Paris Saint Germain are the clear favourite to win at home, a verdict the model reaches by weighting their 2.5 goals per match and only 1.08 conceded against weaker opponents, against Monaco’s 3.0 goals conceded at away venues. The prediction favours a 2-1 scoreline, the most likely outcome with a 9.3% chance, and the model estimates an average of 3.7 total goals, with a 21% probability of exactly three goals. The home win probability sits at 66%, the draw at 19%, and the away win at 15%. Monaco’s recent four-game winning streak away from home is tempered by the stronger opposition they face here, while PSG’s last match ended in a 2-2 draw against Lille. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.3% (edge 6%), Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.7% (edge 6%), Away under 3.5 goals at 97.4% (edge 2%), Under 7.5 at 97.3% (edge 2%), Home +2 handicap at 94.3% (edge 1%), Under 6.5 at 93.4% (edge 2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals at 93.1% (edge 6%), and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 92.6% (edge 2%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Paris Saint Germain win
65.8%
Avg Implied 70.1% · @ 1.35
Edge
-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.38
10Bet
1.37
SBO
1.36
Unibet
1.36
Draw
19.1%
Avg Implied 17.5% · @ 5.42
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
6.00
1xBet
5.89
Marathonbet
5.75
Pinnacle
5.63
Betano
5.60
Monaco win
15.1%
Avg Implied 12.4% · @ 7.66
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
8.90
Marathonbet
8.50
Betfair
8.50
Betano
8.50
Pinnacle
8.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Paris Saint Germain
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
1.10
2.53
1.20
1.93
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
2.00
1.33
2.67
1.67
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (24)
2.29
1.04
2.50
1.08
2.08
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Monaco) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monaco
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.57
1.92
1.15
1.76
1.88
vs Stronger (4)
2.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (12)
1.58
1.42
1.50
0.83
1.67
2.00
vs Weaker (14)
2.00
1.29
2.33
1.17
1.75
1.38
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris Saint Germain) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.5%
@ 1.10+3.8%
Under 1.5
11.5%
@ 6.12-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.10
Under
BetVictor
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.40
Marathonbet
6.15
1xBet
6.05
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
70.3%
@ 1.41+3.4%
Under 2.5
29.7%
@ 2.85-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.45
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Under
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.95
Unibet
2.90
Betano
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
49.1%
@ 2.06+3.0%
Under 3.5
50.9%
@ 1.77-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.14
Superbet
2.12
1xBet
2.11
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Under
1xBet
1.84
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.80
Both teams to score
Yes
63.3%
@ 1.64+6.5%
No
36.7%
@ 2.16-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.67
BetVictor
1.65
1xBet
1.65
William Hil
1.65
Betano
1.65
No
Unibet
2.23
Superbet
2.22
Betfair
2.20
William Hil
2.20
Betano
2.15
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.4%@ 7.87+3.6%
1-1
8.3%@ 9.92+3.7%
2-0
8.2%@ 7.96+2.5%
3-1
7.8%@ 9.44+2.9%
3-0
6.8%@ 9.51+2.0%
1-0
5.8%@ 9.49+1.0%
2-2
5.4%@ 15.09+2.4%
4-1
4.8%@ 14.36+1.7%
Paris Saint Germain goals ↓
Monaco goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
2.3%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
1
5.8%
8.3%
4.3%
1.7%
0.5%
2
8.2%
9.4%
5.4%
2.1%
0.6%
3
6.8%
7.8%
4.5%
1.7%
0.5%
4
4.2%
4.8%
2.8%
1.1%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Paris Saint Germain goals (down), columns = Monaco goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Auxerre
1.00
Nice
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Paris Saint Germain is 0.65 points better than Monaco in terms of average points per game (2.24 vs 1.59).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Paris Saint Germain is 0.41 goals better than Monaco in terms of goals scored per game (2.18 vs 1.76).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Paris Saint Germain is 0.74 goals better than Monaco in terms of goals conceded per game (0.85 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Paris Saint Germain is 15.0 percentage points better than Monaco in terms of average possession (69% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Paris Saint Germain
For 7.1 · Against 2.7 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.7 · Against 10.1 · Total 17.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Monaco
For 6.1 · Against 4.1 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 10.3 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Paris Saint Germain
