PEC Zwolle’s recent slide - a 1-3 loss to NEC - has left the home side struggling to score, with an average of 0.8 goals per game and conceding 1.6. Feyenoord, meanwhile, have been unbeaten in five outings, averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.38 conceded on the road, and the model rates them as the clear favourite with a 72% chance of victory. The predicted outcome is an away win, and the most likely scoreline is 0-2, carrying a 11.5% probability. The match is expected to see about 3.2 goals in total, with the single most probable total being 3 goals, a 22% chance. Home win probability sits at 10%, draw at 18%, and away win at 72%. The model’s selections include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.2%, Under 7.5 at 98.8% with a 4% edge, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.6% with a 3% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.0% with a 6% edge, Under 6.5 at 96.6% with a 6% edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 95.6% with a 9% edge, Away +2 handicap at 95.1% with a 2% edge, and Home under 2.5 goals at 93.5% with a 6% edge.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
PEC Zwolle win
9.9%
Avg Implied 14.0% · @ 6.67
Edge
-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.20
Betfair
7.00
1xBet
6.80
Marathonbet
6.60
Draw
18.0%
Avg Implied 18.3% · @ 5.11
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
5.40
1xBet
5.25
Betano
5.20
Marathonbet
5.10
10Bet
5.10
Feyenoord win
72.1%
Avg Implied 67.7% · @ 1.38
Edge
+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.42
William Hil
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
PEC Zwolle
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
2.13
1.33
1.27
1.47
3.00
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
2.50
0.80
1.60
1.00
3.40
vs Similar (19)
1.53
2.00
1.60
1.10
1.44
3.00
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Feyenoord) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Feyenoord
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.53
2.27
1.53
1.53
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
2.00
1.00
1.67
0.00
2.50
vs Weaker (25)
2.16
1.44
2.58
1.50
1.77
1.38
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (PEC Zwolle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.3%
@ 1.09-1.6%
Under 1.5
15.7%
@ 6.58+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Under
Unibet
7.50
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.40
1xBet
6.05
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.0%
@ 1.34-6.7%
Under 2.5
37.0%
@ 3.07+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Under
Unibet
3.25
10Bet
3.10
Bet365
3.10
Betano
3.10
Marathonbet
2.94
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.8%
@ 1.88-9.5%
Under 3.5
59.2%
@ 1.90+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.89
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.85
Under
Unibet
1.94
1xBet
1.92
Betano
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
Both teams to score
Yes
51.7%
@ 1.51-9.5%
No
48.3%
@ 2.39+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.53
Unibet
1.52
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
No
Betano
2.42
William Hil
2.40
10Bet
2.40
1xBet
2.39
Unibet
2.38
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.5%@ 9.06+6.5%
1-2
9.4%@ 8.07+3.8%
0-3
9.3%@ 10.38+4.9%
0-1
8.7%@ 10.78+4.5%
1-1
8.5%@ 10.03+4.0%
1-3
7.6%@ 9.41+2.8%
0-4
5.6%@ 15.00+2.6%
0-0
4.7%@ 23.19+2.7%
PEC Zwolle goals ↓
Feyenoord goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
8.7%
11%
9.3%
5.6%
1
2.4%
8.5%
9.4%
7.6%
4.6%
2
1.3%
3.2%
3.8%
3.1%
1.9%
3
0.4%
0.9%
1.1%
0.8%
0.5%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = PEC Zwolle goals (down), columns = Feyenoord goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
PEC Zwolle is 0.82 points worse than Feyenoord in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 1.91).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
PEC Zwolle is 0.76 goals worse than Feyenoord in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 2.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
PEC Zwolle is 0.79 goals worse than Feyenoord in terms of goals conceded per game (2.09 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
PEC Zwolle is 8.1 percentage points worse than Feyenoord in terms of average possession (45% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
PEC Zwolle
For 3.9 · Against 5.9 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 10.6 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Feyenoord
