PythiaFootballBETA
Feyenoord is expected to secure a win away at PEC Zwolle, with the model predicting a 51% chance of an away victory. The match is likely to be low-scoring, with an expected total of 2.7 goals. A 1-1 scoreline is the most likely outcome, occurring with a 12.6% probability.
PEC Zwolle has struggled at home, scoring an average of 1.25 goals and conceding 1.75 against stronger opponents. Conversely, Feyenoord has averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded while away against weaker opponents.
The model suggests Over 1.5 goals (77.1%) and Under 3.5 goals (70.4%) as its selections. PEC Zwolle has a 23% chance of winning, a 26% chance of drawing, and a 51% chance of losing. Feyenoord's selections include a 51% chance of winning, a 26% chance of drawing, and a 23% chance of losing.
The win extends PEC Zwolle's recent woes, as they were defeated 0-2 at home. Feyenoord's away form has been impressive, with a win over PEC Zwolle in their last meeting. The model's selection, Feyenoord to win away, proved correct with the final result being an away win. The model's probability of this outcome was 51%. The model's call was also supported by the suggested picks, with Over 1.5 goals hitting at 77.1% probability and Under 3.5 goals also hitting at 70.4% probability.
PEC Zwolle| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 2.23 | 1.43 | 1.21 | 1.31 | 3.12 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 1.18 | 2.55 | 1.25 | 1.75 | 1.14 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.47 | 2.05 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.44 | 3.22 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-11pp vs league) | |||||
Feyenoord| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.80 | 1.67 | 2.38 | 1.56 | 1.14 | 1.79 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (4) | 0.75 | 1.75 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (24) | 2.04 | 1.54 | 2.75 | 1.42 | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-11pp vs league) | |||||
| Feyenoord goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.6% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 5.1% | 2.1% |
| 1 | 5.7% | 13% | 9.7% | 5.4% | 2.3% |
| 2 | 3.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| 3 | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
PEC ZwolleFeyenoordPEC Zwolle| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.1 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 22.9 | 24.3 | 21.5 |
| vs Stronger (20) | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 22.1 | 22.5 | 21.7 |
| vs Similar (29) | 8.9 | 9.5 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 23.4 | 25.8 | 21.4 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 14.0 | 14.0 | - | 4.0 | 4.0 | - | 24.0 | 24.0 | - |
| % over line | 44% | 48% | 40% | 48% | 48% | 48% | 60% | 76% | 44% |
| % under line | 56% | 52% | 60% | 52% | 52% | 52% | 40% | 24% | 56% |
Feyenoord| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.6 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 23.0 | 22.6 | 23.3 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 10.7 | 10.5 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 19.0 | 20.5 | 16.0 |
| vs Similar (10) | 10.0 | 8.2 | 11.8 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 25.2 | 25.0 | 25.4 |
| vs Weaker (37) | 9.4 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 22.7 | 22.2 | 23.2 |
| % over line | 42% | 40% | 44% | 48% | 40% | 56% | 56% | 56% | 56% |
| % under line | 58% | 60% | 56% | 52% | 60% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 77.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 70.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/12/25 | A | 6-1 | |
| 25/04/25 | A | 4-0 | |
| 18/08/24 | H | 1-5 | |
| 05/05/24 | A | 5-0 | |
| 08/10/23 | H | 0-2 | |
| 13/03/22 | H | 1-2 | |
| 21/11/21 | A | 4-0 | |
| 13/01/21 | A | 1-0 |
