Partizani vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë Result & Analysis

Partizani’s defensive record at home shows a modest 0.86 goals conceded per match, while they average 1.14 goals scored against similarly strong opposition. Egnatia Rrogozhinë, on the road, has a slightly higher scoring rate of 1.29 goals per game and concedes 0.93, suggesting a tight contest. The model projects a low-scoring affair with an expected total of 2.1 goals, most likely 2 goals in total. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.8% chance. The model’s pick is an away win, with probabilities of a home win at 31%, a draw at 33%, and an away win at 36%. The suggested pick is Under 3.5 goals, with an 84.6% probability. Recent form hints at a fragile Partizani side after a defeat, whereas Egnatia Rrogozhinë remains unbeaten in their last five matches. The match is expected to be a defensive standoff, favouring the visitors.

The upset came early as Partizani snatched a 1-0 win, overturning the model’s pre-match favourite of an away victory, which had a 36% probability. The prediction was therefore wrong. The final score of 1-0 gave the home side a win, contrary to the model’s expectation. The model’s only other selection, Under 3.5, hit with an 84.6% probability. Partizani’s recent form, noted as coming off a defeat, had a last-five record of LDWLL, while Egnatia Rrogozhinë remained unbeaten in their last five with a WDWDW streak. The match finished 1-0, a home win that surprised the model’s forecast.