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.6
9.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
19.2
19.9
18.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
9.9
8.8
11.0
4.1
4.0
4.2
21.9
21.5
22.2
vs Weaker (42)
9.2
9.8
8.6
2.8
2.8
2.8
18.6
19.6
17.8
% over line
44%
54%
35%
34%
38%
31%
30%
29%
31%
% under line
56%
46%
65%
66%
62%
69%
70%
71%
69%
This opponent (Monaco) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monaco
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
8.9
10.1
4.3
4.0
4.6
23.5
23.6
23.5
vs Stronger (6)
10.8
9.0
12.7
4.5
4.7
4.3
19.7
20.0
19.3
vs Similar (21)
9.3
9.1
9.5
3.8
3.8
3.8
24.1
25.2
22.9
vs Weaker (23)
9.5
8.7
10.0
4.7
3.9
5.3
24.0
22.9
24.8
% over line
50%
35%
63%
66%
61%
70%
64%
70%
59%
% under line
50%
65%
37%
34%
39%
30%
36%
30%
41%
This opponent (Paris Saint Germain) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.5
Rennes
10.5
Lens
10.3
Auxerre
10.0
Lyon
9.9
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Lille
9.6
Monaco
9.6
Paris FC
9.4
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Mans
9.3
Toulouse
9.3
Angers
9.2
Marseille
9.1
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
8.9
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.8
Lyon
4.6
Marseille
4.5
Lens
4.5
Le Mans
4.4
Lille
4.4
Toulouse
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Rennes
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Le Havre
4.0
Nice
4.0
Lorient
4.0
Estac Troyes
3.9
Paris FC
3.9
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Le Mans
27.1
Estac Troyes
27.0
Le Havre
26.8
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.4
Lyon
25.1
Stade Brestois 29
25.0
Lens
24.8
Rennes
24.0
Lille
24.0
Monaco
23.5
Strasbourg
23.5
Nice
23.4
Marseille
23.4
Lorient
22.8
Angers
22.7
Paris FC
22.3
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
54.6%
@ 1.83+3.4%
Under 9.5
45.4%
@ 1.92-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathonbet
1.89
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Superbet
1.82
Under
Unibet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.95
Superbet
1.92
10Bet
1.91
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
50.0%
@ 1.83-0.8%
Under 3.5
50.0%
@ 1.89+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.94
Unibet
1.87
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Under
Superbet
2.07
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
52.7%
@ 1.82+2.2%
Under 21.5
47.3%
@ 1.86-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.78
Under
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.85
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Paris Saint Germain or Draw
84.5%
Avg Implied 87.0% · @ 1.09
Edge
-2.5%
66%
19%
15%
covers Paris Saint Germain + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
Paris Saint Germain or Monaco
80.0%
Avg Implied 82.9% · @ 1.14
Edge
-3.0%
66%
19%
15%
covers Paris Saint Germain + Monaco
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Betano
1.16
Draw or Monaco
35.5%
Avg Implied 30.0% · @ 3.15
Edge
+5.5%
66%
19%
15%
covers Draw + Monaco
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.42
Marathonbet
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
Betano
3.25
Bet365
3.25
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Paris Saint Germain over/under 0.5
Over
90.6%
@ 1.04+0.9%
Under
9.4%
@ 9.03-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.06
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.02
Under
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Unibet
8.50
Superbet
8.10
Paris Saint Germain over/under 1.5
Over
68.4%
@ 1.32-2.6%
Under
31.6%
@ 3.23+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Under
Pinnacle
3.50
Marathonbet
3.36
1xBet
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Paris Saint Germain over/under 2.5
Over
42.1%
@ 2.01-4.5%
Under
57.9%
@ 1.75+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.12
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.02
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.81
Betano
1.78
BetVictor
1.75
Paris Saint Germain over/under 3.5
Over
21.4%
@ 3.63-4.3%
Under
78.6%
@ 1.25+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.85
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Pinnacle
3.69
Under
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
BetVictor
1.25
Monaco over/under 0.5
Over
66.9%
@ 1.52+5.6%
Under
33.1%
@ 2.41-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.56
BetVictor
1.55
1xBet
1.54
10Bet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Under
Superbet
2.52
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.48
Unibet
2.45
Betano
2.40
Monaco over/under 1.5
Over
30.3%
@ 3.60+4.4%
Under
69.7%
@ 1.26-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.82
Betfair
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
Pinnacle
3.77
Marathonbet
3.74
Under
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
Monaco over/under 2.5
Over
10.1%
@ 9.79+0.5%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.03-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
