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Panevėžys vs Suduva Marijampole Result & Analysis

Date: 07/07/2025
Time: 16:00
Final 1-2
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Vs
40%
30%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Panevėžys win✗ Miss
39.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole win✓ Hit
30.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 – goals for & against
130-13130W30W30W11D30W12L11D20W03L24LA·TRI07/05H·HEG10/05H·FK 17/05A·BAN23/05A·GAR27/05A·ŠIA01/06A·DŽI13/06H·DAI19/06A·KAU24/06H·FK 29/06
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.831.271.381.152.181.35
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)1.451.591.671.561.311.62
vs Weaker (8)2.880.380.750.255.000.50
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W10W30W11D31W41W00D22D22D20WA·VIL07/05A·BAN11/05A·DAI16/05A·DŽI25/05A·TAU28/05H·FK 01/06H·KAU13/06H·FK 19/06A·ŠIA25/06A·HEG30/06
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.600.871.460.381.711.24
vs Stronger (5)1.201.401.001.001.331.67
vs Similar (24)1.620.751.550.271.691.15
vs Weaker (1)3.001.00--3.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.4%
Under 1.5
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.1%
Under 2.5
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.0%
Under 3.5
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.7%
No
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
1-0
10.2%
0-0
10.0%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
8.5%
2-0
7.6%
1-2 ✓
7.2%
0-2
5.5%
Panevėžys goals ↓
Suduva Marijampole goals →
01234
010.0%8.5%5.5%2.0%0.6%
110%14%7.2%2.7%0.8%
27.6%8.5%4.8%1.8%0.5%
33.3%3.8%2.1%0.8%0.2%
41.1%1.2%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Panevėžys goals (down), columns = Suduva Marijampole goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kauno Žalgiris
2.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.86
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.72
Suduva Marijampole
1.64
Šiauliai
1.44
Panevėžys
1.36
Džiugas Telšiai
1.28
Banga
1.17
FK Trakai
0.79
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Dainava
0.50
Panevėžys is 0.28 points worse than Suduva Marijampole in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 1.64).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Kauno Žalgiris
1.86
Šiauliai
1.64
Hegelmann Litauen
1.56
Panevėžys
1.56
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Suduva Marijampole
1.33
Banga
1.06
Džiugas Telšiai
1.03
FK Trakai
1.03
Dainava
0.75
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Panevėžys is 0.22 goals better than Suduva Marijampole in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.72
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
Banga
1.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
1.19
Džiugas Telšiai
1.25
Panevėžys
1.36
Šiauliai
1.47
FK Trakai
1.97
Dainava
2.11
Panevėžys is 0.36 goals worse than Suduva Marijampole in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-660W00D20W10W00D00D10W00D01L22DA·TRI07/05H·HEG10/05H·FK 17/05A·BAN23/05A·GAR27/05A·ŠIA01/06A·DŽI13/06H·DAI19/06A·KAU24/06H·FK 29/06
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.530.540.540.880.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.550.640.670.670.460.62
vs Weaker (8)1.250.250.250.252.250.25
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W10W10W20W30W00D11D00D10WA·VIL07/05A·BAN11/05A·DAI16/05A·DŽI25/05A·TAU28/05H·FK 01/06H·KAU13/06H·FK 19/06A·ŠIA25/06A·HEG30/06
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.300.860.070.690.50
vs Stronger (6)0.500.330.670.330.330.33
vs Similar (23)0.780.300.910.000.670.58
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %80% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
70-770W30W10W01L30W12L01L20W02L02LA·TRI07/05H·HEG10/05H·FK 17/05A·BAN23/05A·GAR27/05A·ŠIA01/06A·DŽI13/06H·DAI19/06A·KAU24/06H·FK 29/06
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.730.850.621.290.82
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.910.951.000.890.851.00
vs Weaker (8)1.620.120.500.002.750.25
Clean sheet %50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W00D20W01L11D11D00D11D22D10WA·VIL07/05A·BAN11/05A·DAI16/05A·DŽI25/05A·TAU28/05H·FK 01/06H·KAU13/06H·FK 19/06A·ŠIA25/06A·HEG30/06
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.570.570.361.000.75
vs Stronger (6)0.671.000.330.671.001.33
vs Similar (23)0.830.430.640.271.000.58
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.577.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.571.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
Panevėžys and Suduva Marijampole have a similar squad value (both €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
NK (1)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Panevėžys and Suduva Marijampole have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
Panevėžys and Suduva Marijampole have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
NK (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Panevėžys and Suduva Marijampole have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
PAN wins
2
Draws
1
SM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Panevėžys vs Suduva Marijampole · H/A from PAN
DateH/AGameScore
04/05/25ASuduva Marijampole Vs PAN0-0
16/03/25HPAN Vs Suduva Marijampole2-0
01/09/24HPAN Vs Suduva Marijampole0-0
26/06/24ASuduva Marijampole Vs PAN1-3
02/05/24HPAN Vs Suduva Marijampole1-0
13/03/24ASuduva Marijampole Vs PAN1-0
23/09/23HPAN Vs Suduva Marijampole2-1
16/09/23ASuduva Marijampole Vs PAN0-1

