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Partizani vs Teuta Durrës Result & Analysis

Date: 07/12/2023
Time: 16:00
Final 1-1
Partizani
Partizani
Vs
63%
23%
14%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Teuta Durrës
Teuta Durrës
Albania: Superliga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Partizani enter the match as clear favourites, the model rating a 63% chance of a home win, a 23% draw and a 14% away win. The prediction favours a 2-0 victory for the hosts, the most likely scoreline with an 11.3% probability, while the average expected total goals is 2.9, with the most common total being two goals at 24%. Partizani’s home form shows they score 1.75 and concede only 0.67 goals against similar opponents, whereas Teuta Durrës, playing away, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.83 conceded to comparable teams. The model’s single selection is Over 1.5 goals, with a 79.5% probability. Home win 63%, draw 23%, away win 14%. The recent form narrative is that Partizani are coming off a defeat, while Teuta Durrës remain unbeaten in their last five. The model’s pick and the statistics together underline why the hosts are the most likely to prevail.

Results analysis

The pre-match favourite, Partizani, failed to deliver as the game finished 1-1, a draw that surprised the model’s 63% confidence in a home win. The model’s pick was wrong, and the final score matched the most likely 2-0 outcome only in goal count, not in result. The only other settled selection was Over 1.5 goals, which hit with a 79.5% probability. Partizani’s recent form, marked by a loss, contrasted with Teuta Durrës’ unbeaten run, yet neither side could secure victory. The match ended in a stalemate, leaving the model’s prediction unfulfilled.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Partizani win✗ Miss
63.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës win✗ Miss
14.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

PartizaniPartizani

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L43W21W21W10W10W41W11D00D11DA·SKE01/10H·FK 08/10H·TIR19/10A·ERZ23/10A·TEU28/10A·LAC01/11H·VLL06/11A·EGN23/11H·DIN27/11A·TIR03/12
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.630.902.000.861.310.94
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)1.360.801.750.671.000.92
vs Weaker (5)3.001.403.502.002.671.00
Clean sheet %27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Teuta Durrës) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Teuta DurrësTeuta Durrës

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W01L32W01L02L11D13L01L00DH·FK 27/09A·EGN01/10H·ERZ08/10A·DIN22/10H·PAR28/10A·TIR01/11H·LAC05/11A·SKE24/11H·VLL28/11A·FK 03/12
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.130.870.800.801.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.961.420.921.001.001.83
vs Weaker (6)0.330.000.670.000.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Partizani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.5%
Under 1.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.3%
Under 2.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.0%
Under 3.5
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.6%
No
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.3%
1-1 ✓
10.7%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.9%
3-0
7.6%
3-1
6.7%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
4.3%
Partizani goals ↓
Teuta Durrës goals →
01234
06.5%3.9%2.1%0.6%0.1%
110%11%4.3%1.2%0.3%
211%9.9%4.3%1.3%0.3%
37.6%6.7%2.9%0.8%0.2%
43.8%3.4%1.5%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Partizani goals (down), columns = Teuta Durrës goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.76
Partizani
1.74
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.58
Skenderbeu Korce
1.42
Teuta Durrës
1.39
Tirana
1.39
Dinamo Tirana
1.31
Laci
1.27
Flamurtari
1.00
Erzeni Shijak
0.89
FK Kukesi
0.75
Partizani is 0.35 points better than Teuta Durrës in terms of average points per game (1.74 vs 1.39).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tirana
1.56
Partizani
1.37
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.37
Dinamo Tirana
1.17
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Skenderbeu Korce
1.05
Laci
1.03
Teuta Durrës
1.00
Flamurtari
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.86
Erzeni Shijak
0.81
Partizani is 0.37 goals better than Teuta Durrës in terms of goals scored per game (1.37 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Partizani
0.79
Laci
0.86
Teuta Durrës
0.97
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.97
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.00
Flamurtari
1.00
Skenderbeu Korce
1.11
Dinamo Tirana
1.19
Tirana
1.36
FK Kukesi
1.56
Erzeni Shijak
1.58
Partizani is 0.18 goals better than Teuta Durrës in terms of goals conceded per game (0.79 vs 0.97).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PartizaniPartizani

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D31W00D10W00D00D31W11D00D01LA·SKE01/10H·FK 08/10H·TIR19/10A·ERZ23/10A·TEU28/10A·LAC01/11H·VLL06/11A·EGN23/11H·DIN27/11A·TIR03/12
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.371.210.360.310.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.560.321.000.250.150.38
vs Weaker (5)1.600.602.501.001.000.33
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Teuta Durrës) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Teuta DurrësTeuta Durrës

