PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus Result & Analysis

PAOK’s recent five matches have been a mix of losses and draws, and they are coming off a 2-3 defeat to Brann, so the home side is looking for a turnaround. Olympiakos Piraeus, unbeaten in their last five, have shown a very low scoring form away, averaging only 0.5 goals per game against similar opposition, while conceding 1.25. The model favours an away win, with a 50% chance, a draw at 27% and a home win at 23%. The expected total goals is 2.7, with the most likely total being two goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 12.8% probability. Suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 91.9%, Over 19.5 fouls at 86.3%, Over 3.5 cards at 81.2%, Under 11.5 corners at 79.6%, Over 1.5 goals at 76.2%, Over 21.5 fouls at 74.7% and Under 3.5 goals at 71.5%. These selections reflect the high likelihood of a tightly contested match with plenty of fouls and cards.

The upset came early, as PAOK overturned the pre-match favourite, Olympiakos Piraeus, to win 2-1, ending the home side’s run of defeats. The model had tipped an away win with a 50% probability, but that call was wrong. Its other selections all hit: Over 2.5 cards at 91.9%, Over 19.5 fouls at 86.3%, Over 3.5 cards at 81.2%, Under 11.5 corners at 79.6%, Over 1.5 goals at 76.2%, Over 21.5 fouls at 74.7% and Under 3.5 goals at 71.5%. The most likely score was 1-1 at 12.8%, yet the final was a 2-1 home victory, leaving the model’s prediction for the match itself incorrect.