Defensive solidity will shape this encounter, with Partizani averaging 1.27 goals conceded at home against similar opposition while Skenderbeu Korce concedes 1.4 away. The model favours an away win, 37% probability, followed by a draw at 32% and a home win at 30%. The expected total of 2.1 goals points to a tight, low-scoring affair, most likely ending 1-1 with a 14.8% chance. Partizani’s recent form, a 1-2 loss to Laci, and Skenderbeu’s 2-2 draw with Vllaznia Shkodër hint at cautious play. The most probable scoreline, 1-1, reflects both sides’ modest scoring averages of 1.2 and 1.6 respectively. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.1%), Under 5.5 (97.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Under 4.5 (93.4%), Home under 2.5 goals (91.9%), and Away under 2.5 goals (89.3%). These selections underscore the expectation of a low-scoring, defensively dominated match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Partizani win
30.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
32.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce win
37.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Partizani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.30
1.20
1.27
1.13
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.17
1.30
1.20
1.27
1.13
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Skenderbeu Korce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Skenderbeu Korce
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.90
1.80
0.93
1.60
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.11
1.22
0.50
1.00
1.60
1.40
vs Weaker (21)
1.95
0.76
2.27
0.91
1.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Partizani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
64.3%
Under 1.5
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
36.0%
Under 2.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
16.8%
Under 3.5
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
44.2%
No
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
13.1%
0-1
12.1%
1-0
10.4%
0-2
7.7%
1-2
7.7%
2-1
6.7%
2-0
5.8%
Partizani goals ↓
Skenderbeu Korce goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
12%
7.7%
2.9%
0.8%
1
10%
15%
7.7%
2.9%
0.8%
2
5.8%
6.7%
3.8%
1.4%
0.4%
3
1.9%
2.2%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.5%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Partizani goals (down), columns = Skenderbeu Korce goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AF Elbasani
1.74
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.69
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.62
Partizani
1.33
Dinamo Tirana
1.33
Tirana
1.22
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Vora
1.17
Skenderbeu Korce
1.17
Laci
1.09
Partizani is 0.17 points better than Skenderbeu Korce in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
1.36
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Dinamo Tirana
1.15
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Vora
1.08
Partizani
1.06
Tirana
1.00
Skenderbeu Korce
0.91
Teuta Durrës
0.89
Laci
0.85
Partizani is 0.15 goals better than Skenderbeu Korce in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 0.91).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.85
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.90
Dinamo Tirana
0.97
Teuta Durrës
1.00
AF Elbasani
1.08
Vora
1.11
Skenderbeu Korce
1.21
Tirana
1.28
Laci
1.29
Partizani
1.33
Partizani is 0.12 goals worse than Skenderbeu Korce in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Partizani or Draw
62.4%
Avg Implied -
30%
32%
38%
covers Partizani + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Partizani or Skenderbeu Korce
67.8%
Avg Implied -
30%
32%
38%
covers Partizani + Skenderbeu Korce
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Skenderbeu Korce
69.8%
Avg Implied -
30%
32%
38%
covers Draw + Skenderbeu Korce
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Partizani over/under 0.5
Over
63.0%
Under
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 1.5
Over
26.2%
Under
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 2.5
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 3.5
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 0.5
Over
68.1%
Under
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 1.5
Over
31.6%
Under
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 2.5
Over
10.8%
Under
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 3.5
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Partizani, so a minus line means Partizani give that many goals of a start and Skenderbeu Korce receive them. At -1, Partizani must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Partizani win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Partizani)
Partizani -2
3.3%
Draw -2
8.4%
Skenderbeu Korce +2
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Partizani)
Partizani -1
11.7%
Draw -1
18.5%
Skenderbeu Korce +1
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Partizani)
Partizani +1
62.4%
Draw +1
21.4%
Skenderbeu Korce -1
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Partizani)
Partizani +2
83.8%
Draw +2
11.1%
Skenderbeu Korce -2
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Partizani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.87
0.33
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.63
0.50
0.87
0.33
0.40
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Skenderbeu Korce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Skenderbeu Korce
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.40
0.80
0.33
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.22
0.33
0.25
0.00
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (21)
0.86
0.43
1.00
0.45
0.70
0.40
Clean sheet %
77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Partizani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Partizani over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Partizani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.33
0.93
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.53
0.80
0.33
0.93
0.73
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Skenderbeu Korce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Skenderbeu Korce
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.50
1.00
0.60
1.07
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.89
0.25
1.00
1.40
0.80
vs Weaker (21)
1.10
0.33
1.27
0.45
0.90
0.20
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Partizani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Partizani over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
VOR (25)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
Partizani's squad is €1m more valuable than Skenderbeu Korce's (€5m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
Partizani and Skenderbeu Korce have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
Partizani and Skenderbeu Korce have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
VOR (11)
€1m
Partizani and Skenderbeu Korce have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Albania: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Teuta Durrës
Laci
Dinamo Tirana
Vora
Vllaznia Shkodër
AF Elbasani
Tirana