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Pennarossa vs Libertas Result & Analysis

Date: 08/03/2025
Time: 14:00
Final 1-1
Pennarossa
Pennarossa
Vs
28%
25%
47%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Libertas
Libertas
San-Marino: Campionato
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Pennarossa win✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Libertas win✗ Miss
47.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

PennarossaPennarossa

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L12L04L22D00D23L03L12L10W22DH·CAI22/12A·VIR12/01H·MUR19/01A·FOL22/01H·TRE26/01H·COS01/02A·LA 08/02A·FAE15/02H·FIO23/02A·SAN02/03
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.932.670.932.470.932.87
vs Stronger (16)0.812.620.892.330.713.00
vs Similar (14)1.072.711.002.671.122.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Libertas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LibertasLibertas

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-601L22D22D01L04L31W01L02L06L24LH·FOL21/12A·CAI11/01A·COS18/01H·JUV21/01A·TRE25/01H·SAN01/02A·MUR08/02H·TRE16/02A·LA 22/02H·FAE02/03
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.902.200.932.000.872.40
vs Stronger (15)0.732.470.622.120.862.86
vs Similar (14)1.001.931.291.860.712.00
vs Weaker (1)2.002.00--2.002.00
Clean sheet %10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.6%
Under 1.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
61.5%
Under 2.5
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.2%
Under 3.5
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.2%
No
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.3%
1-2
9.4%
2-1
7.0%
0-2
6.9%
0-1
6.6%
2-2
6.4%
1-3
5.7%
0-0
5.2%
Pennarossa goals ↓
Libertas goals →
01234
05.2%6.6%6.9%4.2%1.9%
14.6%11%9.4%5.7%2.6%
23.8%7.0%6.4%3.9%1.8%
31.7%3.2%2.9%1.7%0.8%
40.6%1.1%1.0%0.6%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pennarossa goals (down), columns = Libertas goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Virtus
2.57
La Fiorita
2.40
Tre Fiori
1.89
Folgore
1.69
Cosmos
1.69
Tre Penne
1.56
San Giovanni
1.54
Fiorentino
1.39
Murata
1.26
Faetano
1.03
Juvenes / Dogana
1.00
Domagnano
0.97
Libertas
0.87
Cailungo
0.77
Pennarossa
0.57
San Marino Academy
0.53
Pennarossa is 0.30 points worse than Libertas in terms of average points per game (0.57 vs 0.87).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
La Fiorita
2.26
Virtus
2.20
Tre Fiori
1.97
Cosmos
1.91
San Giovanni
1.83
Tre Penne
1.53
Folgore
1.31
Cailungo
1.17
Murata
1.06
Fiorentino
1.06
Faetano
1.03
San Marino Academy
1.00
Domagnano
0.97
Libertas
0.97
Pennarossa
0.87
Juvenes / Dogana
0.81
Pennarossa is 0.10 goals worse than Libertas in terms of goals scored per game (0.87 vs 0.97).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
La Fiorita
0.57
Virtus
0.60
Tre Fiori
0.91
Folgore
1.03
Tre Penne
1.09
Murata
1.10
Cosmos
1.11
Juvenes / Dogana
1.16
Fiorentino
1.21
San Giovanni
1.29
Domagnano
1.47
Faetano
2.00
Libertas
2.00
Cailungo
2.20
San Marino Academy
2.27
Pennarossa
2.53
Pennarossa is 0.53 goals worse than Libertas in terms of goals conceded per game (2.53 vs 2.00).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

PennarossaPennarossa

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

LibertasLibertas

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

PennarossaPennarossa

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (28)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (22)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Libertas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LibertasLibertas

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (22)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (25)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (3)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Cosmos
10.0
Tre Fiori
9.0
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Penne
7.2

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
7.2
La Fiorita
4.5
Cosmos
4.5
Tre Penne
3.5

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Tre Penne
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PennarossaPennarossa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L02L02L00D01L02L01L00D00DH·CAI22/12A·VIR12/01H·MUR19/01A·FOL22/01H·TRE26/01H·COS01/02A·LA 08/02A·FAE15/02H·FIO23/02A·SAN02/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.171.130.270.930.071.33
vs Stronger (16)0.121.190.220.670.001.86
vs Similar (14)0.211.070.331.330.120.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Libertas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LibertasLibertas

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D01L01L00D01L10W01L01L01L01LH·FOL21/12A·CAI11/01A·COS18/01H·JUV21/01A·TRE25/01H·SAN01/02A·MUR08/02H·TRE16/02A·LA 22/02H·FAE02/03
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.270.700.270.600.270.80
vs Stronger (15)0.130.800.120.750.140.86
vs Similar (14)0.430.570.430.430.430.71
vs Weaker (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PennarossaPennarossa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L10W02L20W00D22D01L11D10W22DH·CAI22/12A·VIR12/01H·MUR19/01A·FOL22/01H·TRE26/01H·COS01/02A·LA 08/02A·FAE15/02H·FIO23/02A·SAN02/03
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.530.671.530.871.53
vs Stronger (16)0.691.440.671.670.711.14
vs Similar (14)0.861.640.671.331.001.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Libertas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LibertasLibertas

