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Pennarossa vs Murata Result & Analysis

Date: 24/02/2024
Time: 14:00
Final 0-3
Pennarossa
Pennarossa
Vs
13%
20%
67%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Murata
Murata
San-Marino: Campionato
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Pennarossa win✗ Miss
12.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Murata win✓ Hit
66.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

PennarossaPennarossa

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-803L08L14L04L14L01L03L13L05L00DH·SAN16/12A·FOL07/01H·LIB13/01A·FIO21/01H·VIR24/01H·SAN28/01A·TRE03/02A·JUV11/02H·TRE17/02A·DOM20/02
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
3.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.532.930.473.270.602.60
vs Stronger (21)0.712.860.603.200.822.55
vs Similar (9)0.113.110.203.400.002.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Murata) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MurataMurata

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L20W12L00D10W10W01L12L31W02LA·COS16/12H·SAN06/01A·FIO13/01A·FAE20/01H·LIB23/01A·DOM27/01H·SAN03/02H·LA 10/02A·CAI18/02H·TRE21/02
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.002.070.671.001.33
vs Stronger (11)0.551.820.331.330.622.00
vs Similar (19)2.110.532.500.501.430.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%012%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.9%
Under 1.5
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.7%
Under 2.5
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.4%
Under 3.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.9%
No
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
10.9%
1-2
9.8%
1-1
9.6%
0-1
8.8%
0-3 ✓
8.1%
1-3
7.3%
0-0
5.2%
0-4
4.5%
Pennarossa goals ↓
Murata goals →
01234
05.2%8.8%11%8.1%4.5%
13.0%9.6%9.8%7.3%4.1%
21.8%3.9%4.4%3.3%1.8%
30.5%1.2%1.3%1.0%0.6%
40.1%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pennarossa goals (down), columns = Murata goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Virtus
2.63
La Fiorita
2.49
Tre Penne
1.97
Murata
1.91
Cosmos
1.86
Tre Fiori
1.81
Juvenes / Dogana
1.55
San Giovanni
1.50
Folgore
1.30
Fiorentino
1.23
Domagnano
1.13
Faetano
0.87
Libertas
0.77
San Marino Academy
0.73
Cailungo
0.47
Pennarossa
0.27
Pennarossa is 1.65 points worse than Murata in terms of average points per game (0.27 vs 1.91).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Cosmos
2.37
Tre Penne
2.37
La Fiorita
2.17
Virtus
2.03
Tre Fiori
1.78
San Giovanni
1.78
Murata
1.77
Juvenes / Dogana
1.55
Faetano
1.47
Folgore
1.39
Fiorentino
1.29
San Marino Academy
1.07
Libertas
1.07
Domagnano
1.06
Pennarossa
0.60
Cailungo
0.50
Pennarossa is 1.17 goals worse than Murata in terms of goals scored per game (0.60 vs 1.77).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
La Fiorita
0.60
Virtus
0.67
Murata
0.74
Cosmos
0.94
Tre Fiori
1.00
Tre Penne
1.03
Folgore
1.15
San Giovanni
1.44
Domagnano
1.45
Juvenes / Dogana
1.64
Fiorentino
1.84
Libertas
1.87
San Marino Academy
2.47
Cailungo
2.57
Faetano
2.63
Pennarossa
3.20
Pennarossa is 2.46 goals worse than Murata in terms of goals conceded per game (3.20 vs 0.74).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

PennarossaPennarossa

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

MurataMurata

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

PennarossaPennarossa

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (33)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (17)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Murata) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MurataMurata

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (19)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (31)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Cosmos
10.0
Tre Fiori
9.0
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Penne
7.2

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
7.2
La Fiorita
4.5
Cosmos
4.5
Tre Penne
3.5

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Tre Penne
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PennarossaPennarossa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L02L03L04L11D01L01L11D01L00DH·SAN16/12A·FOL07/01H·LIB13/01A·FIO21/01H·VIR24/01H·SAN28/01A·TRE03/02A·JUV11/02H·TRE17/02A·DOM20/02
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.371.430.271.670.471.20
vs Stronger (21)0.521.380.401.500.641.27
vs Similar (9)0.001.560.002.000.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Murata) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MurataMurata

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W12L00D10W00D00D01L20W00DA·COS16/12H·SAN06/01A·FIO13/01A·FAE20/01H·LIB23/01A·DOM27/01H·SAN03/02H·LA 10/02A·CAI18/02H·TRE21/02
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.401.070.200.600.60
vs Stronger (11)0.270.640.000.330.380.75
vs Similar (19)1.160.261.330.170.860.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PennarossaPennarossa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-600D06L11D00D03L00D02L02L04L00DH·SAN16/12A·FOL07/01H·LIB13/01A·FIO21/01H·VIR24/01H·SAN28/01A·TRE03/02A·JUV11/02H·TRE17/02A·DOM20/02
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.171.500.201.600.131.40
vs Stronger (21)0.191.480.201.700.181.27
vs Similar (9)0.111.560.201.400.001.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Murata) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MurataMurata