12.00
Marathonbet
11.50
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.50
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.02
Monaco over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
@ 22.00-1.8%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
24.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Paris Saint Germain, so a minus line means Paris Saint Germain give that many goals of a start and Monaco receive them. At -1, Paris Saint Germain must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Paris Saint Germain win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Paris Saint Germain)
Paris Saint Germain -2
23.9%
@ 3.19-4.6%
Draw -2
19.2%
@ 4.21-2.3%
Monaco +2
56.9%
@ 1.82+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
3.45
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Unibet
3.05
Draw
Marathonbet
4.40
Superbet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Unibet
4.00
Away
Marathonbet
1.91
Bet365
1.83
Betfair
1.83
Unibet
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Handicap -1 (Paris Saint Germain)
Paris Saint Germain -1
43.1%
@ 1.92-4.1%
Draw -1
21.4%
@ 3.86-2.1%
Monaco +1
35.5%
@ 3.09+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
2.05
10Bet
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Unibet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
10Bet
3.75
Unibet
3.75
Away
Marathonbet
3.40
Betfair
3.25
Unibet
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Handicap +1 (Paris Saint Germain)
Paris Saint Germain +1
84.5%
@ 1.08+1.7%
Draw +1
9.6%
@ 8.14-1.5%
Monaco -1
5.9%
@ 14.59-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
4.70
Away
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
19.00
10Bet
15.00
Unibet
13.00
Marathonbet
6.95
Handicap +2 (Paris Saint Germain)
Paris Saint Germain +2
94.1%
@ 1.01-0.0%
Draw +2
4.2%
@ 22.00-0.1%
Monaco -2
1.7%
@ 61.00+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Draw
Betfair
23.00
Bet365
21.00
Away
Betfair
71.00
Bet365
51.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Paris Saint Germain
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
1.13
0.73
0.73
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.50
1.33
1.00
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (24)
0.96
0.62
1.08
0.67
0.83
0.58
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Monaco) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monaco
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
0.85
0.46
0.71
0.59
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.42
0.50
0.17
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.88
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris Saint Germain) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.2%
@ 1.21-0.0%
Under 0.5
22.8%
@ 4.10+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
William Hil
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.0%
@ 2.05-1.0%
Under 1.5
55.0%
@ 1.74+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.14
1xBet
2.12
Betano
2.12
Marathonbet
2.09
Superbet
2.07
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
William Hil
1.75
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.3%
@ 4.37-4.1%
Under 2.5
82.7%
@ 1.19+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.55
BetVictor
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
Superbet
4.40
Under
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
William Hil
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Paris Saint Germain over/under 0.5 HT
Over
62.6%
@ 1.40-3.9%
Under
37.4%
@ 2.79+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Unibet
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
2.97
10Bet
2.85
1xBet
2.80
Unibet
2.75
Superbet
2.67
Paris Saint Germain over/under 1.5 HT
Over
23.2%
@ 2.90-8.8%
Under
76.8%
@ 1.37+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.97
Unibet
2.95
Superbet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.93
Betano
2.92
Under
Pinnacle
1.40
1xBet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.35
Paris Saint Germain over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.6%
@ 7.00-6.6%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.06+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
7.20
1xBet
7.10
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Unibet
1.04
Monaco over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.6%
@ 2.61+1.9%
Under
62.4%
@ 1.45-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.76
Betano
2.67
Marathonbet
2.65
1xBet
2.65
Unibet
2.60
Under
10Bet
1.50
Superbet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.44
Monaco over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.6%
@ 9.63-2.1%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.03+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.75
1xBet
9.60
Unibet
9.50
Superbet
8.80
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
Monaco over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.6%
@ 25.50-3.2%
Under
