Partizani’s defensive record at home is modest, conceding 1.29 goals per match against similar opposition, while their attack averages just 0.86. Egnatia Rrogozhinë, on the road, has a balanced 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded versus comparable teams. The model favours an away win, with a 41% probability, followed by a 34% chance of a draw and a 25% chance of a home victory. The expected total of 1.9 goals points to a tight encounter, and the single most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 16.2% probability. The model’s selections include an 87.4% chance of Under 3.5 and a 70.3% chance of Under 2.5. Partizani are coming off a defeat to Laci, while Egnatia remain unbeaten in five matches, having beaten Vora 3-1. The forecast suggests a low-scoring draw, but the odds lean toward the visitors securing the win.
Results analysis
The 1-1 draw surprised everyone, as the pre-match favourite, Away win at 41%, failed to materialise. Partizani, coming off a defeat and with a recent run of LDWLL, could not break the stalemate, while Egnatia Rrogozhinë, unbeaten in their last five, held firm. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals, with an 87.4% probability, proved correct, as did Under 2.5 goals at 70.3%. The predicted most likely total of 2 goals, at 28%, was also hit. The outcome, a draw, marked the end of Partizani’s slump and the continuation of Egnatia’s solid form.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Partizani win✗ Miss
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
34.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë win✗ Miss
40.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Partizani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.15
1.10
0.80
1.10
1.50
1.10
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.07
1.07
0.86
1.29
1.29
0.86
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
1.17
0.67
0.67
2.00
1.67
Clean sheet %
25% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.06
0.78
1.22
0.89
0.89
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.08
0.75
1.50
0.83
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.83
0.67
1.00
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Partizani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
58.1%
Under 1.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
29.7%
Under 2.5
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.6%
Under 3.5
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
38.3%
No
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.2%
0-1
15.0%
1-1 ✓
14.5%
1-0
10.8%
0-2
8.9%
1-2
7.2%
2-1
5.4%
2-0
4.9%
Partizani goals ↓
Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
15%
8.9%
3.2%
0.9%
1
11%
15%
7.2%
2.6%
0.7%
2
4.9%
5.4%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
3
1.3%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Partizani goals (down), columns = Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tirana
1.86
Partizani
1.86
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.44
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.39
Laci
1.33
Teuta Durrës
1.33
FK Kukesi
1.25
Erzeni Shijak
1.11
Bylis
1.06
Korabi Peshkopi
1.00
Kastrioti Krujë
0.97
Partizani is 0.42 points better than Egnatia Rrogozhinë in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tirana
1.56
Partizani
1.56
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Laci
1.25
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.08
Korabi Peshkopi
1.00
Erzeni Shijak
1.00
Teuta Durrës
0.92
FK Kukesi
0.86
Bylis
0.86
Kastrioti Krujë
0.72
Partizani is 0.28 goals better than Egnatia Rrogozhinë in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 1.28).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.89
Tirana
0.92
FK Kukesi
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
1.00
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.03
Partizani
1.03
Teuta Durrës
1.11
Bylis
1.17
Laci
1.28
Erzeni Shijak
1.32
Kastrioti Krujë
1.36
Partizani is 0.14 goals worse than Egnatia Rrogozhinë in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 0.89).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Partizani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.55
0.50
0.40
0.40
0.70
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.57
0.29
0.43
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
55% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.44
0.11
0.56
0.11
0.33
0.11
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.08
0.67
0.17
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.17
0.33
0.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
89% (+57pp vs league)
This opponent (Partizani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Partizani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Partizani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.40
0.70
0.80
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.50
0.57
0.86
0.57
0.14
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.83
0.00
0.33
1.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.61
0.67
0.67
0.78
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.67
0.83
0.67
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.67
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Partizani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Partizani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
FK (20)
€1m
Partizani's squad is €1m less valuable than Egnatia Rrogozhinë's (€5m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
FK (6)
€0m
Partizani and Egnatia Rrogozhinë have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (4)
€0m
FK (4)
€0m
Partizani and Egnatia Rrogozhinë have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
Partizani's defence is €1m less valuable than Egnatia Rrogozhinë's (€2m vs €3m).
Albania: Superliga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →