Pennarossa are tipped to win as the model favours a home victory with a 53% chance, while a draw sits at 25% and an away win at 22%. The expected total goals is 3.0, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, with a 24% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.7% chance. Pennarossa, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded. Murata, on the road, average 1.11 goals scored but concede 2.67 against similar teams. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 99.1%, Under 7.5 at 98.8%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.8%, Over 21.5 fouls at 97.4%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.1%, Under 6.5 at 96.7%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.0%, and Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.9%. Pennarossa are coming off a defeat, while Murata end a five-match losing streak.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Pennarossa win
52.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Murata win
22.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Pennarossa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.83
1.15
1.38
0.94
2.18
vs Stronger (18)
0.72
2.39
0.86
2.14
0.64
2.55
vs Similar (12)
1.50
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.50
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Murata) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Murata
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
3.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
2.83
0.36
2.93
1.00
2.75
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
2.85
0.00
2.83
0.86
2.86
vs Similar (17)
0.88
2.82
0.62
3.00
1.11
2.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-25pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.0%
Under 1.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.5%
Under 2.5
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.1%
Under 3.5
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.4%
No
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.6%
1-0
8.2%
0-0
6.1%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
6.0%
2-2
5.6%
Pennarossa goals ↓
Murata goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
4.7%
3.3%
1.2%
0.4%
1
8.2%
12%
6.1%
2.3%
0.7%
2
8.6%
9.8%
5.6%
2.1%
0.6%
3
5.3%
6.0%
3.4%
1.3%
0.4%
4
2.5%
2.8%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pennarossa goals (down), columns = Murata goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.43
Virtus
2.34
Tre Penne
2.17
La Fiorita
1.97
Folgore
1.88
Domagnano
1.57
Fiorentino
1.53
Cosmos
1.42
Juvenes / Dogana
1.18
Libertas
1.16
San Giovanni
1.03
Pennarossa
1.03
Faetano
0.73
San Marino Academy
0.53
Cailungo
0.37
Murata
0.23
Pennarossa is 0.80 points better than Murata in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 0.23).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Virtus
2.37
Folgore
2.16
Tre Penne
2.14
Tre Fiori
2.10
La Fiorita
2.00
Domagnano
1.89
Fiorentino
1.25
Juvenes / Dogana
1.12
Libertas
1.06
Cosmos
1.00
Pennarossa
0.94
San Giovanni
0.80
San Marino Academy
0.77
Cailungo
0.77
Faetano
0.73
Murata
0.67
Pennarossa is 0.27 goals better than Murata in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 0.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tre Fiori
0.43
Tre Penne
0.60
Virtus
0.69
Cosmos
0.70
La Fiorita
0.89
Folgore
1.12
Juvenes / Dogana
1.24
Domagnano
1.26
Fiorentino
1.41
San Giovanni
1.43
Pennarossa
1.81
Faetano
1.83
San Marino Academy
2.00
Libertas
2.06
Cailungo
2.37
Murata
2.77
Pennarossa is 0.96 goals better than Murata in terms of goals conceded per game (1.81 vs 2.77).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Tre Fiori
64%
Tre Penne
60%
San Giovanni
53%
San Marino Academy
51%
Libertas
49%
Juvenes / Dogana
47%
Fiorentino
40%
Cosmos
36%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Pennarossa
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Murata
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Pennarossa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (32)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Murata) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Murata
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Libertas
12.0
San Marino Academy
12.0
Fiorentino
10.0
Cosmos
8.7
Tre Penne
7.8
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Fiori
7.7
Folgore
5.0
Cailungo
5.0
San Giovanni
4.0
Juvenes / Dogana
4.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
5.3
San Giovanni
5.0
Juvenes / Dogana
5.0
Cosmos
4.7
La Fiorita
4.5
Fiorentino
4.0
Tre Penne
3.6
Libertas
3.0
San Marino Academy
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fiorentino
34.0
San Giovanni
32.0
Juvenes / Dogana
32.0
Cosmos
30.0
Tre Penne
28.5
Tre Fiori
28.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
21.2%
Under 9.5
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
61.4%
Under 3.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
97.4%
Under 21.5
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Pennarossa or Draw
77.7%
Avg Implied -
53%
25%
22%
covers Pennarossa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa or Murata
75.1%
Avg Implied -
53%
25%
22%
covers Pennarossa + Murata
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Murata
47.1%
Avg Implied -
53%
25%
22%
covers Draw + Murata
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5
Over
84.3%
Under
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5
Over
55.2%
Under
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5
Over
28.3%
Under
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 3.5
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 0.5
Over
68.1%
Under
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 1.5
Over
31.6%
Under
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 2.5
Over
10.8%
Under
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 3.5
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Pennarossa, so a minus line means Pennarossa give that many goals of a start and Murata receive them. At -1, Pennarossa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Pennarossa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Pennarossa)
Pennarossa -2
14.2%
Draw -2
16.5%
Murata +2
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Pennarossa)
Pennarossa -1
30.7%
Draw -1
22.2%
Murata +1
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Pennarossa)
Pennarossa +1
77.7%
Draw +1
13.3%
Murata -1
9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Pennarossa)
Pennarossa +2
91.0%
Draw +2
6.3%
Murata -2
2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pennarossa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.77
0.54
0.62
0.29
0.88
vs Stronger (18)
0.22
0.94
0.43
0.86
0.09
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.50
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Murata) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Murata
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
1.40
0.21
1.64
0.31
1.19
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
1.38
0.00
1.33
0.43
1.43
vs Similar (17)
0.29
1.41
0.38
1.88
0.22
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.9%
Under 0.5
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.6%
Under 1.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.3%
Under 2.5
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
53.3%
Under
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.4%
Under
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.1%
Under
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pennarossa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.07
0.62
0.77
0.65
1.29
vs Stronger (18)
0.50
1.44
0.43
1.29
0.55
1.55
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.50
0.83
0.17
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Murata) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Murata
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.43
0.14
1.29
0.69
1.56
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
1.46
0.00
1.50
0.43
1.43
vs Similar (17)
0.59
1.41
0.25
1.12
0.89
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.5%
Under 0.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.8%
Under 1.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.4%
Under 2.5
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
61.3%
Under
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
25.0%
Under
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 0.5 2H
Over
45.1%
Under
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.6%
Under
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Over 19.5 fouls
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.0%
-
-
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Under 5.5 cards
74.5%
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Home under 2.5 goals
71.7%
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No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Pennarossa and Murata have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Pennarossa and Murata have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Pennarossa and Murata have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Pennarossa and Murata have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Folgore
Juvenes / Dogana
Tre Fiori
Fiorentino
Tre Penne
Domagnano
Libertas
Cosmos
La Fiorita
Virtus
San Giovanni
Cailungo
San Marino Academy
Faetano