99.4%
@ 1.01+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
36.00
Betano
15.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Paris Saint Germain
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.50
1.40
0.47
1.20
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.17
0.83
1.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.33
0.42
1.42
0.42
1.25
0.42
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Monaco) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monaco
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.03
1.08
0.69
1.06
1.29
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.33
2.33
vs Similar (12)
1.08
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.17
1.33
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.79
1.33
0.67
0.88
0.88
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris Saint Germain) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.8%
@ 1.12+0.2%
Under 0.5
16.2%
@ 5.74-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Under
1xBet
6.40
Marathonbet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.80
Unibet
5.75
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
54.8%
@ 1.63-2.8%
Under 1.5
45.2%
@ 2.21+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.70
10Bet
1.68
Superbet
1.68
1xBet
1.63
Bet365
1.62
Under
Marathonbet
2.30
Betano
2.30
Unibet
2.28
1xBet
2.27
Superbet
2.20
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
25.9%
@ 2.95-6.0%
Under 2.5
74.1%
@ 1.38+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.20
Superbet
3.10
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
3.00
1xBet
2.93
Under
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.40
Superbet
1.38
Unibet
1.38
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Paris Saint Germain over/under 0.5 2H
Over
72.3%
@ 1.26-1.5%
Under
27.7%
@ 3.55+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Under
1xBet
3.70
Betano
3.65
Superbet
3.30
Paris Saint Germain over/under 1.5 2H
Over
38.0%
@ 2.22-3.8%
Under
62.0%
@ 1.60+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.35
10Bet
2.30
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.16
Betano
2.15
Under
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.62
10Bet
1.55
Superbet
1.53
Paris Saint Germain over/under 2.5 2H
Over
12.4%
@ 4.88-6.6%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.15+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.20
1xBet
4.70
Betano
4.35
Under
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Monaco over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.4%
@ 2.16+1.4%
Under
55.6%
@ 1.63-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.20
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.10
Under
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.65
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.59
Monaco over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.1%
@ 7.08-0.9%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.06+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.10
1xBet
7.50
Superbet
6.40
Betano
6.30
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Monaco over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.1%
@ 17.00-3.5%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.2%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.5%
Under 7.5
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.5%
Away under 3.5 goals
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+1.8%
Home +2 handicap
94.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
-0.0%
Under 6.5
93.7%
1.04
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Unibet
1.02
+2.3%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.4%
1.06
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Unibet
1.04
+6.6%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.4%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
-
+2.1%
Home over 0.5 goals
90.6%
1.04
Superbet
1.06
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.02
+0.9%
Away under 2.5 goals
89.9%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.02
-0.5%
Over 1.5
88.5%
1.10
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.10
+3.8%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.9%
1.06
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
-
+0.9%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
87.6%
1.15
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
-
+6.6%
Under 5.5
86.1%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
+1.7%
Home or Draw
84.5%
1.09
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
-2.5%
Home +1 handicap
84.5%
1.08
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
+1.7%
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.8%
1.12
William Hil
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
+0.2%
Under 5.5 cards
83.4%
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Betano
1.22
-
-
-
+8.4%
Under 2.5 HT goals
82.7%
1.19
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
William Hil
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+4.1%