PEC Zwolle| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 23/04/26 | A | 6-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 13/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 01/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 22/02/26 | A | 1-1 |
Feyenoord| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 15/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 3-3 | |
| 01/03/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 22/02/26 | H | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 34 | 84 | 79% | 2.5 | 101 | 45 | +56 | 4.3 | 97% | 85% | 59% | 11.6 | 79% | 3.4 | 29% | 18.6 | 21% | 323 | 139 | 77 | 108 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 61% |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 34 | 65 | 56% | 1.9 | 70 | 44 | +26 | 3.4 | 85% | 59% | 38% | 10.6 | 56% | 3.6 | 45% | 21.6 | 50% | 216 | 78 | 51 | 87 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 53% |
| 3 |  Ajax | 36 | 60 | 42% | 1.7 | 65 | 42 | +23 | 3.0 | 94% | 56% | 39% | 10.0 | 53% | 3.7 | 44% | 22.4 | 58% | 260 | 119 | 53 | 87 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 4 |  NEC Nijmegen | 34 | 59 | 47% | 1.7 | 77 | 53 | +24 | 3.8 | 97% | 74% | 56% | 10.1 | 53% | 4.1 | 47% | 24.1 | 65% | 62 | 27 | 26 | 9 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 57% |
| 5 |  Twente | 34 | 58 | 44% | 1.7 | 59 | 40 | +19 | 2.9 | 85% | 50% | 32% | 9.5 | 38% | 3.6 | 38% | 20.6 | 41% | 84 | 26 | 13 | 45 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 54% |
| 6 |  Utrecht | 36 | 57 | 44% | 1.6 | 59 | 45 | +14 | 2.9 | 83% | 50% | 33% | 9.9 | 58% | 3.4 | 46% | 21.9 | 47% | 88 | 30 | 24 | 34 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 47% |
| 7 |  AZ Alkmaar | 34 | 52 | 41% | 1.5 | 58 | 51 | +7 | 3.2 | 82% | 65% | 44% | 10.3 | 56% | 3.6 | 39% | 21.6 | 50% | 205 | 100 | 43 | 62 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 53% |
| 8 |  Heerenveen | 36 | 51 | 39% | 1.4 | 59 | 58 | +1 | 3.2 | 94% | 69% | 39% | 10.6 | 61% | 3.1 | 37% | 20.4 | 42% | 49 | 22 | 6 | 20 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 51% |
| 9 |  Groningen | 35 | 48 | 40% | 1.4 | 49 | 47 | +2 | 2.7 | 89% | 54% | 23% | 11.0 | 60% | 3.5 | 45% | 20.8 | 51% | 32 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 10 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 34 | 43 | 35% | 1.3 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 3.0 | 76% | 53% | 38% | 11.2 | 68% | 4.1 | 68% | 20.7 | 44% | 32 | 13 | 2 | 16 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 47% |
| 11 |  Fortuna Sittard | 34 | 39 | 32% | 1.1 | 49 | 63 | -14 | 3.3 | 88% | 68% | 38% | 11.1 | 59% | 3.6 | 42% | 23.9 | 65% | 22 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 45% |
| 12 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 34 | 38 | 24% | 1.1 | 54 | 53 | +1 | 3.1 | 85% | 62% | 47% | 11.6 | 71% | 3.5 | 39% | 19.1 | 24% | 36 | 17 | 6 | 14 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 49% |
| 13 |  Excelsior | 34 | 38 | 29% | 1.1 | 43 | 56 | -13 | 2.9 | 82% | 62% | 29% | 9.3 | 44% | 3.3 | 40% | 21.0 | 41% | 19 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 14 |  Telstar | 34 | 37 | 26% | 1.1 | 49 | 55 | -6 | 3.1 | 88% | 59% | 38% | 11.1 | 65% | 3.5 | 41% | 21.6 | 47% | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 37 | 26% | 1.1 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 3.4 | 85% | 62% | 44% | 9.7 | 50% | 3.5 | 47% | 23.3 | 68% | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 45% |
| 16 |  FC Volendam | 34 | 32 | 24% | 0.9 | 35 | 55 | -20 | 2.6 | 85% | 59% | 18% | 10.3 | 62% | 3.8 | 50% | 21.8 | 50% | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 17 |  NAC Breda | 35 | 32 | 20% | 0.9 | 37 | 58 | -21 | 2.7 | 71% | 49% | 26% | 10.1 | 57% | 3.8 | 50% | 23.7 | 69% | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 18 |  Heracles | 34 | 19 | 15% | 0.6 | 35 | 85 | -50 | 3.5 | 91% | 71% | 38% | 10.5 | 50% | 3.9 | 53% | 24.8 | 74% | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 45% |