For 6.6 · Against 3.5 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.2 · Against 12.0 · Total 21.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
PEC Zwolle
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
10.2
8.6
3.1
3.6
2.7
22.7
25.0
20.5
vs Stronger (17)
9.7
10.6
8.8
2.9
3.4
2.2
22.9
23.7
22.1
vs Similar (32)
9.3
10.1
8.6
3.2
3.7
2.9
22.8
25.7
20.1
vs Weaker (1)
9.0
-
9.0
2.0
-
2.0
14.0
-
14.0
% over line
47%
58%
36%
46%
54%
38%
61%
83%
40%
% under line
53%
42%
64%
54%
46%
62%
39%
17%
60%
This opponent (Feyenoord) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Feyenoord
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.8
9.8
3.3
2.9
3.7
22.6
22.2
23.0
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
10.0
8.2
11.5
4.5
3.2
5.5
25.3
22.8
27.3
vs Weaker (38)
10.3
11.4
9.2
3.1
2.8
3.4
21.8
22.1
21.6
% over line
50%
50%
50%
40%
38%
42%
54%
54%
54%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
60%
62%
58%
46%
46%
46%
This opponent (PEC Zwolle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
GO Ahead Eagles
11.3
PSV Eindhoven
11.3
Fortuna Sittard
10.8
Willem II
10.8
Sparta Rotterdam
10.7
Telstar
10.6
ADO Den Haag
10.6
AZ Alkmaar
10.4
Heerenveen
10.2
Feyenoord
10.1
Groningen
10.1
Cambuur
10.1
Twente
10.0
NEC Nijmegen
9.9
Utrecht
9.8
Ajax
9.7
Excelsior
9.4
PEC Zwolle
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cambuur
3.9
NEC Nijmegen
3.9
Twente
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.8
Feyenoord
3.7
Utrecht
3.7
AZ Alkmaar
3.7
Ajax
3.6
ADO Den Haag
3.6
Groningen
3.6
PSV Eindhoven
3.5
Fortuna Sittard
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.4
Telstar
3.3
GO Ahead Eagles
3.3
Willem II
3.1
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ADO Den Haag
26.5
Cambuur
26.4
NEC Nijmegen
23.9
Fortuna Sittard
23.4
Utrecht
23.2
Feyenoord
22.8
AZ Alkmaar
22.6
PEC Zwolle
22.5
Telstar
22.5
Willem II
22.3
Ajax
21.8
Excelsior
21.7
Groningen
20.7
Twente
20.6
Sparta Rotterdam
20.6
Heerenveen
20.0
GO Ahead Eagles
18.9
PSV Eindhoven
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
60.0%
@ 1.71+6.0%
Under 9.5
40.0%
@ 2.00-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.71
Under
Unibet
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
50.4%
Under 3.5
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
62.0%
Under 21.5
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
PEC Zwolle or Draw
36.2%
Avg Implied 32.0% · @ 2.95
Edge
+4.1%
10%
18%
72%
covers PEC Zwolle + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.15
Betfair
3.10
10Bet
3.00
Betano
2.92
1xBet
2.92
PEC Zwolle or Feyenoord
78.2%
Avg Implied 82.2% · @ 1.15
Edge
-4.0%
10%
18%
72%
covers PEC Zwolle + Feyenoord
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Draw or Feyenoord
85.6%
Avg Implied 85.8% · @ 1.10
Edge
-0.2%
10%
18%
72%
covers Draw + Feyenoord
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
PEC Zwolle over/under 0.5
Over
59.8%
@ 1.42-5.5%
Under
40.2%
@ 2.66+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.42
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Under
Betfair
2.75
Betano
2.75
10Bet
2.65
1xBet
2.64
Marathonbet
2.64
PEC Zwolle over/under 1.5
Over
23.2%
@ 3.00-7.8%
Under
76.8%
@ 1.35+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.10
1xBet
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Under
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Betfair
1.33
PEC Zwolle over/under 2.5
Over
6.5%
@ 7.56-5.8%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.06+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
7.70
Marathonbet
7.60
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
PEC Zwolle over/under 3.5
Over
1.4%
@ 20.17-3.4%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
26.00
Bet365
23.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Feyenoord over/under 0.5
Over
87.8%
@ 1.04-2.0%
Under
12.2%
@ 9.16+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Unibet
1.01
Under
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Unibet
9.50
1xBet
9.20
Betano
7.60
Feyenoord over/under 1.5
Over
62.1%
@ 1.30-9.4%
Under
37.9%
@ 3.26+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Under
Unibet
3.45
10Bet
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
1xBet
3.22
Feyenoord over/under 2.5
Over
35.1%
@ 1.96-12.5%
Under
64.9%
@ 1.78+12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.97
Under
Unibet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Feyenoord over/under 3.5
Over
16.2%
@ 3.36-11.4%
Under
83.8%
