Pythia gives Paris FC a 16% win probability against Paris Saint Germain in the France: Ligue 1 on 2026-05-17, with 20% for the draw and 63% for Paris Saint Germain. The model estimates around 3.5 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 1-2 the most likely scoreline (9.7%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 25.5 fouls (89%), Under 5.5 cards (88%), Over 1.5 (87%), Under 23.5 fouls (79%).
Results analysis
Paris FC finished 2-1 against Paris Saint Germain (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 16% home win, 20% draw and 63% away win. Picks that landed: Under 25.5 fouls (89%), Under 5.5 cards (88%), Over 1.5 (87%), Under 23.5 fouls (79%), Under 4.5 cards (76%), Under 11.5 corners (71%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Paris FC win✓ Hit
16.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Paris Saint Germain win✗ Miss
63.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Paris FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
0.97
2.06
1.19
1.50
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.78
1.67
1.86
2.00
1.50
0.50
vs Weaker (21)
1.81
0.67
2.22
0.56
1.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris Saint Germain) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paris Saint Germain
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.37
0.97
2.75
1.12
1.93
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
2.20
1.40
3.50
2.00
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (25)
2.40
0.88
2.64
1.00
2.09
0.73
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.7%
Under 1.5
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.1%
Under 2.5
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.3%
Under 3.5
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.9%
No
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.7%
1-1
9.1%
0-2
8.5%
1-3
7.5%
0-3
6.6%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
5.5%
2-1 ✓
4.7%
Paris FC goals ↓
Paris Saint Germain goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.0%
6.5%
8.5%
6.6%
3.8%
1
2.7%
9.1%
9.7%
7.5%
4.3%
2
2.0%
4.7%
5.5%
4.2%
2.5%
3
0.8%
1.8%
2.1%
1.6%
0.9%
4
0.2%
0.5%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Paris FC goals (down), columns = Paris Saint Germain goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Rodez
2.00
Lens
1.94
Paris FC
1.76
Lyon
1.75
Rennes
1.72
Lille
1.72
Marseille
1.72
Monaco
1.67
Strasbourg
1.50
Lorient
1.31
Toulouse
1.26
Stade Brestois 29
1.08
Angers
1.00
Le Havre
0.97
Nice
0.95
Auxerre
0.94
Saint Etienne
0.67
Nantes
0.66
Metz
0.47
RED Star FC 93
0.00
Paris FC is 0.48 points worse than Paris Saint Germain in terms of average points per game (1.76 vs 2.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
RED Star FC 93
2.00
Lens
1.83
Marseille
1.78
Monaco
1.78
Paris FC
1.77
Rennes
1.72
Strasbourg
1.72
Lyon
1.58
Rodez
1.50
Lille
1.47
Toulouse
1.46
Lorient
1.42
Stade Brestois 29
1.19
Nice
1.08
Auxerre
0.94
Metz
0.94
Le Havre
0.89
Nantes
0.83
Angers
0.81
Saint Etienne
0.33
Paris FC is 0.41 goals worse than Paris Saint Germain in terms of goals scored per game (1.77 vs 2.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Rodez
1.00
Lens
1.08
Lille
1.14
Paris FC
1.17
Lyon
1.22
Auxerre
1.31
Saint Etienne
1.33
Le Havre
1.33
Marseille
1.39
Strasbourg
1.44
Angers
1.44
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.53
Rennes
1.56
Toulouse
1.57
Nantes
1.60
Stade Brestois 29
1.64
Nice
1.74
Metz
2.28
RED Star FC 93
3.00
Paris FC is 0.32 goals worse than Paris Saint Germain in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 0.85).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
RED Star FC 93
63%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Saint Etienne
52%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Metz
49%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Nantes
42%
Angers
42%
Rodez
38%
Paris FC is 18.4 percentage points worse than Paris Saint Germain in terms of average possession (50% vs 69%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Paris FC
For 7.3 · Against 4.6 · Total 11.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 0.9 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.2 · Against 9.3 · Total 17.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Paris Saint Germain
For 6.7 · Against 4.1 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.3 · Against 9.5 · Total 17.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Paris FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.3
9.5
3.4
3.8
3.0
19.8
20.3
19.2
vs Stronger (1)
8.0
-
8.0
1.0
-
1.0
11.0
-
11.0
vs Similar (16)
9.2
9.3
9.2
4.3
4.5
4.0
20.2
21.2
18.7
vs Weaker (33)
10.4
11.0
9.8
3.0
3.3
2.7
19.9
19.8
19.9
% over line
54%
62%
46%
38%
46%
29%
38%
42%
33%
% under line
46%
38%
54%
62%
54%
71%
62%
58%
67%
This opponent (Paris Saint Germain) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paris Saint Germain
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.4
9.4
2.9
2.7
3.0
19.1
19.2
18.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
9.4
7.8
11.0
4.0
3.8
4.2
20.9
19.5
22.2
vs Weaker (42)
9.4
9.7
9.1
2.6
2.5
2.8
18.7
19.1
18.2
% over line
46%
54%
38%
30%
31%
29%
28%
23%
33%
% under line
54%
46%
62%
70%
69%
71%
72%
77%
67%
This opponent (Paris FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.6
Rennes
10.2
Rodez
10.0
Paris FC
9.9
Stade Brestois 29
9.9
Auxerre
9.8
Lyon
9.8
Lille
9.6
Nantes
9.6
Lens
9.6
Saint Etienne
9.5
Paris Saint Germain
9.4
Metz
9.4
Monaco
9.3
Toulouse
9.2
Le Havre
9.1
Strasbourg
9.1
Lorient
8.9
Angers
8.9
Marseille
8.7
RED Star FC 93
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lyon
5.1
Auxerre
4.6
Lens
4.5
Marseille
4.5
Nantes
4.4
Rennes
4.2
Monaco
4.2
Strasbourg
4.2
Lille
4.2
Rodez
4.2
Toulouse
4.2
Nice
4.1
Le Havre
4.0
Saint Etienne
3.9
Lorient
3.8
RED Star FC 93
3.8
Metz
3.7
Stade Brestois 29
3.6
Paris FC
3.3
Angers
3.2
Paris Saint Germain
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Le Havre
26.5
RED Star FC 93
26.5
Saint Etienne
26.2
Nantes
26.1
Rodez
25.8
Auxerre
25.7
Lyon
25.6
Lens
24.8
Stade Brestois 29
24.5
Toulouse
24.5
Monaco
24.1
Strasbourg
24.0
Rennes
23.8
Nice
23.8
Marseille
23.7
Lille
23.7
Lorient
22.9
Metz
22.9
Angers
22.0
Paris FC
19.6
Paris Saint Germain
19.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
52.5%
Under 9.5
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.7%
Under 3.5
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
35.4%
Under 21.5
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Paris FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.43
1.06
0.62
0.57
0.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.89
0.71
1.14
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (21)
0.90
0.24
1.33
0.22
0.58
0.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris Saint Germain) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paris Saint Germain
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.50
1.25
0.62
0.93
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.40
2.00
1.00
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.12
0.52
1.14
0.57
1.09
0.45
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Paris FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paris FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paris FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paris Saint Germain over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paris Saint Germain over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paris Saint Germain over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 11. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (29)
€1377m
MON (35)
€447m
MAR (31)
€406m
STR (31)
€383m
LYO (32)
€294m
LIL (30)
€273m
LEN (31)
€260m
NIC (35)
€198m
TOU (24)
€182m
PF (62)
€159m
ANG (28)
€135m
LOR (30)
€128m
NAN (34)
€118m
AUX (29)
€92m
SB2 (27)
€91m
SE (29)
€82m
MET (31)
€80m
LH (30)
€75m
ROD (27)
€22m
Paris FC's squad is €1218m less valuable than Paris Saint Germain's (€159m vs €1377m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (12)
€540m
MON (10)
€202m
MAR (12)
€200m
STR (10)
€142m
LYO (12)
€138m
LIL (12)
€130m
ANG (10)
€86m
NIC (13)
€85m
LEN (10)
€52m
NAN (11)
€50m
LOR (9)
€46m
SE (9)
€46m
PF (24)
€45m
MET (11)
€37m
AUX (9)
€32m
TOU (6)
€32m
SB2 (9)
€29m
LH (8)
€16m
ROD (7)
€7m
Paris FC's attack is €495m less valuable than Paris Saint Germain's (€45m vs €540m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
STR (9)
€109m
MON (8)
€109m
MAR (8)
€107m
LYO (6)
€77m
LEN (7)
€76m
LIL (5)
€76m
PF (14)
€50m
TOU (7)
€41m
NIC (8)
€40m
LOR (7)
€33m
AUX (7)
€30m
LH (6)
€25m
NAN (7)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€22m
MET (6)
€21m
ANG (5)
€14m
SE (7)
€11m
ROD (10)
€7m
Paris FC's midfield is €380m less valuable than Paris Saint Germain's (€50m vs €430m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (12)
€407m
MON (17)
€137m
STR (12)
€132m
LEN (14)
€132m
TOU (11)
€109m
MAR (11)
€99m
LYO (14)
€79m
NIC (14)
€73m
LIL (13)
€68m
PF (24)
€63m
LOR (14)
€48m
NAN (16)
€45m
SB2 (12)
€39m
ANG (13)
€35m
LH (16)
€34m
AUX (13)
€31m
SE (13)
€26m
MET (14)
€22m
ROD (10)
€9m
Paris FC's defence is €344m less valuable than Paris Saint Germain's (€63m vs €407m).
France: Ligue 1 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lens
Lyon
Marseille
Lille
Rennes
Monaco
Strasbourg
Lorient
Toulouse
Stade Brestois 29
Angers
Nice
Le Havre
Auxerre
Nantes
Metz
Rodez
Saint Etienne
RED Star FC 93