Home or Away
80.0%
1.14
1xBet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Betano
1.16
-3.0%
Home under 3.5 goals
78.6%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
BetVictor
1.25
+4.3%
Under 25.5 fouls
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
77.2%
1.21
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-0.0%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
76.8%
1.37
Pinnacle
1.40
1xBet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.35
+8.8%
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.1%
1.38
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.40
Superbet
1.38
Unibet
1.38
+6.0%
Under 4.5
73.1%
1.31
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
+1.3%
Home over 0.5 2H goals
72.3%
1.26
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-1.5%
Over 2.5 cards
71.0%
1.34
Unibet
1.38
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.34
Superbet
1.26
-
+2.0%
Over 2.5
70.3%
1.41
Superbet
1.45
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.41
Betfair
1.40
+3.4%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Paris Saint Germain · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ousmane Dembélé35%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia31%
Désiré Doué29%
Bradley Barcola26%
Gonçalo Ramos21%
Nuno Mendes16%
Senny Mayulu15%
João Neves14%
Ibrahim Mbaye11%
Vitinha11%
Kang-in Lee8%
Lucas Beraldo8%
Dro Fernández8%
Quentin Ndjantou7%
Marquinhos7%
Achraf Hakimi6%
Fabián Ruiz6%
Warren Zaïre-Emery6%
Willian Pacho5%
Ilya Zabarnyi3%
Lucas Hernández0%
Matvey Safonov0%
Lucas Chevalier0%
Renato Marin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ilya Zabarnyi19%
Achraf Hakimi16%
Nuno Mendes13%
Lucas Hernández11%
Fabián Ruiz10%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia9%
Kang-in Lee8%
Lucas Beraldo8%
Quentin Ndjantou7%
Gonçalo Ramos7%
Marquinhos7%
Bradley Barcola7%
Warren Zaïre-Emery6%
Senny Mayulu5%
Matvey Safonov4%
João Neves3%
Désiré Doué3%
Vitinha2%
Ousmane Dembélé0%
Willian Pacho0%
Lucas Chevalier0%
Renato Marin0%
Ibrahim Mbaye0%
Dro Fernández0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ousmane Dembélé27%
Achraf Hakimi26%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia22%
Nuno Mendes18%
Désiré Doué18%
Fabián Ruiz16%
Quentin Ndjantou14%
Vitinha13%
João Neves11%
Bradley Barcola11%
Kang-in Lee11%
Senny Mayulu10%
Warren Zaïre-Emery10%
Lucas Hernández8%
Lucas Beraldo4%
Ibrahim Mbaye4%
Willian Pacho2%
Gonçalo Ramos2%
Marquinhos0%
Matvey Safonov0%
Ilya Zabarnyi0%
Lucas Chevalier0%
Renato Marin0%
Dro Fernández0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ousmane Dembélé35%
Désiré Doué26%
Gonçalo Ramos26%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia24%
Bradley Barcola20%
Senny Mayulu15%
Vitinha15%
Nuno Mendes11%
Fabián Ruiz10%
Kang-in Lee8%
Ibrahim Mbaye7%
Achraf Hakimi6%
João Neves6%
Lucas Beraldo4%
Warren Zaïre-Emery2%
Lucas Hernández0%
Marquinhos0%
Matvey Safonov0%
Willian Pacho0%
Ilya Zabarnyi0%
Lucas Chevalier0%
Renato Marin0%
Quentin Ndjantou0%
Dro Fernández0%
Monaco
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paris Brunner75%
Mika Biereth50%
Aleksandr Golovin33%
Mamadou Coulibaly33%
Eric Dier25%
Lamine Camara25%
Lukáš Hrádecký0%
Denis Zakaria0%
Vanderson0%
Nazinho0%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Mathys Detourbet0%
Anis Soubeir0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aleksandr Golovin33%
Mathys Detourbet33%
Lukáš Hrádecký25%
Denis Zakaria25%
Vanderson25%
Nazinho25%
Lamine Camara25%
Anis Soubeir25%
Eric Dier0%
Mika Biereth0%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo0%
Paris Brunner0%
Mamadou Coulibaly0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nazinho50%
Aleksandr Golovin33%
Mamadou Coulibaly33%
Mathys Detourbet33%
Eric Dier25%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo25%
Lukáš Hrádecký0%
Denis Zakaria0%
Mika Biereth0%
Vanderson0%
Lamine Camara0%
Paris Brunner0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Anis Soubeir0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Paris Brunner50%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo25%
Aleksandr Golovin0%
Eric Dier0%
Lukáš Hrádecký0%
Denis Zakaria0%
Mika Biereth0%
Vanderson0%
Nazinho0%
Lamine Camara0%
Mamadou Coulibaly0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Mathys Detourbet0%
Anis Soubeir0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Paris Saint Germain's squad is €1152m more valuable than Monaco's (€1477m vs €326m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Paris Saint Germain's attack is €490m more valuable than Monaco's (€638m vs €148m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Paris Saint Germain's midfield is €346m more valuable than Monaco's (€430m vs €84m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Paris Saint Germain's defence is €316m more valuable than Monaco's (€409m vs €93m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lille
Paris FC
Lyon
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