PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Pennarossa vs La Fiorita Result & Analysis

Date: 04/10/2024
Time: 19:15
Final 1-2
Pennarossa
Pennarossa
Vs
7%
15%
78%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
La Fiorita
La Fiorita
San-Marino: Campionato
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Pennarossa win✗ Miss
7.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
15.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita win✓ Hit
77.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

PennarossaPennarossa

Last 10 – goals for & against
90-926L43W09L24L20W03L03L00D12L04LA·COS12/03H·FAE17/03A·SAN06/04H·FOL13/04A·LIB21/04A·MUR31/08H·FOL14/09A·TRE22/09A·FAE25/09A·COS28/09
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
3.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.603.230.773.230.473.24
vs Stronger (17)0.593.530.713.710.503.40
vs Similar (13)0.622.850.832.670.433.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (La Fiorita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

La FioritaLa Fiorita

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-710W20W01L10W16L04L11D42W71W21WA·MUR11/05H·COS17/05H·FC 11/07A·FC 18/07A·BAŞ25/07H·BAŞ01/08A·TRE01/09H·CAI13/09H·FAE22/09A·TRE28/09
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.130.932.410.941.770.92
vs Stronger (2)0.505.000.004.001.006.00
vs Similar (9)1.220.781.200.801.250.75
vs Weaker (19)2.740.583.180.732.120.38
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%120%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.5%
Under 1.5
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.3%
Under 2.5
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.3%
Under 3.5
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.1%
No
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
12.2%
0-3
10.7%
1-2 ✓
8.7%
0-1
8.5%
1-3
7.7%
1-1
7.2%
0-4
7.1%
1-4
5.1%
Pennarossa goals ↓
La Fiorita goals →
01234
04.1%8.5%12%11%7.1%
11.8%7.2%8.7%7.7%5.1%
20.9%2.4%3.1%2.7%1.8%
30.2%0.6%0.7%0.7%0.4%
40.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pennarossa goals (down), columns = La Fiorita goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Virtus
2.57
La Fiorita
2.40
Tre Fiori
1.89
Folgore
1.69
Cosmos
1.69
Tre Penne
1.56
San Giovanni
1.54
Fiorentino
1.39
Murata
1.26
Faetano
1.03
Juvenes / Dogana
1.00
Domagnano
0.97
Libertas
0.87
Cailungo
0.77
Pennarossa
0.57
San Marino Academy
0.53
Pennarossa is 1.83 points worse than La Fiorita in terms of average points per game (0.57 vs 2.40).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
La Fiorita
2.26
Virtus
2.20
Tre Fiori
1.97
Cosmos
1.91
San Giovanni
1.83
Tre Penne
1.53
Folgore
1.31
Cailungo
1.17
Murata
1.06
Fiorentino
1.06
Faetano
1.03
San Marino Academy
1.00
Domagnano
0.97
Libertas
0.97
Pennarossa
0.87
Juvenes / Dogana
0.81
Pennarossa is 1.39 goals worse than La Fiorita in terms of goals scored per game (0.87 vs 2.26).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
La Fiorita
0.57
Virtus
0.60
Tre Fiori
0.91
Folgore
1.03
Tre Penne
1.09
Murata
1.10
Cosmos
1.11
Juvenes / Dogana
1.16
Fiorentino
1.21
San Giovanni
1.29
Domagnano
1.47
Faetano
2.00
Libertas
2.00
Cailungo
2.20
San Marino Academy
2.27
Pennarossa
2.53
Pennarossa is 1.96 goals worse than La Fiorita in terms of goals conceded per game (2.53 vs 0.57).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

PennarossaPennarossa

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

La FioritaLa Fiorita

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

PennarossaPennarossa

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (31)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (19)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (La Fiorita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

La FioritaLa Fiorita

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.08.08.00.20.20.2---
vs Stronger (2)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (18)8.08.08.00.50.50.5---
vs Weaker (30)---0.00.00.0---
% over line0%0%0%4%4%4%---
% under line100%100%100%96%96%96%---
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Cosmos
10.0
Tre Fiori
9.0
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Penne
7.2

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
7.2
La Fiorita
4.5
Cosmos
4.5
Tre Penne
3.5

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Tre Penne
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PennarossaPennarossa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L12L03L11D10W01L01L00D00D01LA·COS12/03H·FAE17/03A·SAN06/04H·FOL13/04A·LIB21/04A·MUR31/08H·FOL14/09A·TRE22/09A·FAE25/09A·COS28/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.301.570.381.850.241.35
vs Stronger (17)0.411.710.571.860.301.60
vs Similar (13)0.151.380.171.830.141.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (La Fiorita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

La FioritaLa Fiorita

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D01L00D04L03L11D12L31W21WA·MUR11/05H·COS17/05H·FC 11/07A·FC 18/07A·BAŞ25/07H·BAŞ01/08A·TRE01/09H·CAI13/09H·FAE22/09A·TRE28/09
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.601.180.651.080.54
vs Stronger (2)0.003.500.003.000.004.00
vs Similar (9)0.670.440.600.400.750.50
vs Weaker (19)1.470.371.550.551.380.12
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PennarossaPennarossa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-622D31W06L13L10W02L02L00D12L03LA·COS12/03H·FAE17/03A·SAN06/04H·FOL13/04A·LIB21/04A·MUR31/08H·FOL14/09A·TRE22/09A·FAE25/09A·COS28/09
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.301.670.381.380.241.88
vs Stronger (17)0.181.820.141.860.201.80
vs Similar (13)0.461.460.670.830.292.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (La Fiorita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

