Paris FC, fresh from a 3-0 triumph over Nice, will host Lyon who are coming off a 1-1 draw with Le Havre. The model’s most confident outcome is a home win, with a 38% chance, while the draw sits at 26% and an away win at 35%. The expected goal tally is 3.0, yet the most probable total is two goals, a 23% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.2% chance, distinct from the total-goals forecast. Paris FC averages 1.42 goals for and 1.5 against against similar opposition at home, whereas Lyon concedes 1.67 and scores 1.33 on the road. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.9%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.4% with a 7% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.4% with an 8% edge), Under 6.5 (96.9% with a 2% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (94.2% with a 3% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (93.2% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (93.1% with a 1% edge), and Under 5.5 (92.1% with a 2% edge).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Paris FC win
38.3%
Avg Implied 35.8% · @ 2.64
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.75
Marathonbet
2.71
Betano
2.65
Dafabet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Draw
26.4%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.55
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.70
Pinnacle
3.67
Marathonbet
3.64
Betano
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Lyon win
35.3%
Avg Implied 37.5% · @ 2.53
Edge
-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.62
Unibet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.58
Dafabet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.52
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Paris FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.17
1.64
1.43
1.06
0.94
vs Stronger (5)
1.80
0.80
3.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (24)
1.17
1.29
1.42
1.50
0.92
1.08
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.23
1.81
1.31
1.43
1.14
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.69
1.56
1.90
1.50
1.33
1.67
vs Weaker (13)
1.54
0.85
1.67
1.00
1.43
0.71
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.7%
@ 1.21+4.3%
Under 1.5
18.3%
@ 4.15-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.23
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.19
Under
Bet365
4.33
Betano
4.20
10Bet
4.20
1xBet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.4%
@ 1.71+2.6%
Under 2.5
41.6%
@ 2.15-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.79
1xBet
1.75
Betano
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Under
1xBet
2.25
Betano
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
Marathonbet
2.18
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.0%
@ 2.71+1.3%
Under 3.5
64.0%
@ 1.44-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.95
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.70
10Bet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.68
Under
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.47
10Bet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Both teams to score
Yes
62.0%
@ 1.57+2.7%
No
38.0%
@ 2.28-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.61
William Hil
1.60
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
No
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.32
10Bet
2.30
William Hil
2.30
Marathonbet
2.29
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%@ 6.60+5.4%
2-1
8.6%@ 9.26+3.7%
1-2
8.2%@ 8.95+3.2%
2-2
6.4%@ 11.00+2.3%
1-0
6.4%@ 9.84+1.8%
0-1
6.0%@ 9.69+1.4%
0-0
5.9%@ 12.28+2.3%
2-0
5.8%@ 13.47+2.5%
Paris FC goals ↓
Lyon goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
6.0%
5.3%
2.6%
1.0%
1
6.4%
12%
8.2%
4.1%
1.5%
2
5.8%
8.6%
6.4%
3.1%
1.2%
3
3.0%
4.4%
3.3%
1.6%
0.6%
4
1.2%
1.7%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Paris FC goals (down), columns = Lyon goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Auxerre
1.00
Nice
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Paris FC is 0.47 points worse than Lyon in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.76).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Paris FC is 0.18 goals worse than Lyon in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Paris FC is 0.29 goals worse than Lyon in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.18).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Paris FC is 4.2 percentage points worse than Lyon in terms of average possession (50% vs 55%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Paris FC
For 4.2 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.0 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.6 · Against 8.7 · Total 17.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lyon
For 7.1 · Against 5.1 · Total 12.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.8 · Against 2.8 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 14.2 · Total 25.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Paris FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.3
9.5
3.8
4.3
3.4
22.2
22.5
21.9
vs Stronger (5)
7.8
9.0
7.0
2.6
1.5
3.3
15.6
14.0
16.7
vs Similar (35)
9.9
9.6
10.1
3.9
4.8
3.1
22.2
22.9
21.5
vs Weaker (10)
8.5
8.0
8.8
4.2
4.0
4.3
25.4
24.8
25.8
% over line
51%
43%
58%
52%
52%
52%
55%
65%
46%
% under line
49%
57%
42%
48%
48%
48%
45%
35%
54%
This opponent (Lyon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.2
9.5
4.6
4.0
5.2
25.1
25.2
25.0
vs Stronger (2)
14.0
10.0
18.0
7.5
9.0
6.0
18.0
18.0
18.0
vs Similar (24)
9.3
10.6
8.1
4.6
3.9
5.3
26.1
26.6
25.6
vs Weaker (24)
10.1
9.8
10.4
4.2
3.6
5.0
24.7
24.5
25.0
% over line
43%
48%
38%
62%
58%
67%
76%
80%
71%
% under line
57%
52%
62%
38%
42%
33%
24%
20%
29%
This opponent (Paris FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.5
Rennes
10.5
Lens
10.3
Auxerre
10.0
