stronger (8)0.751.380.332.331.000.80
vs Similar (22)1.640.821.920.671.301.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%019%128%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.0%
Under 1.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.5%
Under 2.5
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.7%
Under 3.5
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.7%
No
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
10.6%
1-0
10.0%
0-1
9.4%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
7.6%
2-0 ✓
6.9%
0-2
6.2%
Panevėžys goals ↓
Suduva Marijampole goals →
01234
011%9.4%6.2%2.4%0.7%
110.0%14%7.6%2.9%0.9%
26.9%8.0%4.6%1.8%0.5%
32.8%3.2%1.9%0.7%0.2%
40.9%1.0%0.6%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Panevėžys goals (down), columns = Suduva Marijampole goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.33
Kauno Žalgiris
1.75
Panevėžys
1.72
Hegelmann Litauen
1.69
FK Trakai
1.64
Suduva Marijampole
1.53
Šiauliai
1.39
Banga
0.83
Džiugas Telšiai
0.75
Jonava
0.08
Panevėžys is 0.19 points better than Suduva Marijampole in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 1.53).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.36
Hegelmann Litauen
1.72
Kauno Žalgiris
1.53
FK Trakai
1.47
Panevėžys
1.39
Suduva Marijampole
1.33
Šiauliai
1.08
Džiugas Telšiai
0.94
Banga
0.92
Jonava
0.33
Panevėžys is 0.06 goals better than Suduva Marijampole in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.75
Panevėžys
0.86
Hegelmann Litauen
0.89
Kauno Žalgiris
1.03
Šiauliai
1.08
Suduva Marijampole
1.11
FK Trakai
1.14
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.86
Jonava
2.86
Panevėžys is 0.25 goals better than Suduva Marijampole in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.11).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W02L01L20W20W10W00D11D00DA·MIL14/07H·KAU23/07A·SUD07/08H·ŠIA13/08H·BAN21/08H·DŽI27/08A·HEG02/09H·FK 07/09A·JON10/09A·ŠIA17/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.690.410.670.330.710.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.570.480.580.420.550.55
vs Weaker (6)1.170.171.000.001.330.33
Clean sheet %69% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L21W20W00D11D20W10W01L20W01LA·VIB28/07A·KAU02/08H·PAN07/08A·BAN14/08H·FK 21/08A·JON27/08H·HEG06/09A·DŽI10/09H·BAN18/09A·FK 27/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.370.870.330.600.40
vs Stronger (8)0.750.620.330.671.000.60
vs Similar (22)0.730.271.000.250.400.30
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L11D12L11D01L12L01L01L00D01LA·MIL14/07H·KAU23/07A·SUD07/08H·ŠIA13/08H·BAN21/08H·DŽI27/08A·HEG02/09H·FK 07/09A·JON10/09A·ŠIA17/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.690.520.870.530.500.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.520.570.670.500.360.64
vs Weaker (6)1.330.331.670.671.000.00
Clean sheet %59% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L21W00D10W00D11D11D00D00DA·VIB28/07A·KAU02/08H·PAN07/08A·BAN14/08H·FK 21/08A·JON27/08H·HEG06/09A·DŽI10/09H·BAN18/09A·FK 27/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.600.730.670.600.53
vs Stronger (8)0.000.750.001.670.000.20
vs Similar (22)0.910.550.920.420.900.70
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners77.0%--------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
Panevėžys and Suduva Marijampole have a similar squad value (both €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
Panevėžys and Suduva Marijampole have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
Panevėžys and Suduva Marijampole have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
Panevėžys and Suduva Marijampole have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
PAN wins
0
Draws
2
SM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Panevėžys vs Suduva Marijampole · H/A from PAN
DateH/AGameScore
07/08/22ASuduva Marijampole Vs PAN4-1
21/05/22ASuduva Marijampole Vs PAN2-1
02/04/22HPAN Vs Suduva Marijampole2-1

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/09/22AŠiauliai Vs PAN1-0
10/09/22AJonava Vs PAN1-1
07/09/22HPAN Vs FK Trakai0-1
02/09/22AHegelmann Litauen Vs PAN1-1
27/08/22HPAN Vs Džiugas Telšiai3-2
21/08/22HPAN Vs Banga2-1
13/08/22HPAN Vs Šiauliai1-2
07/08/22ASuduva Marijampole Vs PAN4-1
23/07/22HPAN Vs Kauno Žalgiris2-1
14/07/22AMilsami Orhei Vs PAN2-0

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/09/22AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs SM1-0
18/09/22HSM Vs Banga2-0
10/09/22ADžiugas Telšiai Vs SM2-1
06/09/22HSM Vs Hegelmann Litauen2-1
27/08/22AJonava Vs SM0-2
21/08/22HSM Vs FK Trakai2-1
14/08/22ABanga Vs SM0-0
07/08/22HSM Vs Panevėžys4-1
02/08/22AKauno Žalgiris Vs SM2-2
28/07/22AViborg Vs SM1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLDL1.66
HomeWLWWL1.93
AwayLLDDL1.36
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%60%36%
AVG goals2.312.402.21
Over 1.5 %69%73%64%
Over 2.5 %48%53%43%
Over 3.5 %14%13%14%
Scored1.381.531.21
Conceded0.930.871.00
BTTS45%47%43%
Clean Sheet41%40%43%
Corners9.504.0015.00
Cards3.00-3.00
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWL1.60
HomeLWWWW2.00
AwayDDWLL1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %43%60%27%
AVG goals2.372.602.13
Over 1.5 %73%87%60%
Over 2.5 %47%47%47%
Over 3.5 %20%13%27%
Scored1.401.601.20
Conceded0.971.000.93
BTTS43%53%33%
Clean Sheet37%27%47%
Corners11.0011.0011.00
Cards4.004.00-

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3684
72%
2.3
8527+58
3.1
78%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2332.40.8
-
2Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3663
50%
1.8
5537+18
2.6
81%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.51.0
-
3PanevėžysPanevėžys3662
50%
1.7
5031+19
2.2
67%
47%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.40.9
-
4Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3661
44%
1.7
6232+30
2.6
75%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.70.9
-
5FK TrakaiFK Trakai3659
47%
1.6
5341+12
2.6
72%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3655
42%
1.5
4840+8
2.4
81%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.31.1
-
7ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3650
36%
1.4
3939+0
2.2
61%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.11.1
-
8BangaBanga3630
17%
0.8
3354-21
2.4
75%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.91.5
-
9Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3627
14%
0.8
3467-33
2.8
69%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.91.9
-
10JonavaJonava363
0%
0.1
12103-91
3.2
86%
64%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.32.9
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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