@ 1.28+11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.35
Betano
3.35
Marathonbet
3.35
Under
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to PEC Zwolle, so a minus line means PEC Zwolle give that many goals of a start and Feyenoord receive them. At -1, PEC Zwolle must win by two or more to land; a one-goal PEC Zwolle win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (PEC Zwolle)
PEC Zwolle -2
1.2%
@ 45.00-0.9%
Draw -2
3.7%
@ 19.50-1.2%
Feyenoord +2
95.1%
@ 1.02+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
56.00
Bet365
34.00
Draw
Betfair
20.00
Bet365
19.00
Away
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
Handicap -1 (PEC Zwolle)
PEC Zwolle -1
4.9%
@ 14.00-1.6%
Draw -1
9.4%
@ 8.75-0.9%
Feyenoord +1
85.6%
@ 1.09+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
15.00
Unibet
13.00
10Bet
13.00
Draw
Betfair
9.50
Unibet
9.00
Bet365
8.50
10Bet
8.00
Away
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
Unibet
1.08
Handicap +1 (PEC Zwolle)
PEC Zwolle +1
36.2%
@ 2.95+5.7%
Draw +1
23.0%
@ 3.92+0.1%
Feyenoord -1
40.9%
@ 1.92-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
3.10
10Bet
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Marathonbet
2.89
Bet365
2.75
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.84
10Bet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Away
Bet365
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
Betfair
1.91
10Bet
1.91
Unibet
1.81
Handicap +2 (PEC Zwolle)
PEC Zwolle +2
59.1%
@ 1.78+8.8%
Draw +2
19.7%
@ 4.23-1.6%
Feyenoord -2
21.2%
@ 3.17-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.88
10Bet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Away
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
10Bet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.05
Unibet
2.90
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
PEC Zwolle
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.83
0.93
0.33
0.53
1.33
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.70
0.60
0.00
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.89
1.10
0.50
0.56
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Feyenoord) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Feyenoord
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.73
0.93
0.67
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.20
1.40
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.08
0.60
1.08
0.58
1.08
0.62
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (PEC Zwolle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.6%
@ 1.18-7.0%
Under 0.5
28.4%
@ 4.33+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.80
William Hil
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.4%
@ 1.91-15.3%
Under 1.5
66.6%
@ 1.82+15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.02
1xBet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
Betfair
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Under
10Bet
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Unibet
1.80
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.9%
@ 3.85-12.2%
Under 2.5
88.1%
@ 1.22+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.90
William Hil
3.80
Under
10Bet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
PEC Zwolle over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.2%
@ 2.35-5.2%
Under
65.8%
@ 1.53+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.45
Betano
2.40
Marathonbet
2.33
10Bet
2.30
1xBet
2.27
Under
1xBet
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
Unibet
1.49
PEC Zwolle over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.6%
@ 8.05-4.9%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.04+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.30
1xBet
8.00
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
PEC Zwolle over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord over/under 0.5 HT
Over
59.8%
@ 1.39-7.2%
Under
40.2%
@ 2.82+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.39
10Bet
1.36
Unibet
1.36
Under
10Bet
2.95
Unibet
2.90
1xBet
2.75
Betano
2.67
Feyenoord over/under 1.5 HT
Over
20.7%
@ 2.79-12.4%
Under
79.3%
@ 1.38+12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.92
1xBet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.80
Unibet
2.75
10Bet
2.70
Under
10Bet
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Betano
1.37
Feyenoord over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.4%
@ 6.70-9.4%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.07+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.20
Betano
6.60
10Bet
6.50
Unibet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
1xBet
1.05
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
PEC Zwolle
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.30
0.40
0.93
0.93
1.67
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.80
0.20
1.60
0.80
2.00
vs Similar (19)
0.68
1.11
0.50
0.60
0.89
1.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Feyenoord) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Feyenoord
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
1.33
0.87
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.60
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (25)
1.08
0.84
1.50
0.92
0.69
0.77
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (PEC Zwolle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.6%
@ 1.11-3.0%
Under 0.5
18.4%
@ 6.06+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Under
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.40
Betano
6.10
10Bet
5.80
William Hil
5.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.9%
@ 1.55-10.0%
Under 1.5
50.1%
@ 2.32+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.62
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Under
Unibet
2.45
Betano
2.42
Marathonbet
2.30
10Bet
2.30
1xBet
2.30
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.7%
@ 2.69-12.9%
Under 2.5
78.3%
@ 1.42+12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.90
Bet365
2.75
10Bet
2.70
1xBet
2.65
Marathonbet
2.65
Under
Betano
1.47
Unibet
1.45
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
10Bet
1.40
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
PEC Zwolle over/under 0.5 2H
Over
40.0%
@ 1.95-7.5%
Under
60.0%
@ 1.76+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.01
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.90
Under
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.70
PEC Zwolle over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.2%
@ 5.65-6.1%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.10+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.20
1xBet
5.60
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
PEC Zwolle over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.0%
@ 11.25-6.4%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.02+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Feyenoord over/under 0.5 2H
Over
64.6%
@ 1.25-9.6%
Under
35.4%
@ 3.60+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Under
Betano
3.60
1xBet
3.60
Feyenoord over/under 1.5 2H
Over
27.8%
@ 2.16-15.1%
Under
72.2%
@ 1.62+15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.16
10Bet
2.15
Betano
2.15
Under
Betano
1.65
10Bet
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.60
Feyenoord over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.7%
@ 4.63-11.3%
Under
91.3%
@ 1.16+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.35
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+4.0%
Home under 3.5 goals
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.4%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.4%
Under 6.5
96.6%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Unibet
1.04
-
+6.1%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.6%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
1xBet
1.05
-
+9.4%
Away +2 handicap
95.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
-
-
-
+2.1%
Home under 2.5 goals
93.5%
1.06
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
+5.8%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.4%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
+4.9%
Under 5.5
91.5%
1.14
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
+9.8%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
91.3%
1.16
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
-
-
+11.3%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.8%
1.10
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
-
+6.1%
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.1%
1.22
10Bet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
+12.2%
Away over 0.5 goals
87.8%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Unibet
1.01
-2.0%
Draw or Away
85.6%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
-0.2%
Away +1 handicap
85.6%
1.09
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
Unibet
1.08
-
+2.5%
Over 1.5
84.3%
1.09
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
-1.6%
Away under 3.5 goals
83.8%
1.28
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
+11.4%
Under 5.5 cards
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.6%
1.11