Lyon
9.9
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Lille
9.6
Monaco
9.6
Paris FC
9.4
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Mans
9.3
Toulouse
9.3
Angers
9.2
Marseille
9.1
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
8.9
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.8
Lyon
4.6
Marseille
4.5
Lens
4.5
Le Mans
4.4
Lille
4.4
Toulouse
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Rennes
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Le Havre
4.0
Nice
4.0
Lorient
4.0
Estac Troyes
3.9
Paris FC
3.9
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Le Mans
27.1
Estac Troyes
27.0
Le Havre
26.8
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.4
Lyon
25.1
Stade Brestois 29
25.0
Lens
24.8
Rennes
24.0
Lille
24.0
Monaco
23.5
Strasbourg
23.5
Nice
23.4
Marseille
23.4
Lorient
22.8
Angers
22.7
Paris FC
22.3
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
50.1%
@ 1.76-2.2%
Under 9.5
49.9%
@ 1.93+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.76
Under
Unibet
1.93
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.3%
Under 3.5
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
57.8%
Under 21.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Paris FC or Draw
61.7%
Avg Implied 62.3% · @ 1.52
Edge
-0.6%
38%
26%
35%
covers Paris FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
William Hil
1.53
Bet365
1.50
Paris FC or Lyon
73.2%
Avg Implied 73.6% · @ 1.29
Edge
-0.3%
38%
26%
35%
covers Paris FC + Lyon
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Draw or Lyon
65.0%
Avg Implied 64.1% · @ 1.48
Edge
+0.9%
38%
26%
35%
covers Draw + Lyon
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
10Bet
1.48
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Paris FC over/under 0.5
Over
76.3%
@ 1.24+1.5%
Under
23.7%
@ 3.68-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.28
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Under
Pinnacle
3.96
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.70
1xBet
3.70
Paris FC over/under 1.5
Over
42.2%
@ 2.18-0.7%
Under
57.8%
@ 1.64+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.25
Unibet
2.23
Pinnacle
2.22
1xBet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.20
Under
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.65
Paris FC over/under 2.5
Over
17.6%
@ 4.84-1.6%
Under
82.4%
@ 1.15+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.90
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.80
Under
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Paris FC over/under 3.5
Over
5.8%
@ 10.69-2.9%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.03+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.50
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Lyon over/under 0.5
Over
78.0%
@ 1.22+2.0%
Under
22.0%
@ 3.87-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Unibet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
1xBet
3.82
10Bet
3.80
Lyon over/under 1.5
Over
44.7%
@ 2.13+0.8%
Under
55.3%
@ 1.67-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.23
Pinnacle
2.16
Marathonbet
2.14
1xBet
2.14
10Bet
2.10
Under
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Lyon over/under 2.5
Over
19.5%
@ 4.61-0.7%
Under
80.5%
@ 1.17+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
5.00
Betfair
4.80
1xBet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Under
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Lyon over/under 3.5
Over
6.8%
@ 10.00-2.6%
Under
93.2%
@ 1.03+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
1xBet
10.00
Marathonbet
10.00
Unibet
9.50
Betfair
9.00
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Paris FC, so a minus line means Paris FC give that many goals of a start and Lyon receive them. At -1, Paris FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Paris FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Paris FC)
Paris FC -2
6.3%
@ 10.66-2.1%
Draw -2
10.6%
@ 6.73-2.6%
Lyon +2
83.2%
@ 1.13+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
Unibet
11.00
10Bet
10.00
Marathonbet
6.30
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.65
Away
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Handicap -1 (Paris FC)
Paris FC -1
16.8%
@ 4.95-1.2%
Draw -1
18.1%
@ 4.34-2.5%
Lyon +1
65.0%
@ 1.46+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.90
Marathonbet
4.85
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Away
Marathonbet
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.46
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.40
Handicap +1 (Paris FC)
Paris FC +1
61.7%
@ 1.50+1.9%
Draw +1
19.1%
@ 4.25-2.0%
Lyon -1
19.1%
@ 4.74+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.55
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Unibet
1.46
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.25
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Away
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Handicap +2 (Paris FC)
Paris FC +2
80.9%
@ 1.14+2.3%
Draw +2
11.7%
@ 6.99-1.2%
Lyon -2
7.5%
@ 10.40-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.13
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.95
10Bet
6.50
Away
Unibet
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
11.00
10Bet
10.00
Marathonbet
9.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Paris FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.40
0.71
0.64
0.31
0.19
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.40
1.50
0.50
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.42
0.58
0.67
0.33
0.17
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
0.62
0.62
0.93
0.36
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.69
0.70
0.90
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (13)
0.62
0.31
0.50
0.17
0.71
0.43
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.0%
@ 1.32+3.9%
Under 0.5
25.0%
