Partick are tipped to win in a tight encounter, with a 52% chance of triumph, 28% for a draw and 19% for Queen's Park to lift the trophy. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly open game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.2% probability. Partick’s home form shows they average 1.42 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Queen's Park, on the road, manage just 1 goal and concede 1.77. The model’s selections include Under 25.5 fouls at 82.9%, Over 2.5 cards at 81.2%, Under 3.5 (hit) at 78.6%, Under 11.5 corners at 72.3%, Under 5.5 cards at 72.3% and Under 23.5 fouls at 70.4%. Both sides have recently drawn 0-0 against each other, hinting at a cautious start. The match is expected to be evenly contested, but Partick’s home advantage and better defensive record give them the edge.
Results analysis
The match ended in a 1-1 draw, a shock that left the pre-match favourite, Home win, on the wrong side of the outcome. The model had given the home side a 52% chance of victory, yet the result was a stalemate. The suggested pick Under 3.5, with a 78.6% probability, was hit, confirming the low-scoring nature of the game. Partick, coming off a draw in their last five, failed to extend their run, while Queen’s Park also finished their five-match stretch with a draw. The final score of 1-1 matched the most likely 1-1 outcome, but the predicted 2-0 win for the home side was missed.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Partick win✗ Miss
52.4%
Avg Implied 59.7% · @ 1.52
Edge
-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.2%
Avg Implied 22.8% · @ 3.98
Edge
+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park win✗ Miss
19.3%
Avg Implied 17.5% · @ 5.20
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Partick
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.90
1.42
0.50
1.39
1.17
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.38
0.93
1.42
0.50
1.35
1.24
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Queen's Park
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.57
0.93
1.00
0.93
2.13
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
8.00
-
-
0.00
8.00
vs Similar (28)
0.96
1.36
0.93
1.00
1.00
1.77
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.6%
Under 1.5
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.2%
@ 1.69-12.6%
Under 2.5
57.8%
@ 2.05+12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.4%
Under 3.5
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.6%
No
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.2%
1-0
13.1%
2-0
11.0%
0-0
10.6%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
6.6%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
5.0%
Partick goals ↓
Queen's Park goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
6.6%
3.3%
0.9%
0.2%
1
13%
13%
5.0%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.2%
3.8%
1.1%
0.2%
3
5.6%
4.7%
2.0%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.1%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Partick goals (down), columns = Queen's Park goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Alloa Athletic
2.25
ST Johnstone
2.15
Partick
1.85
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rvs
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queens Park
1.14
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr
1.08
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Ross County
1.02
Queen of the South
1.00
Airdrie United
0.94
Partick is 0.72 points better than Queen's Park in terms of average points per game (1.85 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ST Johnstone
1.81
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Raith Rvs
1.19
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr
1.06
Ayr Utd
1.06
Ross County
1.04
Morton
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Queens Park
0.97
Queen's Park
0.97
Airdrie United
0.92
Partick is 0.53 goals better than Queen's Park in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
ST Johnstone
0.71
Partick
0.96
Alloa Athletic
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rvs
1.17
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr
1.31
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queens Park
1.33
Queen's Park
1.33
Airdrie United
1.34
Morton
1.38
Ross County
1.56
Partick is 0.37 goals better than Queen's Park in terms of goals conceded per game (0.96 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Partick
For 5.5 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.3 · Against 9.5 · Total 18.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Queen's Park
For 0.0 · Against 12.0 · Total 12.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.0 · Total 2.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 8.0 · Total 18.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Partick
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
9.4
11.0
1.2
1.5
1.0
20.6
20.6
20.7
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
2.0
2.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (48)
10.3
9.4
11.0
1.2
1.5
1.0
20.6
20.6
20.7
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
64%
40%
83%
16%
21%
12%
36%
40%
33%
% under line
36%
60%
17%
84%
79%
88%
64%
60%
67%
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Queen's Park
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.0
-
12.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
18.0
-
18.0
vs Stronger (3)
12.0
-
12.0
0.7
0.0
1.0
18.0
-
18.0
vs Similar (46)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
100%
-
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
% under line
0%
-
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
-
100%
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Queen's Park
12.0
Morton
11.0
Ross County
10.9
Partick
10.2
ST Johnstone
10.2
Airdrie United
10.1
Arbroath
9.9
Ayr
9.8
Dunfermline
9.2
Queens Park
9.0
Raith Rvs
8.7
Stenhousemuir
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Ayr Utd
4.8
Morton
4.6
Ayr
4.5
Partick
4.3
ST Johnstone
4.3
Raith Rvs
4.2
Queens Park
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Arbroath
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.4
Raith Rovers
3.0
Queen's Park
2.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
25.3
ST Johnstone
22.9
Ayr
22.7
Morton
21.8
Raith Rvs
21.6
Queens Park
21.4
Dunfermline
21.4
Ross County
21.3
Arbroath
20.8
Partick
20.5
Airdrie United
20.0
Queen's Park
18.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.2%
Under 9.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
63.7%
Under 3.5
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
45.6%
Under 21.5
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Partick
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.25
0.67
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.79
0.41
1.00
0.25
0.65
0.53
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Queen's Park
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.90
0.60
0.60
0.33
1.20
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
5.00
-
-
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (28)
0.46
0.79
0.60
0.60
0.31
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Partick over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Partick
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.42
0.25
0.72
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.59
0.52
0.42
0.25
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Queen's Park
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.33
0.40
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (28)
0.50
0.57
0.33
0.40
0.69
0.77
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Partick over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJ (25)
€5m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
STE (2)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
Partick's squad is €1m more valuable than Queen's Park's (€3m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJ (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Partick and Queen's Park have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Partick and Queen's Park have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Partick and Queen's Park have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Scotland: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →