Pennarossa are favoured to win, with a 51% chance of taking the match home, a 29% chance of a draw and a 20% chance of a Cailungo victory. The model expects 2.4 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals, a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.4% chance.
Pennarossa have scored 1.5 goals per home game against similar opposition and concede only 0.5, while Cailungo averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.5 conceded on the road. The recent form shows Pennarossa coming off a defeat, whereas Cailungo are coming off a draw.
Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.9%), Under 5.5 (96.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.4%), Home +2 handicap (93.2%) and Under 4.5 (90.9%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Pennarossa win
51.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cailungo win
20.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Pennarossa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.83
1.15
1.38
0.94
2.18
vs Stronger (18)
0.72
2.39
0.86
2.14
0.64
2.55
vs Similar (12)
1.50
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.50
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Cailungo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cailungo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
2.37
0.75
2.31
0.86
2.43
vs Stronger (23)
0.74
2.65
0.77
2.54
0.70
2.80
vs Similar (7)
1.00
1.43
0.67
1.33
1.25
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-36pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.5%
Under 1.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
42.0%
Under 2.5
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.3%
Under 3.5
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
45.9%
No
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0
13.0%
2-0
10.7%
0-0
10.7%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
6.8%
3-0
5.4%
1-2
5.2%
Pennarossa goals ↓
Cailungo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
6.8%
3.4%
1.0%
0.2%
1
13%
13%
5.2%
1.5%
0.3%
2
11%
9.1%
3.9%
1.1%
0.2%
3
5.4%
4.6%
2.0%
0.6%
0.1%
4
2.0%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pennarossa goals (down), columns = Cailungo goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.00
Murata
1.75
Virtus
1.75
San Giovanni
1.50
Juvenes / Dogana
1.50
Tre Penne
1.25
Cailungo
1.00
Cosmos
0.75
Faetano
0.50
Fiorentino
0.50
Folgore
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Libertas
0.50
Pennarossa is 0.50 points worse than Cailungo in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tre Fiori
1.86
Tre Penne
1.50
Virtus
1.50
Juvenes / Dogana
1.33
Murata
1.25
San Giovanni
1.00
Cailungo
1.00
Fiorentino
1.00
Domagnano
1.00
Cosmos
0.75
Libertas
0.75
Faetano
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Folgore
0.00
Pennarossa is 0.50 goals worse than Cailungo in terms of goals scored per game (0.50 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Folgore
0.50
Virtus
0.50
Tre Fiori
0.71
Juvenes / Dogana
0.83
Tre Penne
1.00
San Giovanni
1.00
Cailungo
1.00
Murata
1.25
Faetano
1.50
Pennarossa
2.00
Libertas
2.00
Cosmos
2.25
Fiorentino
2.50
Domagnano
2.50
Pennarossa is 1.00 goals worse than Cailungo in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Pennarossa or Draw
80.0%
Avg Implied -
52%
28%
20%
covers Pennarossa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa or Cailungo
71.5%
Avg Implied -
52%
28%
20%
covers Pennarossa + Cailungo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Cailungo
48.5%
Avg Implied -
52%
28%
20%
covers Draw + Cailungo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5
Over
77.9%
Under
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5
Over
44.5%
Under
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5
Over
19.3%
Under
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 3.5
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 0.5
Over
57.3%
Under
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 1.5
Over
21.0%
Under
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 2.5
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 3.5
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Pennarossa, so a minus line means Pennarossa give that many goals of a start and Cailungo receive them. At -1, Pennarossa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Pennarossa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Pennarossa)
Pennarossa -2
11.0%
Draw -2
16.1%
Cailungo +2
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Pennarossa)
Pennarossa -1
27.1%
Draw -1
24.4%
Cailungo +1
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Pennarossa)
Pennarossa +1
80.0%
Draw +1
13.2%
Cailungo -1
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Pennarossa)
Pennarossa +2
93.2%
Draw +2
5.1%
Cailungo -2
1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pennarossa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.77
0.54
0.62
0.29
0.88
vs Stronger (18)
0.22
0.94
0.43
0.86
0.09
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.50
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Cailungo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cailungo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.93
0.38
1.00
0.29
0.86
vs Stronger (23)
0.30
1.17
0.38
1.15
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.14
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pennarossa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.07
0.62
0.77
0.65
1.29
vs Stronger (18)
0.50
1.44
0.43
1.29
0.55
1.55
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.50
0.83
0.17
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Cailungo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cailungo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.43
0.38
1.31
0.57
1.57
vs Stronger (23)
0.43
1.48
0.38
1.38
0.50
1.60
vs Similar (7)
0.57
1.29
0.33
1.00
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Pennarossa and Cailungo have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Pennarossa and Cailungo have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Pennarossa and Cailungo have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Pennarossa and Cailungo have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →