PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Pennarossa vs Cailungo Prediction & Stats

Date: 09/09/2026
Time: 18:45
Pennarossa
Pennarossa
Vs
52%
28%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Cailungo
Cailungo
San-Marino: Coppa Titano
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pennarossa are favoured to win, with a 51% chance of taking the match home, a 29% chance of a draw and a 20% chance of a Cailungo victory. The model expects 2.4 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals, a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.4% chance.

Pennarossa have scored 1.5 goals per home game against similar opposition and concede only 0.5, while Cailungo averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.5 conceded on the road. The recent form shows Pennarossa coming off a defeat, whereas Cailungo are coming off a draw.

Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.9%), Under 5.5 (96.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.4%), Home +2 handicap (93.2%) and Under 4.5 (90.9%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pennarossa win
51.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cailungo win
20.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

PennarossaPennarossa

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D01L05L20W21W10W00D11D03L25LA·SAN01/03H·LIB07/03A·LA 14/03H·MUR21/03A·CAI07/04A·COS12/04H·JUV18/04A·TRE26/04A·COS29/04A·TRE30/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.831.151.380.942.18
vs Stronger (18)0.722.390.862.140.642.55
vs Similar (12)1.501.001.500.501.501.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Cailungo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CailungoCailungo

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-612L12L23L13L12L12L16L16L11D12LA·SAN22/02H·DOM01/03A·TRE08/03H·FIO15/03A·COS21/03H·PEN07/04A·TRE11/04H·VIR19/04A·SAN25/04H·DOM28/08
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.802.370.752.310.862.43
vs Stronger (23)0.742.650.772.540.702.80
vs Similar (7)1.001.430.671.331.251.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %3% (-36pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.5%
Under 1.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
42.0%
Under 2.5
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.3%
Under 3.5
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
45.9%
No
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0
13.0%
2-0
10.7%
0-0
10.7%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
6.8%
3-0
5.4%
1-2
5.2%
Pennarossa goals ↓
Cailungo goals →
01234
011%6.8%3.4%1.0%0.2%
113%13%5.2%1.5%0.3%
211%9.1%3.9%1.1%0.2%
35.4%4.6%2.0%0.6%0.1%
42.0%1.7%0.7%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pennarossa goals (down), columns = Cailungo goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.00
Murata
1.75
Virtus
1.75
San Giovanni
1.50
Juvenes / Dogana
1.50
Tre Penne
1.25
Cailungo
1.00
Cosmos
0.75
Faetano
0.50
Fiorentino
0.50
Folgore
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Libertas
0.50
Pennarossa is 0.50 points worse than Cailungo in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tre Fiori
1.86
Tre Penne
1.50
Virtus
1.50
Juvenes / Dogana
1.33
Murata
1.25
San Giovanni
1.00
Cailungo
1.00
Fiorentino
1.00
Domagnano
1.00
Cosmos
0.75
Libertas
0.75
Faetano
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Folgore
0.00
Pennarossa is 0.50 goals worse than Cailungo in terms of goals scored per game (0.50 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Folgore
0.50
Virtus
0.50
Tre Fiori
0.71
Juvenes / Dogana
0.83
Tre Penne
1.00
San Giovanni
1.00
Cailungo
1.00
Murata
1.25
Faetano
1.50
Pennarossa
2.00
Libertas
2.00
Cosmos
2.25
Fiorentino
2.50
Domagnano
2.50
Pennarossa is 1.00 goals worse than Cailungo in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Pennarossa or Draw
80.0%
Avg Implied -
52%
28%
20%
covers Pennarossa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa or Cailungo
71.5%
Avg Implied -
52%
28%
20%
covers Pennarossa + Cailungo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Cailungo
48.5%
Avg Implied -
52%
28%
20%
covers Draw + Cailungo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5
Over
77.9%
Under
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5
Over
44.5%
Under
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5
Over
19.3%
Under
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 3.5
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 0.5
Over
57.3%
Under
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 1.5
Over
21.0%
Under
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 2.5
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 3.5
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Pennarossa, so a minus line means Pennarossa give that many goals of a start and Cailungo receive them. At -1, Pennarossa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Pennarossa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Pennarossa)
Pennarossa -2
11.0%
Draw -2
16.1%
Cailungo +2
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Pennarossa)
Pennarossa -1
27.1%
Draw -1
24.4%
Cailungo +1
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Pennarossa)
Pennarossa +1
80.0%
Draw +1
13.2%
Cailungo -1
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Pennarossa)
Pennarossa +2
93.2%
Draw +2
5.1%
Cailungo -2
1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PennarossaPennarossa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L02L10W00D00D00D00D01L11DA·SAN01/03H·LIB07/03A·LA 14/03H·MUR21/03A·CAI07/04A·COS12/04H·JUV18/04A·TRE26/04A·COS29/04A·TRE30/08
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.770.540.620.290.88
vs Stronger (18)0.220.940.430.860.091.00
vs Similar (12)0.670.500.670.330.670.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Cailungo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CailungoCailungo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D11D02L01L00D03L12L00D11DA·SAN22/02H·DOM01/03A·TRE08/03H·FIO15/03A·COS21/03H·PEN07/04A·TRE11/04H·VIR19/04A·SAN25/04H·DOM28/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.930.381.000.290.86
vs Stronger (23)0.301.170.381.150.201.20
vs Similar (7)0.430.140.330.330.500.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PennarossaPennarossa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D00D03L10W21W10W00D11D02L14LA·SAN01/03H·LIB07/03A·LA 14/03H·MUR21/03A·CAI07/04A·COS12/04H·JUV18/04A·TRE26/04A·COS29/04A·TRE30/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.070.620.770.651.29
vs Stronger (18)0.501.440.431.290.551.55
vs Similar (12)0.830.500.830.170.830.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Cailungo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CailungoCailungo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L12L12L11D11D12L13L04L11D01LA·SAN22/02H·DOM01/03A·TRE08/03H·FIO15/03A·COS21/03H·PEN07/04A·TRE11/04H·VIR19/04A·SAN25/04H·DOM28/08
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.471.430.381.310.571.57
vs Stronger (23)0.431.480.381.380.501.60
vs Similar (7)0.571.290.331.000.751.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.7%-------
Under 6.598.9%-------
Away under 3.5 goals98.9%-------
Under 5.596.7%-------
Away under 2.5 goals94.5%-------
Home under 3.5 goals93.3%-------
Home +2 handicap93.2%-------
Under 4.590.9%-------
Home under 2.5 goals80.7%-------
Home or Draw80.0%-------
Home +1 handicap80.0%-------
Away under 1.5 goals79.0%-------
Under 3.578.7%-------
Home over 0.5 goals77.9%-------
Away +2 handicap72.9%-------
Home or Away71.5%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Pennarossa and Cailungo have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Pennarossa and Cailungo have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Pennarossa and Cailungo have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Pennarossa and Cailungo have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
PEN wins
1
Draws
4
CAI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Pennarossa vs Cailungo · H/A from PEN
DateH/AGameScore
07/04/26ACailungo Vs PEN1-2
07/12/25HPEN Vs Cailungo2-0
18/04/25ACailungo Vs PEN7-0
22/12/24HPEN Vs Cailungo0-4
09/03/24HPEN Vs Cailungo0-2
26/11/23ACailungo Vs PEN0-0
05/03/23HPEN Vs Cailungo3-0
22/10/22ACailungo Vs PEN2-1

PennarossaPennarossa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26ATre Fiori Vs PEN5-2
29/04/26ACosmos Vs PEN3-0
26/04/26ATre Fiori Vs PEN1-1
18/04/26HPEN Vs Juvenes / Dogana0-0
12/04/26ACosmos Vs PEN0-1
07/04/26ACailungo Vs PEN1-2
21/03/26HPEN Vs Murata2-0
14/03/26ALa Fiorita Vs PEN5-0
07/03/26HPEN Vs Libertas0-1
01/03/26ASan Marino Academy Vs PEN1-1

CailungoCailungo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HCAI Vs Domagnano1-2
25/04/26ASan Marino Academy Vs CAI1-1
19/04/26HCAI Vs Virtus1-6
11/04/26ATre Penne Vs CAI6-1
07/04/26HCAI Vs Pennarossa1-2
21/03/26ACosmos Vs CAI2-1
15/03/26HCAI Vs Fiorentino1-3
08/03/26ATre Fiori Vs CAI3-2
01/03/26HCAI Vs Domagnano1-2
22/02/26ASan Giovanni Vs CAI2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Pennarossa
Pennarossa
San-Marino: Coppa Titano
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDLL0.88
HomeDLLWD1.00
AwayWWDLL0.78
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%22%19%
AVG goals3.062.783.30
Over 1.5 %84%74%93%
Over 2.5 %64%52%74%
Over 3.5 %34%39%30%
Scored1.001.040.96
Conceded2.061.742.33
BTTS52%48%56%
Clean Sheet16%30%4%
Corners---
Cards---
Cailungo
Cailungo
San-Marino: Coppa Titano
Recent: 0 Wins / 1 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDL0.64
HomeLLLLL0.52
AwayLLLLD0.78
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %14%11%17%
AVG goals2.963.042.87
Over 1.5 %84%85%83%
Over 2.5 %58%63%52%
Over 3.5 %28%30%26%
Scored1.001.040.96
Conceded1.962.001.91
BTTS54%59%48%
Clean Sheet16%11%22%
Corners5.00-5.00
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FolgoreFolgore13
100%
3.0
50+5
5.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0005.00.0
-
2Juvenes / DoganaJuvenes / Dogana13
100%
3.0
40+4
4.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0004.00.0
47%
3Tre FioriTre Fiori13
100%
3.0
52+3
7.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1015.02.0
64%
4FiorentinoFiorentino13
100%
3.0
20+2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.0
40%
5Tre PenneTre Penne13
100%
3.0
32+1
5.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0003.02.0
60%
6DomagnanoDomagnano13
100%
3.0
21+1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.0
-
7LibertasLibertas11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
49%
8CosmosCosmos11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
36%
9La FioritaLa Fiorita11
0%
1.0
00+0
0.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.00.0
-
10VirtusVirtus11
0%
1.0
00+0
0.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.00.0
-
11San GiovanniSan Giovanni10
0%
0.0
23-1
5.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.03.0
53%
12CailungoCailungo10
0%
0.0
12-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
13San Marino AcademySan Marino Academy10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
51%
14PennarossaPennarossa10
0%
0.0
25-3
7.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.05.0
-
15FaetanoFaetano10
0%
0.0
04-4
4.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.04.0
-
16MurataMurata10
0%
0.0
05-5
5.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.05.0
-
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →

← all matches