Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco Result & Analysis

Paris Saint Germain are favoured to win, with a 58% chance of triumph, 24% for a draw and 18% for a Monaco victory. The model expects an average of three goals, though the most likely total is two, with a 23% probability. The single scoreline most likely to occur is 1-1, carrying an 11.1% chance. Paris, playing at home against a weaker side, normally scores 2.64 goals and concedes just 0.57, while Monaco, away against a stronger opponent, averages only one goal scored and three conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 88.8%, Under 5.5 cards at 82.6%, Over 1.5 at 81.0%, Over 21.5 fouls at 78.6%, Over 2.5 cards at 72.0% and Under 11.5 corners at 70.3%. All figures are presented as percentages and every pick is listed with its probability.

The pre-match favourite, Paris Saint Germain, failed to deliver a win, as the match finished 3-3, a draw that surprised the model’s 58% home-win prediction. The model’s call was wrong. The model’s selection of Over 19.5 fouls, at 88.8%, missed, while Under 5.5 cards, at 82.6%, hit. Over 1.5 goals, at 81.0%, also hit, whereas Over 21.5 fouls, at 78.6%, missed. Over 2.5 cards, at 72.0%, hit, and Under 11.5 corners, at 70.3%, missed. Paris Saint Germain’s recent form, a draw in their last match, and Monaco’s three-game winning streak set the stage for the unexpected stalemate.