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W00D00D00D10W01L11D11D02LA·COS16/12H·SAN06/01A·FIO13/01A·FAE20/01H·LIB23/01A·DOM27/01H·SAN03/02H·LA 10/02A·CAI18/02H·TRE21/02
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.601.000.470.400.73
vs Stronger (11)0.271.180.331.000.251.25
vs Similar (19)0.950.261.170.330.570.14
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Pennarossa and Murata have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Pennarossa and Murata have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Pennarossa and Murata have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Pennarossa and Murata have a similar defence value (both €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
PEN wins
0
Draws
2
MUR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Pennarossa vs Murata · H/A from PEN
DateH/AGameScore
05/11/23AMurata Vs PEN5-0
28/01/23HPEN Vs Murata2-3
11/09/22AMurata Vs PEN2-4

PennarossaPennarossa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/02/24ADomagnano Vs PEN0-0
17/02/24HPEN Vs Tre Penne0-5
11/02/24AJuvenes / Dogana Vs PEN3-1
03/02/24ATre Fiori Vs PEN3-0
28/01/24HPEN Vs San Marino Academy0-1
24/01/24HPEN Vs Virtus1-4
21/01/24AFiorentino Vs PEN4-0
13/01/24HPEN Vs Libertas1-4
07/01/24AFolgore Vs PEN8-0
16/12/23HPEN Vs San Giovanni0-3

MurataMurata

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/02/24HMUR Vs Tre Penne0-2
18/02/24ACailungo Vs MUR1-3
10/02/24HMUR Vs La Fiorita1-2
03/02/24HMUR Vs San Giovanni0-1
27/01/24ADomagnano Vs MUR0-1
23/01/24HMUR Vs Libertas1-0
20/01/24AFaetano Vs MUR0-0
13/01/24AFiorentino Vs MUR2-1
06/01/24HMUR Vs San Marino Academy2-0
16/12/23ACosmos Vs MUR2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Pennarossa
Pennarossa
San-Marino: Campionato
Recent: 0 Wins / 1 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLD0.54
HomeLLLLL0.44
AwayLLLLD0.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %14%12%16%
AVG goals3.403.643.16
Over 1.5 %82%88%76%
Over 2.5 %68%80%56%
Over 3.5 %46%52%40%
Scored0.941.000.88
Conceded2.462.642.28
BTTS44%48%40%
Clean Sheet14%12%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Murata
Murata
San-Marino: Campionato
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWL1.36
HomeWWLLL1.35
AwayLLDWW1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%42%42%
AVG goals2.983.122.83
Over 1.5 %76%77%75%
Over 2.5 %56%62%50%
Over 3.5 %36%38%33%
Scored1.521.731.29
Conceded1.461.381.54
BTTS46%50%42%
Clean Sheet30%27%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1La FioritaLa Fiorita3587
80%
2.5
7621+55
2.8
74%
57%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.20.6
-
2VirtusVirtus3079
87%
2.6
6120+41
2.7
70%
57%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.00.7
-
3Tre PenneTre Penne3569
60%
2.0
8336+47
3.4
89%
69%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.41.0
-
4MurataMurata3567
60%
1.9
6226+36
2.5
63%
49%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.7
-
5CosmosCosmos3565
54%
1.9
8333+50
3.3
77%
63%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.40.9
-
6Tre FioriTre Fiori3258
53%
1.8
5732+25
2.8
72%
62%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.81.0
-
7Juvenes / DoganaJuvenes / Dogana3351
48%
1.5
5154-3
3.2
76%
70%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.6
-
8San GiovanniSan Giovanni3248
47%
1.5
5746+11
3.2
88%
72%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
9FolgoreFolgore3343
36%
1.3
4638+8
2.5
70%
42%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.2
-
10FiorentinoFiorentino3138
35%
1.2
4057-17
3.1
81%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.8
-
11DomagnanoDomagnano3135
29%
1.1
3345-12
2.5
68%
39%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.5
-
12FaetanoFaetano3026
27%
0.9
4479-35
4.1
90%
77%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.6
-
13LibertasLibertas3023
20%
0.8
3256-24
2.9
80%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
14San Marino AcademySan Marino Academy3022
20%
0.7
3274-42
3.5
93%
73%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.5
-
15CailungoCailungo3014
13%
0.5
1577-62
3.1
80%
63%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.6
-
16PennarossaPennarossa308
7%
0.3
1896-78
3.8
83%
73%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.63.2
-
San-Marino: Campionato 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →

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