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/06/25HPAN Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius2-4
24/06/25AKauno Žalgiris Vs PAN3-0
19/06/25HPAN Vs Dainava2-0
13/06/25ADžiugas Telšiai Vs PAN1-1
01/06/25AŠiauliai Vs PAN2-1
27/05/25AGarliava Vs PAN0-3
23/05/25ABanga Vs PAN1-1
17/05/25HPAN Vs FK Trakai3-0
10/05/25HPAN Vs Hegelmann Litauen3-0
07/05/25ATrivartis Vilnius Vs PAN0-13

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/06/25AHegelmann Litauen Vs SM0-2
25/06/25AŠiauliai Vs SM2-2
19/06/25HSM Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius2-2
13/06/25HSM Vs Kauno Žalgiris0-0
01/06/25HSM Vs FK Trakai4-1
28/05/25ATauras Vs SM1-3
25/05/25ADžiugas Telšiai Vs SM1-1
16/05/25ADainava Vs SM0-3
11/05/25ABanga Vs SM0-1
07/05/25AVilnius FA Vs SM0-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWLL1.24
HomeLWWWL1.29
AwayDWLDL1.19
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%38%27%
AVG goals2.842.293.35
Over 1.5 %78%71%85%
Over 2.5 %58%46%69%
Over 3.5 %28%17%38%
Scored1.481.121.81
Conceded1.361.171.54
BTTS48%29%65%
Clean Sheet34%46%23%
Corners---
Cards4.003.005.00
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDDW1.44
HomeWDWDD1.58
AwayWDWDW1.31
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%38%35%
AVG goals2.261.752.73
Over 1.5 %60%46%73%
Over 2.5 %40%25%54%
Over 3.5 %26%21%31%
Scored1.241.081.38
Conceded1.020.671.35
BTTS44%38%50%
Clean Sheet38%50%27%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3675
61%
2.1
6726+41
2.6
69%
58%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.90.7
-
2Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3667
58%
1.9
5643+13
2.8
75%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.61.2
-
3FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3662
47%
1.7
5441+13
2.6
81%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2331.51.1
-
4Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3659
42%
1.6
4836+12
2.3
64%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.31.0
-
5ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3652
39%
1.4
5953+6
3.1
81%
69%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.61.5
-
6PanevėžysPanevėžys3649
39%
1.4
5649+7
2.9
81%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.61.4
-
7Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3646
36%
1.3
3745-8
2.3
64%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.01.2
-
8BangaBanga3642
31%
1.2
3836+2
2.1
58%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.11.0
-
9FK TrakaiFK Trakai3830
18%
0.8
3975-36
3.0
82%
58%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
10DainavaDainava3618
8%
0.5
2776-49
2.9
89%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.1
-
11Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda21
0%
0.5
12-1
1.5
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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