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Partizani vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë Result & Analysis

Date: 30/01/2023
Time: 18:00
Final 1-1
Partizani
Partizani
Vs
25%
34%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Albania: Superliga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Partizani’s defensive record at home is modest, conceding 1.29 goals per match against similar opposition, while their attack averages just 0.86. Egnatia Rrogozhinë, on the road, has a balanced 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded versus comparable teams. The model favours an away win, with a 41% probability, followed by a 34% chance of a draw and a 25% chance of a home victory. The expected total of 1.9 goals points to a tight encounter, and the single most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 16.2% probability. The model’s selections include an 87.4% chance of Under 3.5 and a 70.3% chance of Under 2.5. Partizani are coming off a defeat to Laci, while Egnatia remain unbeaten in five matches, having beaten Vora 3-1. The forecast suggests a low-scoring draw, but the odds lean toward the visitors securing the win.

Results analysis

The 1-1 draw surprised everyone, as the pre-match favourite, Away win at 41%, failed to materialise. Partizani, coming off a defeat and with a recent run of LDWLL, could not break the stalemate, while Egnatia Rrogozhinë, unbeaten in their last five, held firm. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals, with an 87.4% probability, proved correct, as did Under 2.5 goals at 70.3%. The predicted most likely total of 2 goals, at 28%, was also hit. The outcome, a draw, marked the end of Partizani’s slump and the continuation of Egnatia’s solid form.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Partizani win✗ Miss
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
34.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë win✗ Miss
40.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

PartizaniPartizani

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W03L01L21W33D21W10W12L11D02LA·TEU21/10A·EGN30/10A·LAC03/11H·BYL14/11A·ERZ11/12H·FK 15/12A·TIR21/12H·VLL13/01A·KAS21/01H·TEU26/01
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.151.100.801.101.501.10
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.071.070.861.291.290.86
vs Weaker (6)1.331.170.670.672.001.67
Clean sheet %25% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W30W01L20W10W01L32W11D11D12LA·FK 22/10H·PAR30/10A·TIR03/11H·LAC13/11A·VLL12/12H·BYL16/12A·KAS22/12H·ERZ14/01A·TEU22/01H·FK 26/01
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.060.781.220.890.890.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.080.751.500.830.670.67
vs Weaker (6)1.000.830.671.001.330.67
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Partizani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%16%026%128%217%38%43%51%6+
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
58.1%
Under 1.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
29.7%
Under 2.5
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.6%
Under 3.5
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
38.3%
No
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.2%
0-1
15.0%
1-1 ✓
14.5%
1-0
10.8%
0-2
8.9%
1-2
7.2%
2-1
5.4%
2-0
4.9%
Partizani goals ↓
Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals →
01234
016%15%8.9%3.2%0.9%
111%15%7.2%2.6%0.7%
24.9%5.4%2.9%1.1%0.3%
31.3%1.4%0.8%0.3%0.1%
40.3%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Partizani goals (down), columns = Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Tirana
1.86
Partizani
1.86
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.44
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.39
Laci
1.33
Teuta Durrës
1.33
FK Kukesi
1.25
Erzeni Shijak
1.11
Bylis
1.06
Korabi Peshkopi
1.00
Kastrioti Krujë
0.97
Partizani is 0.42 points better than Egnatia Rrogozhinë in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.44).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tirana
1.56
Partizani
1.56
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Laci
1.25
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.08
Korabi Peshkopi
1.00
Erzeni Shijak
1.00
Teuta Durrës
0.92
FK Kukesi
0.86
Bylis
0.86
Kastrioti Krujë
0.72
Partizani is 0.28 goals better than Egnatia Rrogozhinë in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 1.28).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.89
Tirana
0.92
FK Kukesi
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
1.00
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.03
Partizani
1.03
Teuta Durrës
1.11
Bylis
1.17
Laci
1.28
Erzeni Shijak
1.32
Kastrioti Krujë
1.36
Partizani is 0.14 goals worse than Egnatia Rrogozhinë in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 0.89).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PartizaniPartizani

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W02L01L10W11D20W10W00D00D01LA·TEU21/10A·EGN30/10A·LAC03/11H·BYL14/11A·ERZ11/12H·FK 15/12A·TIR21/12H·VLL13/01A·KAS21/01H·TEU26/01
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.550.500.400.400.700.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.500.570.290.430.710.71
vs Weaker (6)0.670.330.670.330.670.33
Clean sheet %55% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W00D00D10W00D11D00D00D10WA·FK 22/10H·PAR30/10A·TIR03/11H·LAC13/11A·VLL12/12H·BYL16/12A·KAS22/12H·ERZ14/01A·TEU22/01H·FK 26/01
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.440.110.560.110.330.11
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.500.080.670.170.330.00
vs Weaker (6)0.330.170.330.000.330.33
Clean sheet %89% (+57pp vs league)
This opponent (Partizani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Partizani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PartizaniPartizani