@ 3.24-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
Unibet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Under
William Hil
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
1xBet
3.24
Marathonbet
3.24
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.9%
@ 2.50+1.4%
Under 1.5
61.1%
@ 1.50-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.60
Betfair
2.55
Betano
2.55
Marathonbet
2.52
1xBet
2.52
Under
William Hil
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.0%
@ 5.89+0.2%
Under 2.5
84.0%
@ 1.11-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.25
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
5.80
1xBet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Paris FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
58.7%
@ 1.97+11.5%
Under
41.3%
@ 1.76-11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.00
Unibet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.96
1xBet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Under
10Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.80
Marathonbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Paris FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
21.5%
@ 6.07+6.2%
Under
78.5%
@ 1.09-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.00
Unibet
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Paris FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
7.3%
@ 11.50-0.8%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.02+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Lyon over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.7%
@ 1.94-9.3%
Under
61.3%
@ 1.79+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.00
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.91
Under
10Bet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.83
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
Betano
1.78
Lyon over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.0%
@ 5.74-6.2%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.11+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.00
Unibet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.80
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.40
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Lyon over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
@ 11.50-6.6%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.02+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Paris FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.77
0.93
0.79
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
0.40
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.88
0.83
0.83
0.58
0.92
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.73
1.19
0.69
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.88
1.20
0.60
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (13)
0.92
0.54
1.17
0.83
0.71
0.29
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.6%
@ 1.18+1.8%
Under 0.5
19.4%
@ 4.42-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Under
Marathonbet
4.55
1xBet
4.55
Betano
4.50
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
50.2%
@ 1.88+0.5%
Under 1.5
49.8%
@ 1.86-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Unibet
1.92
Betano
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Under
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
William Hil
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.5%
@ 3.77-2.2%
Under 2.5
77.5%
@ 1.24+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.00
William Hil
3.90
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.75
1xBet
3.75
Under
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Paris FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
64.9%
@ 1.69+9.8%
Under
35.1%
@ 2.07-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.66
Betano
1.65
Under
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.09
Marathonbet
1.96
Paris FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
26.8%
@ 4.20+4.7%
Under
73.2%
@ 1.19-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.25
Marathonbet
4.25
Betano
3.95
Under
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Paris FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.9%
@ 9.00-1.5%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.04+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Lyon over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.3%
@ 1.62-8.9%
Under
51.7%
@ 2.17+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Under
Betano
2.20
1xBet
2.14
Lyon over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.2%
@ 4.06-8.6%
Under
85.8%
@ 1.20+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Betano
3.85
Under
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Lyon over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.7%
@ 9.00-7.6%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.04+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.6%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+7.6%
Under 6.5
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+2.5%
Home under 3.5 goals
94.2%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
-
+2.9%
Away under 3.5 goals
93.2%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
+2.6%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
92.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.8%
Under 5.5
92.0%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Marathonbet
1.02
Unibet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
+2.1%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.1%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.5%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.0%
1.11
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
+6.2%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.8%
1.20
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
-
+8.6%
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.0%
1.11