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L21W21W01L03L21W00D01L05L23LH·FOL21/12A·CAI11/01A·COS18/01H·JUV21/01A·TRE25/01H·SAN01/02A·MUR08/02H·TRE16/02A·LA 22/02H·FAE02/03
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.500.671.400.601.60
vs Stronger (15)0.601.670.501.380.712.00
vs Similar (14)0.571.360.861.430.291.29
vs Weaker (1)2.001.00--2.001.00
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Pennarossa and Libertas have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Pennarossa and Libertas have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Pennarossa and Libertas have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Pennarossa and Libertas have a similar defence value (both €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
1
PEN wins
2
Draws
2
LIB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Pennarossa vs Libertas · H/A from PEN
DateH/AGameScore
09/11/24ALibertas Vs PEN2-2
21/04/24ALibertas Vs PEN0-2
13/01/24HPEN Vs Libertas1-4
11/04/23HPEN Vs Libertas0-7
17/12/22ALibertas Vs PEN3-3

PennarossaPennarossa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/03/25ASan Giovanni Vs PEN2-2
23/02/25HPEN Vs Fiorentino1-0
15/02/25AFaetano Vs PEN2-1
08/02/25ALa Fiorita Vs PEN3-0
01/02/25HPEN Vs Cosmos2-3
26/01/25HPEN Vs Tre Penne0-0
22/01/25AFolgore Vs PEN2-2
19/01/25HPEN Vs Murata0-4
12/01/25AVirtus Vs PEN2-1
22/12/24HPEN Vs Cailungo0-4

LibertasLibertas

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/03/25HLIB Vs Faetano2-4
22/02/25ALa Fiorita Vs LIB6-0
16/02/25HLIB Vs Tre Penne0-2
08/02/25AMurata Vs LIB1-0
01/02/25HLIB Vs San Marino Academy3-1
25/01/25ATre Fiori Vs LIB4-0
21/01/25HLIB Vs Juvenes / Dogana0-1
18/01/25ACosmos Vs LIB2-2
11/01/25ACailungo Vs LIB2-2
21/12/24HLIB Vs Folgore0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Pennarossa
Pennarossa
San-Marino: Campionato
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWD0.42
HomeLLDLW0.48
AwayLDLLD0.36
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %8%12%4%
AVG goals3.563.483.64
Over 1.5 %86%84%88%
Over 2.5 %74%68%80%
Over 3.5 %46%44%48%
Scored0.700.720.68
Conceded2.862.762.96
BTTS40%40%40%
Clean Sheet16%16%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Libertas
Libertas
San-Marino: Campionato
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLL0.74
HomeLLWLL0.76
AwayDDLLL0.72
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%20%16%
AVG goals2.942.803.08
Over 1.5 %78%80%76%
Over 2.5 %56%56%56%
Over 3.5 %36%36%36%
Scored0.960.881.04
Conceded1.981.922.04
BTTS56%52%60%
Clean Sheet10%8%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1La FioritaLa Fiorita3584
71%
2.4
7920+59
2.8
86%
60%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.30.6
-
2VirtusVirtus3077
80%
2.6
6618+48
2.8
87%
43%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.20.6
-
3Tre FioriTre Fiori3566
57%
1.9
6932+37
2.9
83%
57%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1012.00.9
-
4CosmosCosmos3559
46%
1.7
6739+28
3.0
83%
60%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.1
-
5San GiovanniSan Giovanni3554
40%
1.5
6445+19
3.1
91%
57%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.3
-
6FolgoreFolgore3254
47%
1.7
4233+9
2.3
72%
38%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.0
-
7Tre PenneTre Penne3250
38%
1.6
4935+14
2.6
81%
41%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.1
-
8FiorentinoFiorentino3346
39%
1.4
3540-5
2.3
70%
45%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
9MurataMurata3139
35%
1.3
3334-1
2.2
52%
35%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.1
-
10FaetanoFaetano3334
30%
1.0
3466-32
3.0
79%
52%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
11Juvenes / DoganaJuvenes / Dogana3131
26%
1.0
2536-11
2.0
52%
32%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.81.2
-
12DomagnanoDomagnano3029
20%
1.0
2944-15
2.4
70%
50%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.5
-
13LibertasLibertas3026
20%
0.9
2960-31
3.0
77%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
14CailungoCailungo3023
20%
0.8
3566-31
3.4
80%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.2
-
15PennarossaPennarossa3017
10%
0.6
2676-50
3.4
87%
73%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.5
-
16San Marino AcademySan Marino Academy3016
13%
0.5
3068-38
3.3
87%
70%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.3
-
San-Marino: Campionato 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →

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