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D01L00D01L10W02L01L00DH·FK 27/09A·EGN01/10H·ERZ08/10A·DIN22/10H·PAR28/10A·TIR01/11H·LAC05/11A·SKE24/11H·VLL28/11A·FK 03/12
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.530.530.270.270.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.420.670.500.330.331.00
vs Weaker (6)0.330.000.670.000.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Partizani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Partizani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PartizaniPartizani

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L12L21W11D10W10W10W00D00D10WA·SKE01/10H·FK 08/10H·TIR19/10A·ERZ23/10A·TEU28/10A·LAC01/11H·VLL06/11A·EGN23/11H·DIN27/11A·TIR03/12
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.530.790.501.000.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.800.480.750.420.850.54
vs Weaker (5)1.400.801.001.001.670.67
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Teuta Durrës) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Teuta DurrësTeuta Durrës

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W01L31W01L01L01L11D00D00DH·FK 27/09A·EGN01/10H·ERZ08/10A·DIN22/10H·PAR28/10A·TIR01/11H·LAC05/11A·SKE24/11H·VLL28/11A·FK 03/12
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.600.330.530.530.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.540.750.420.670.670.83
vs Weaker (6)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Partizani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Partizani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
FK (20)
€1m
Partizani and Teuta Durrës have a similar squad value (both €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
FK (6)
€0m
Partizani and Teuta Durrës have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
FK (4)
€0m
Partizani and Teuta Durrës have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
Partizani and Teuta Durrës have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
4
PAR wins
0
Draws
1
TD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Partizani vs Teuta Durrës · H/A from PAR
DateH/AGameScore
28/10/23ATeuta Durrës Vs PAR0-1
29/05/23HPAR Vs Teuta Durrës2-0
01/04/23ATeuta Durrës Vs PAR0-2
26/01/23HPAR Vs Teuta Durrës0-2
21/10/22ATeuta Durrës Vs PAR1-4

PartizaniPartizani

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/12/23ATirana Vs PAR1-1
27/11/23HPAR Vs Dinamo Tirana0-0
23/11/23AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs PAR1-1
06/11/23HPAR Vs Vllaznia Shkodër4-1
01/11/23ALaci Vs PAR0-1
28/10/23ATeuta Durrës Vs PAR0-1
23/10/23AErzeni Shijak Vs PAR1-2
19/10/23HPAR Vs Tirana2-1
08/10/23HPAR Vs FK Kukesi4-3
01/10/23ASkenderbeu Korce Vs PAR1-0

Teuta DurrësTeuta Durrës

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/12/23AFK Kukesi Vs TD0-0
28/11/23HTD Vs Vllaznia Shkodër0-1
24/11/23ASkenderbeu Korce Vs TD3-1
05/11/23HTD Vs Laci1-1
01/11/23ATirana Vs TD2-0
28/10/23HTD Vs Partizani0-1
22/10/23ADinamo Tirana Vs TD2-3
08/10/23HTD Vs Erzeni Shijak0-1
01/10/23AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs TD0-1
27/09/23HTD Vs FK Kukesi0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Partizani
Partizani
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDDD1.88
HomeDWWWD2.17
AwayWWWDD1.63
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%65%44%
AVG goals2.562.872.30
Over 1.5 %74%87%63%
Over 2.5 %44%57%33%
Over 3.5 %20%22%19%
Scored1.581.911.30
Conceded0.980.961.00
BTTS60%70%52%
Clean Sheet26%26%26%
Corners8.868.759.00
Cards4.254.004.50
Teuta Durrës
Teuta Durrës
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLD1.22
HomeDLLDL1.40
AwayWWLLD1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%36%24%
AVG goals2.081.682.48
Over 1.5 %58%48%68%
Over 2.5 %30%20%40%
Over 3.5 %20%8%32%
Scored0.860.840.88
Conceded1.220.841.60
BTTS38%36%40%
Clean Sheet40%44%36%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë3867
50%
1.8
5238+14
2.4
66%
42%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2131.41.0
-
2PartizaniPartizani3866
47%
1.7
5230+22
2.2
63%
37%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.40.8
-
3Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër3860
42%
1.6
4337+6
2.1
58%
34%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1131.11.0
-
4Skenderbeu KorceSkenderbeu Korce3854
42%
1.4
4042-2
2.2
53%
29%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.11.1
-
5TiranaTirana3650
36%
1.4
5649+7
2.9
78%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.4
-
6Teuta DurrësTeuta Durrës3650
36%
1.4
3635+1
2.0
50%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.01.0
-
7LaciLaci3747
27%
1.3
3832+6
1.9
59%
24%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.00.9
-
8Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana3647
36%
1.3
4243-1
2.4
67%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.21.2
-
9Erzeni ShijakErzeni Shijak3632
19%
0.9
2957-28
2.4
61%
47%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.6
-
10FK KukesiFK Kukesi3627
17%
0.8
3156-25
2.4
61%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.6
-
11FlamurtariFlamurtari11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Albania: Superliga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →

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