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-0.2%
Away +2 handicap
83.2%
1.13
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Betfair
1.10
+4.7%
Home under 2.5 goals
82.4%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
+1.6%
Under 4.5
82.3%
1.15
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
+1.2%
Over 1.5
81.7%
1.21
Unibet
1.23
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.19
+4.3%
Home +2 handicap
80.9%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.13
+2.3%
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.6%
1.18
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
+1.8%
Away under 2.5 goals
80.5%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
+0.7%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
78.5%
1.09
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
-6.2%
Over 2.5 cards
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.0%
1.22
Betano
1.24
Unibet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+2.0%
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.5%
1.24
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.22
+2.2%
Home over 0.5 goals
76.3%
1.24
Marathonbet
1.28
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
+1.5%
Under 5.5 cards
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.0%
1.32
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
Unibet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
+3.9%
Under 25.5 fouls
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
73.3%
1.35
Unibet
1.35
-
-
-
-
+5.1%
Home or Away
73.2%
1.29
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
-0.3%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
73.2%
1.19
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
-
-4.7%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Paris FC · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ilan Kebbal26%
Marshall Munetsi25%
Lohann Doucet20%
Willem Geubbels19%
Luca Koleosho17%
Alimami Gory16%
Ciro Immobile15%
Jonathan Ikoné15%
Nouha Dicko12%
Moses Simon10%
Rudy Matondo8%
Vincent Marchetti8%
Jean-Philippe Krasso8%
Samir Sophian Chergui7%
Pierre Lees Melou5%
Otávio4%
Adama Camara3%
Kevin Trapp0%
Maxime López0%
Hamari Traoré0%
Thibault De Smet0%
Julien López0%
Mathieu Cafaro0%
Timothée Kolodziejczak0%
Tuomas Ollila0%
Moustapha Mbow0%
Obed Nkambadio0%
Diego Coppola0%
Nhoa Sangui0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Maxime López41%
Lohann Doucet40%
Thibault De Smet32%
Otávio29%
Pierre Lees Melou27%
Adama Camara25%
Ilan Kebbal23%
Hamari Traoré22%
Rudy Matondo17%
Ciro Immobile15%
Timothée Kolodziejczak15%
Moustapha Mbow15%
Alimami Gory12%
Jonathan Ikoné12%
Kevin Trapp9%
Mathieu Cafaro8%
Diego Coppola7%
Samir Sophian Chergui7%
Luca Koleosho6%
Vincent Marchetti4%
Willem Geubbels0%
Moses Simon0%
Marshall Munetsi0%
Nouha Dicko0%
Julien López0%
Jean-Philippe Krasso0%
Tuomas Ollila0%
Obed Nkambadio0%
Nhoa Sangui0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ilan Kebbal16%
Ciro Immobile15%
Diego Coppola14%
Pierre Lees Melou14%
Nouha Dicko12%
Maxime López11%
Moses Simon10%
Jean-Philippe Krasso8%
Marshall Munetsi6%
Hamari Traoré6%
Luca Koleosho6%
Thibault De Smet5%
Alimami Gory4%
Vincent Marchetti4%
Jonathan Ikoné4%
Willem Geubbels4%
Moustapha Mbow3%
Kevin Trapp0%
Julien López0%
Samir Sophian Chergui0%
Mathieu Cafaro0%
Timothée Kolodziejczak0%
Tuomas Ollila0%
Adama Camara0%
Obed Nkambadio0%
Otávio0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Nhoa Sangui0%
Rudy Matondo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Moses Simon14%
Ilan Kebbal13%
Marshall Munetsi12%
Jonathan Ikoné12%
Willem Geubbels11%
Mathieu Cafaro8%
Rudy Matondo8%
Ciro Immobile8%
Jean-Philippe Krasso8%
Pierre Lees Melou5%
Alimami Gory4%
Vincent Marchetti4%
Kevin Trapp0%
Maxime López0%
Hamari Traoré0%
Thibault De Smet0%
Nouha Dicko0%
Julien López0%
Samir Sophian Chergui0%
Timothée Kolodziejczak0%
Tuomas Ollila0%
Adama Camara0%
Moustapha Mbow0%
Obed Nkambadio0%
Otávio0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Diego Coppola0%
Luca Koleosho0%
Nhoa Sangui0%
Lyon
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Loïs Openda40%
Noah Nartey33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Ernest Nuamah20%
Tyler Morton17%
Malick Fofana17%
Clinton Mata0%
Corentin Tolisso0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Noah Nartey33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Loïs Openda20%
Abner Vinícius20%
Clinton Mata0%
Corentin Tolisso0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Tyler Morton0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Malick Fofana0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Corentin Tolisso33%
Pavel Šulc33%
Zachary Athekame33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Clinton Mata0%
Loïs Openda0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Tyler Morton0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Malick Fofana0%
Noah Nartey0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Loïs Openda40%
Corentin Tolisso33%
Malick Fofana33%
Kaïl Boudache20%
Tyler Morton17%
Clinton Mata0%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Noah Nartey0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Paris FC's squad is €117m less valuable than Lyon's (€176m vs €293m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Paris FC's attack is €62m less valuable than Lyon's (€59m vs €122m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Paris FC's midfield is €28m less valuable than Lyon's (€54m vs €82m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Paris FC's defence is €27m less valuable than Lyon's (€62m vs €89m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lille
Monaco
Rennes
Estac Troyes
Lens
Marseille
Angers
Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29
Paris Saint Germain
Le Mans
Le Havre
Lorient
Toulouse
Nice
Auxerre