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L00D11D22D01L00D12L11D01LA·TEU21/10A·EGN30/10A·LAC03/11H·BYL14/11A·ERZ11/12H·FK 15/12A·TIR21/12H·VLL13/01A·KAS21/01H·TEU26/01
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.600.400.700.800.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.570.500.570.860.570.14
vs Weaker (6)0.670.830.000.331.331.33
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W01L20W00D01L21W11D11D02LA·FK 22/10H·PAR30/10A·TIR03/11H·LAC13/11A·VLL12/12H·BYL16/12A·KAS22/12H·ERZ14/01A·TEU22/01H·FK 26/01
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.610.670.670.780.560.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.580.670.830.670.330.67
vs Weaker (6)0.670.670.331.001.000.33
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Partizani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Partizani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.587.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 2.570.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
FK (20)
€1m
Partizani's squad is €1m less valuable than Egnatia Rrogozhinë's (€5m vs €7m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
FK (6)
€0m
Partizani and Egnatia Rrogozhinë have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (4)
€0m
FK (4)
€0m
Partizani and Egnatia Rrogozhinë have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
Partizani's defence is €1m less valuable than Egnatia Rrogozhinë's (€2m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
PAR wins
0
Draws
1
ER wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Partizani vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · H/A from PAR
DateH/AGameScore
30/10/22AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs PAR3-0
20/08/22HPAR Vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë2-1

PartizaniPartizani

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/01/23HPAR Vs Teuta Durrës0-2
21/01/23AKastrioti Krujë Vs PAR1-1
13/01/23HPAR Vs Vllaznia Shkodër1-2
21/12/22ATirana Vs PAR0-1
15/12/22HPAR Vs FK Kukesi2-1
11/12/22AErzeni Shijak Vs PAR3-3
14/11/22HPAR Vs Bylis2-1
03/11/22ALaci Vs PAR1-0
30/10/22AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs PAR3-0
21/10/22ATeuta Durrës Vs PAR1-4

Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/01/23HER Vs FK Kukesi1-2
22/01/23ATeuta Durrës Vs ER1-1
14/01/23HER Vs Erzeni Shijak1-1
22/12/22AKastrioti Krujë Vs ER2-3
16/12/22HER Vs Bylis0-1
12/12/22AVllaznia Shkodër Vs ER0-1
13/11/22HER Vs Laci2-0
03/11/22ATirana Vs ER1-0
30/10/22HER Vs Partizani3-0
22/10/22AFK Kukesi Vs ER0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Partizani
Partizani
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDL1.65
HomeDWWLL1.30
AwayLLDWD2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%40%60%
AVG goals2.251.902.60
Over 1.5 %60%60%60%
Over 2.5 %45%40%50%
Over 3.5 %10%0%20%
Scored1.150.801.50
Conceded1.101.101.10
BTTS45%40%50%
Clean Sheet25%20%30%
Corners10.5013.008.00
Cards4.505.004.00
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDDL1.44
HomeWWLDL1.22
AwayWLWWD1.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %39%33%44%
AVG goals1.832.111.56
Over 1.5 %56%78%33%
Over 2.5 %33%44%22%
Over 3.5 %6%0%11%
Scored1.061.220.89
Conceded0.780.890.67
BTTS33%33%33%
Clean Sheet50%44%56%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TiranaTirana3667
56%
1.9
5633+23
2.5
69%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.60.9
-
2PartizaniPartizani3667
56%
1.9
5637+19
2.6
78%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.0
-
3Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë3652
39%
1.4
4632+14
2.2
64%
39%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2131.30.9
-
4Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër3650
36%
1.4
3937+2
2.1
58%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1131.11.0
-
5LaciLaci3648
39%
1.3
4546-1
2.5
64%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.3
-
6Teuta DurrësTeuta Durrës3648
33%
1.3
3340-7
2.0
61%
31%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2130.91.1
-
7FK KukesiFK Kukesi3645
33%
1.2
3135-4
1.8
58%
31%
6%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.0
-
8Erzeni ShijakErzeni Shijak3741
22%
1.1
3749-12
2.3
73%
38%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
9BylisBylis3638
25%
1.1
3142-11
2.0
61%
31%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.2
-
10Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë3635
22%
1.0
2649-23
2.1
53%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1100.71.4
-
11Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.0
-
Albania: Superliga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →

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