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
-3.0%
Under 4.5
81.3%
1.37
Betano
1.40
Unibet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.34
+13.1%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
79.3%
1.38
10Bet
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Betano
1.37
+12.4%
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.3%
1.42
Betano
1.47
Unibet
1.45
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
10Bet
1.40
+12.9%
Home or Away
78.2%
1.15
William Hil
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Betfair
1.14
-4.0%
Over 19.5 fouls
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
76.8%
1.35
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Betfair
1.33
+7.8%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
72.2%
1.62
Betano
1.65
10Bet
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.60
-
+15.1%
Away win
72.1%
1.38
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.42
William Hil
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
+4.4%
Over 8.5 corners
71.8%
1.43
Unibet
1.43
-
-
-
-
+7.3%
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.6%
1.18
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
-7.0%
Over 2.5 cards
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
PEC Zwolle
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nick Viergever25%
Koen Kostons25%
Elias Sørensen25%
Ryan Thomas0%
Dylan Mbayo0%
Simon Graves0%
Jasper Schendelaar0%
Odysseus Velanas0%
Thijs Oosting0%
Tobias Sommer0%
Olivier Aertssen0%
Ibrahim Cissoko0%
Damian van der Haar0%
Gabriel Reiziger0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gabriel Reiziger33%
Ryan Thomas25%
Koen Kostons25%
Olivier Aertssen25%
Nick Viergever0%
Dylan Mbayo0%
Simon Graves0%
Jasper Schendelaar0%
Odysseus Velanas0%
Thijs Oosting0%
Elias Sørensen0%
Tobias Sommer0%
Ibrahim Cissoko0%
Damian van der Haar0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dylan Mbayo25%
Thijs Oosting25%
Nick Viergever0%
Ryan Thomas0%
Simon Graves0%
Jasper Schendelaar0%
Odysseus Velanas0%
Koen Kostons0%
Elias Sørensen0%
Tobias Sommer0%
Olivier Aertssen0%
Ibrahim Cissoko0%
Damian van der Haar0%
Gabriel Reiziger0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Koen Kostons25%
Nick Viergever0%
Ryan Thomas0%
Dylan Mbayo0%
Simon Graves0%
Jasper Schendelaar0%
Odysseus Velanas0%
Thijs Oosting0%
Elias Sørensen0%
Tobias Sommer0%
Olivier Aertssen0%
Ibrahim Cissoko0%
Damian van der Haar0%
Gabriel Reiziger0%
Feyenoord
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ayase Ueda75%
Luciano Valente50%
Gjivai Zechiël50%
Anis Hadj Moussa25%
Charles Vanhoutte0%
Tsuyoshi Watanabe0%
Jeremiah St Juste0%
Mika Mármol0%
Tjark Ernst0%
Oussama Targhalline0%
Nacho Ferri0%
Givairo Read0%
Thijs Kraaijeveld0%
Gaoussou Diarra0%
Shaqueel van Persie0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Charles Vanhoutte25%
Anis Hadj Moussa25%
Tsuyoshi Watanabe0%
Jeremiah St Juste0%
Ayase Ueda0%
Mika Mármol0%
Tjark Ernst0%
Oussama Targhalline0%
Luciano Valente0%
Nacho Ferri0%
Givairo Read0%
Thijs Kraaijeveld0%
Gjivai Zechiël0%
Gaoussou Diarra0%
Shaqueel van Persie0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Oussama Targhalline33%
Ayase Ueda25%
Anis Hadj Moussa25%
Gjivai Zechiël25%
Gaoussou Diarra25%
Charles Vanhoutte0%
Tsuyoshi Watanabe0%
Jeremiah St Juste0%
Mika Mármol0%
Tjark Ernst0%
Luciano Valente0%
Nacho Ferri0%
Givairo Read0%
Thijs Kraaijeveld0%
Shaqueel van Persie0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ayase Ueda75%
Anis Hadj Moussa50%
Gaoussou Diarra50%
Luciano Valente25%
Gjivai Zechiël25%
Charles Vanhoutte0%
Tsuyoshi Watanabe0%
Jeremiah St Juste0%
Mika Mármol0%
Tjark Ernst0%
Oussama Targhalline0%
Nacho Ferri0%
Givairo Read0%
Thijs Kraaijeveld0%
Shaqueel van Persie0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
PEC Zwolle's squad is €208m less valuable than Feyenoord's (€21m vs €229m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
PEC Zwolle's attack is €85m less valuable than Feyenoord's (€8m vs €93m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
PEC Zwolle's midfield is €39m less valuable than Feyenoord's (€4m vs €43m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
PEC Zwolle's defence is €84m less valuable than Feyenoord's (€10m vs €93m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AZ Alkmaar
PSV Eindhoven
Ajax
GO Ahead Eagles
Fortuna Sittard
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
Excelsior
Groningen
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
Telstar
Willem II
ADO Den Haag
Utrecht
Cambuur