Pennarossa are tipped to win, with the model favouring a home victory at 47%. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a lively encounter, yet the most probable total is two goals, a 24% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 12.3% probability, a tidy draw that balances both sides’ defensive frailties. Pennarossa, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 0.2 goals scored and 3.6 conceded, while Cailungo, on the road, manage 0.5 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. The suggested pick is Over 1.5, a 79.9% chance. Home win 47%, draw 26%, away win 26%. The model’s selection for Over 1.5 carries a 79.9% probability. The match is set to be a tight contest, with Pennarossa’s recent form showing a win after two losses, and Cailungo coming off a defeat.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Pennarossa fell to a 0-2 defeat, a result that shocked the pre-match favourite. The model had tipped a home win at 47% probability, but the call was wrong. The match finished with an away win, and the single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals at 79.9%, hit. Pennarossa’s recent form, marked by two straight defeats, ended with a loss, while Cailungo, coming off a defeat, managed a clean win. The model’s prediction of a home victory was incorrect, but its over-goals selection proved accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Pennarossa win✗ Miss
47.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cailungo win✓ Hit
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Pennarossa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
3.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
3.07
0.47
3.33
0.53
2.80
vs Stronger (21)
0.67
3.00
0.60
3.20
0.73
2.82
vs Similar (9)
0.11
3.22
0.20
3.60
0.00
2.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Cailungo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cailungo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
3.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
2.97
1.14
2.36
0.38
3.50
vs Stronger (21)
0.43
3.52
0.56
2.78
0.33
4.08
vs Similar (9)
1.44
1.67
2.20
1.60
0.50
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.9%
Under 1.5
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.7%
Under 2.5
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.3%
Under 3.5
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.6%
No
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
8.1%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
6.8%
0-0
6.6%
2-2
5.8%
0-1
5.5%
Pennarossa goals ↓
Cailungo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
5.5%
4.0%
1.6%
0.5%
1
8.1%
12%
6.8%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.8%
9.5%
5.8%
2.3%
0.7%
3
4.4%
5.4%
3.3%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.9%
2.3%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pennarossa goals (down), columns = Cailungo goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Virtus
2.63
La Fiorita
2.49
Tre Penne
1.97
Murata
1.91
Cosmos
1.86
Tre Fiori
1.81
Juvenes / Dogana
1.55
San Giovanni
1.50
Folgore
1.30
Fiorentino
1.23
Domagnano
1.13
Faetano
0.87
Libertas
0.77
San Marino Academy
0.73
Cailungo
0.47
Pennarossa
0.27
Pennarossa is 0.20 points worse than Cailungo in terms of average points per game (0.27 vs 0.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cosmos
2.37
Tre Penne
2.37
La Fiorita
2.17
Virtus
2.03
Tre Fiori
1.78
San Giovanni
1.78
Murata
1.77
Juvenes / Dogana
1.55
Faetano
1.47
Folgore
1.39
Fiorentino
1.29
San Marino Academy
1.07
Libertas
1.07
Domagnano
1.06
Pennarossa
0.60
Cailungo
0.50
Pennarossa is 0.10 goals better than Cailungo in terms of goals scored per game (0.60 vs 0.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
La Fiorita
0.60
Virtus
0.67
Murata
0.74
Cosmos
0.94
Tre Fiori
1.00
Tre Penne
1.03
Folgore
1.15
San Giovanni
1.44
Domagnano
1.45
Juvenes / Dogana
1.64
Fiorentino
1.84
Libertas
1.87
San Marino Academy
2.47
Cailungo
2.57
Faetano
2.63
Pennarossa
3.20
Pennarossa is 0.63 goals worse than Cailungo in terms of goals conceded per game (3.20 vs 2.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Pennarossa
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Cailungo
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Pennarossa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (34)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Cailungo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cailungo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (37)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Cosmos
10.0
Tre Fiori
9.0
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Penne
7.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
7.2
La Fiorita
4.5
Cosmos
4.5
Tre Penne
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Tre Penne
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pennarossa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.47
0.27
1.67
0.47
1.27
vs Stronger (21)
0.52
1.43
0.40
1.50
0.64
1.36
vs Similar (9)
0.00
1.56
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Cailungo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cailungo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
1.50
0.43
1.14
0.19
1.81
vs Stronger (21)
0.19
1.67
0.33
1.22
0.08
2.00
vs Similar (9)
0.56
1.11
0.60
1.00
0.50
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pennarossa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.13
1.60
0.20
1.67
0.07
1.53
vs Stronger (21)
0.14
1.57
0.20
1.70
0.09
1.45
vs Similar (9)
0.11
1.67
0.20
1.60
0.00
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Cailungo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cailungo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.47
0.71
1.21
0.19
1.69
vs Stronger (21)
0.24
1.86
0.22
1.56
0.25
2.08
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.56
1.60
0.60
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Pennarossa and Cailungo have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Pennarossa and Cailungo have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Pennarossa and Cailungo have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Pennarossa and Cailungo have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
La Fiorita
Virtus
Tre Penne
Murata
Cosmos
Tre Fiori
Juvenes / Dogana
San Giovanni
Folgore
Fiorentino
Domagnano
Faetano
Libertas
San Marino Academy