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Pärnu vs FCI Levadia II Result & Analysis

Date: 09/04/2022
Time: 09:30
Final 1-1
Pärnu
Pärnu
Vs
48%
23%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pärnu win✗ Miss
47.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II win✗ Miss
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

PärnuPärnu

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L11D01L01L00DH·TUL03/03A·VII06/03H·NÕM13/03A·K-J19/03A·ELV02/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.000.501.500.330.67
vs Stronger (3)0.330.670.001.000.500.50
vs Similar (2)0.501.501.002.000.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-443W03L14L30WA·ELV03/03A·PAI14/03A·FLO21/03H·VII03/04
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.002.503.000.001.673.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)2.002.503.000.001.673.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Pärnu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%08%119%221%319%414%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.1%
Under 1.5
11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
69.4%
Under 2.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
48.1%
Under 3.5
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
69.4%
No
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
9.7%
2-1
8.9%
2-2
6.9%
1-2
6.8%
3-1
6.0%
2-0
5.7%
1-0
4.8%
3-2
4.7%
Pärnu goals ↓
FCI Levadia II goals →
01234
03.7%3.5%3.4%1.8%0.7%
14.8%9.7%6.8%3.6%1.4%
25.7%8.9%6.9%3.6%1.4%
33.8%6.0%4.7%2.4%0.9%
41.9%3.0%2.4%1.2%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pärnu goals (down), columns = FCI Levadia II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Laagri
2.11
FCI Levadia II
1.89
Elva
1.83
Viimsi
1.75
Flora II
1.72
Nõmme United
1.67
Paide II
1.44
K-Järve JK Järve
0.82
Tulevik
0.64
Pärnu
0.56
Tallinna Kalev II
0.50
Pärnu is 1.33 points worse than FCI Levadia II in terms of average points per game (0.56 vs 1.89).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Laagri
2.69
Flora II
2.44
FCI Levadia II
2.36
Nõmme United
2.19
Elva
2.11
Viimsi
2.11
Paide II
2.08
Tallinna Kalev II
1.50
K-Järve JK Järve
0.87
Pärnu
0.83
Tulevik
0.78
Pärnu is 1.53 goals worse than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals scored per game (0.83 vs 2.36).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Viimsi
1.11
FCI Levadia II
1.25
Laagri
1.28
Elva
1.44
Flora II
1.44
Nõmme United
1.56
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Pärnu
2.14
Paide II
2.44
Tulevik
2.83
K-Järve JK Järve
2.84
Pärnu is 0.89 goals worse than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.14 vs 1.25).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PärnuPärnu

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-111D11D00D00D00DH·TUL03/03A·VII06/03H·NÕM13/03A·K-J19/03A·ELV02/04
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.400.500.500.330.33
vs Stronger (3)0.330.330.000.000.500.50
vs Similar (2)0.500.501.001.000.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L00D11D00DA·ELV03/03A·PAI14/03A·FLO21/03H·VII03/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.750.000.000.671.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.500.750.000.000.671.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Pärnu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pärnu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pärnu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pärnu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PärnuPärnu

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L00D01L01L00DH·TUL03/03A·VII06/03H·NÕM13/03A·K-J19/03A·ELV02/04
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.000.600.001.000.000.33
vs Stronger (3)0.000.330.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (2)0.001.000.001.000.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W03L03L30WA·ELV03/03A·PAI14/03A·FLO21/03H·VII03/04
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.753.000.001.002.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)1.501.753.000.001.002.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Pärnu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pärnu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pärnu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pärnu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.588.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (25)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (6)
€1m
NU (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
PÄR wins
0
Draws
0
FLI wins

Head-to-head

Pärnu vs FCI Levadia II · H/A from PÄR
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

PärnuPärnu

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/04/22AElva Vs PÄR0-0
19/03/22AK-Järve JK Järve Vs PÄR1-0
13/03/22HPÄR Vs Nõmme United0-1
06/03/22AViimsi Vs PÄR1-1
03/03/22HPÄR Vs Tulevik1-2

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/04/22HFLI Vs Viimsi3-0
21/03/22AFlora II Vs FLI4-1
14/03/22APaide II Vs FLI3-0
03/03/22AElva Vs FLI3-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Pärnu
Pärnu
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 0 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLD0.40
HomeLL0.00
AwayDLD0.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %0%0%0%
AVG goals1.402.001.00
Over 1.5 %40%50%33%
Over 2.5 %20%50%0%
Over 3.5 %0%0%0%
Scored0.400.500.33
Conceded1.001.500.67
BTTS40%50%33%
Clean Sheet20%0%33%
Corners---
Cards---
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLW1.50
HomeW3.00
AwayWLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%100%33%
AVG goals4.503.005.00
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %100%100%100%
Over 3.5 %50%0%67%
Scored2.003.001.67
Conceded2.500.003.33
BTTS50%0%67%
Clean Sheet25%100%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LaagriLaagri3676
67%
2.1
9746+51
4.0
81%
69%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.71.3
-
2FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3668
58%
1.9
8545+40
3.6
94%
72%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.2
-
3ElvaElva3666
56%
1.8
7652+24
3.6
81%
53%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.4
-
4ViimsiViimsi3663
56%
1.8
7640+36
3.2
75%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.1
-
5Flora IIFlora II3662
53%
1.7
8852+36
3.9
89%
78%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.4
-
6Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3660
50%
1.7
7956+23
3.8
94%
64%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.21.6
-
7Paide IIPaide II3652
47%
1.4
7588-13
4.5
100%
86%
72%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.12.4
-
8K-Järve JK JärveK-Järve JK Järve3831
24%
0.8
33108-75
3.7
84%
76%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.8
-
9TulevikTulevik3623
17%
0.6
28102-74
3.6
86%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.8
-
10PärnuPärnu3620
11%
0.6
3077-47
3.0
75%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.1
-
11Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II21
0%
0.5
34-1
3.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.0
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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