Pennarossa’s attack, averaging four goals at home against stronger opposition, faces Tre Fiori’s modest away output of one goal against weaker teams, both sides having conceded nothing on average. The model projects a 55% chance of a home win, 23% for a draw and 22% for an away victory, with the home win being the single most likely result. An average of 3.3 goals is expected, centring on a total of three goals with a 22% probability. The most probable scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 10.5% chance, a figure that underscores the balanced nature of the contest. The recent form narrative is clear: Pennarossa, after two straight defeats, is looking to overturn a 2-5 loss, while Tre Fiori, buoyed by a win, seeks to repeat a 5-2 triumph. The model’s only selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 84.7% probability.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Pennarossa, the pre-match favourite with a 55% chance of triumph, fell to a 0-1 defeat. The model’s call was wrong, and the final score confirmed an away win. The predicted 3-goal total was not reached, and the suggested pick Over 1.5, with an 84.7% probability, missed. Pennarossa’s recent form, after two straight defeats, had been shaky, while Tre Fiori, coming off a win, showed resilience. The model had favoured a home win at 55%, but the reality was a narrow away victory, underscoring the unpredictability of the league.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Pennarossa win✗ Miss
55.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori win✓ Hit
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Pennarossa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.00
0.75
4.00
0.00
2.00
1.50
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
0.50
4.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (2)
4.00
1.00
4.00
0.00
4.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tre Fiori
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.56
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.75
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (5)
2.20
1.00
2.50
1.25
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
84.7%
Under 1.5
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.5%
Under 2.5
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.3%
Under 3.5
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.5%
No
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
7.9%
1-0
6.8%
3-1
6.6%
2-2
6.0%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
5.4%
Pennarossa goals ↓
Tre Fiori goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
3.7%
2.9%
1.2%
0.4%
1
6.8%
10%
5.9%
2.4%
0.7%
2
7.9%
9.7%
6.0%
2.5%
0.8%
3
5.4%
6.6%
4.1%
1.7%
0.5%
4
2.7%
3.4%
2.1%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pennarossa goals (down), columns = Tre Fiori goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Cosmos
2.48
Tre Penne
2.43
La Fiorita
2.12
Virtus
1.91
Tre Fiori
1.90
Libertas
1.55
Folgore
1.10
Murata
1.03
Juvenes / Dogana
1.03
Faetano
0.90
Domagnano
0.90
Pennarossa
0.89
San Giovanni
0.82
Fiorentino
0.82
Cailungo
0.64
Pennarossa is 1.01 points worse than Tre Fiori in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 1.90).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cosmos
2.30
Tre Penne
2.14
Virtus
1.76
Libertas
1.61
Tre Fiori
1.57
La Fiorita
1.48
Murata
1.41
Pennarossa
1.39
Juvenes / Dogana
1.39
Fiorentino
1.32
Domagnano
1.31
Faetano
1.19
Folgore
1.13
Cailungo
1.04
San Giovanni
1.00
Pennarossa is 0.17 goals worse than Tre Fiori in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cosmos
0.45
La Fiorita
0.61
Tre Penne
0.68
Tre Fiori
0.80
Virtus
0.91
Libertas
1.21
Folgore
1.70
Juvenes / Dogana
1.71
Domagnano
1.76
San Giovanni
1.93
Murata
2.00
Pennarossa
2.04
Fiorentino
2.07
Faetano
2.26
Cailungo
2.46
Pennarossa is 1.24 goals worse than Tre Fiori in terms of goals conceded per game (2.04 vs 0.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Pennarossa
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Tre Fiori
For 3.5 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.0 · Against 3.2 · Total 7.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Pennarossa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tre Fiori
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (9)
9.0
7.5
10.5
3.2
2.4
4.2
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
9.5
7.0
12.0
3.8
6.0
3.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (5)
8.5
8.0
9.0
2.8
1.5
8.0
-
-
-
% over line
25%
0%
50%
44%
40%
50%
-
-
-
% under line
75%
100%
50%
56%
60%
50%
-
-
-
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Tre Penne
11.0
Tre Fiori
9.0
La Fiorita
7.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
7.2
Tre Penne
5.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pennarossa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
75% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tre Fiori
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.44
0.40
0.80
0.25
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.80
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pennarossa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.25
0.25
2.50
0.00
2.00
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (2)
3.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
75% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tre Fiori
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.22
0.56
1.60
0.20
0.75
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
0.20
2.00
0.25
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
56% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Pennarossa and Tre Fiori have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Pennarossa and Tre Fiori have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Pennarossa and Tre Fiori have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Pennarossa and Tre Fiori have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Cosmos
La Fiorita
Tre Penne
Virtus
Libertas
Folgore
Juvenes / Dogana
Murata
Faetano
Domagnano
Fiorentino
San Giovanni
Cailungo