La FioritaLa Fiorita

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D20W00D10W12L01L00D30W40W00DA·MUR11/05H·COS17/05H·FC 11/07A·FC 18/07A·BAŞ25/07H·BAŞ01/08A·TRE01/09H·CAI13/09H·FAE22/09A·TRE28/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.331.240.290.690.38
vs Stronger (2)0.501.500.001.001.002.00
vs Similar (9)0.560.330.600.400.500.25
vs Weaker (19)1.260.211.640.180.750.25
Clean sheet %70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.5%-------✓ Hit
Away win77.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Pennarossa and La Fiorita have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Pennarossa and La Fiorita have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Pennarossa and La Fiorita have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Pennarossa and La Fiorita have a similar defence value (both €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
PEN wins
0
Draws
4
LF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Pennarossa vs La Fiorita · H/A from PEN
DateH/AGameScore
02/03/24ALa Fiorita Vs PEN3-0
11/11/23HPEN Vs La Fiorita0-3
18/03/23ALa Fiorita Vs PEN2-0
26/11/22HPEN Vs La Fiorita1-2

PennarossaPennarossa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/09/24ACosmos Vs PEN4-0
25/09/24AFaetano Vs PEN2-1
22/09/24ATre Penne Vs PEN0-0
14/09/24HPEN Vs Folgore0-3
31/08/24AMurata Vs PEN3-0
21/04/24ALibertas Vs PEN0-2
13/04/24HPEN Vs Folgore2-4
06/04/24ASan Giovanni Vs PEN9-0
17/03/24HPEN Vs Faetano4-3
12/03/24ACosmos Vs PEN6-2

La FioritaLa Fiorita

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/09/24ATre Fiori Vs LF1-2
22/09/24HLF Vs Faetano7-1
13/09/24HLF Vs Cailungo4-2
01/09/24ATre Penne Vs LF1-1
01/08/24HLF Vs Başakşehir0-4
25/07/24ABaşakşehir Vs LF6-1
18/07/24AFC Isloch Minsk R. Vs LF0-1
11/07/24HLF Vs FC Isloch Minsk R.0-1
17/05/24HLF Vs Cosmos2-0
11/05/24AMurata Vs LF0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Pennarossa
Pennarossa
San-Marino: Campionato
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLL0.44
HomeLLWLL0.26
AwayWLDLL0.59
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %12%9%15%
AVG goals3.543.873.26
Over 1.5 %84%91%78%
Over 2.5 %68%83%56%
Over 3.5 %42%48%37%
Scored0.700.780.63
Conceded2.843.092.63
BTTS34%43%26%
Clean Sheet14%4%22%
Corners---
Cards---
La Fiorita
La Fiorita
San-Marino: Campionato
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWW2.22
HomeWLLWW2.44
AwayWWLDW2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %70%80%60%
AVG goals2.863.082.64
Over 1.5 %74%76%72%
Over 2.5 %56%56%56%
Over 3.5 %26%36%16%
Scored2.022.241.80
Conceded0.840.840.84
BTTS46%44%48%
Clean Sheet44%44%44%
Corners8.008.008.00
Cards4.504.005.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1La FioritaLa Fiorita3584
71%
2.4
7920+59
2.8
86%
60%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.30.6
-
2VirtusVirtus3077
80%
2.6
6618+48
2.8
87%
43%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.20.6
-
3Tre FioriTre Fiori3566
57%
1.9
6932+37
2.9
83%
57%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1012.00.9
-
4CosmosCosmos3559
46%
1.7
6739+28
3.0
83%
60%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.1
-
5San GiovanniSan Giovanni3554
40%
1.5
6445+19
3.1
91%
57%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.3
-
6FolgoreFolgore3254
47%
1.7
4233+9
2.3
72%
38%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.0
-
7Tre PenneTre Penne3250
38%
1.6
4935+14
2.6
81%
41%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.1
-
8FiorentinoFiorentino3346
39%
1.4
3540-5
2.3
70%
45%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
9MurataMurata3139
35%
1.3
3334-1
2.2
52%
35%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.1
-
10FaetanoFaetano3334
30%
1.0
3466-32
3.0
79%
52%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
11Juvenes / DoganaJuvenes / Dogana3131
26%
1.0
2536-11
2.0
52%
32%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.81.2
-
12DomagnanoDomagnano3029
20%
1.0
2944-15
2.4
70%
50%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.5
-
13LibertasLibertas3026
20%
0.9
2960-31
3.0
77%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
14CailungoCailungo3023
20%
0.8
3566-31
3.4
80%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.2
-
15PennarossaPennarossa3017
10%
0.6
2676-50
3.4
87%
73%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.5
-
16San Marino AcademySan Marino Academy3016
13%
0.5
3068-38
3.3
87%
70%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.3
-
San-Marino: Campionato 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →

← all matches