Pennarossa’s recent form - two straight defeats followed by a win - has left the team struggling at home, especially against a stronger opponent. Tre Fiori, on the other hand, has just secured a win away and has been scoring 1.64 goals per game while conceding only 1.09 against weaker sides, making them the clear favourite. The model therefore picks an away win with a 69% probability, while the home win and draw stand at 12% and 19% respectively. The expected total of 3.2 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 0-2 for Tre Fiori, with an 11% chance. Pennarossa averages 0.8 goals scored and 3.6 conceded at home against stronger teams, whereas Tre Fiori averages 1.64 scored and 1.09 conceded away against weaker opponents. The only suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 83.7% probability.
Results analysis
The win extends Tre Fiori’s recent run, with a 1-6 triumph over Pennarossa. The model’s favourite, an away win, was correct, as the final result matched the predicted outcome. The pre-match probability for the favourite was 69%. The model’s selection for Over 1.5 goals, at 83.7%, hit, as the match saw seven goals. All other facts are presented: the final score was 1-6, the actual result was an away win, and the model’s pick was indeed the favourite. The predictions aligned with the match, confirming the model’s accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Pennarossa win✗ Miss
11.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori win✓ Hit
68.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Pennarossa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
3.07
0.79
2.79
0.50
3.31
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
3.53
0.80
3.60
0.30
3.50
vs Similar (15)
0.80
2.60
0.78
2.33
0.83
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tre Fiori
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.00
1.81
1.00
1.57
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.29
1.00
1.25
1.25
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (23)
1.83
1.00
2.00
0.92
1.64
1.09
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.7%
Under 1.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.0%
Under 2.5
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.7%
Under 3.5
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.6%
No
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.0%
1-2
9.7%
1-1
9.2%
0-1
8.6%
0-3
8.5%
1-3
7.5%
0-0
4.9%
0-4
4.9%
Pennarossa goals ↓
Tre Fiori goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
8.6%
11%
8.5%
4.9%
1
2.8%
9.2%
9.7%
7.5%
4.3%
2
1.6%
3.7%
4.3%
3.3%
1.9%
3
0.5%
1.1%
1.3%
1.0%
0.6%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pennarossa goals (down), columns = Tre Fiori goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Virtus
2.57
La Fiorita
2.40
Tre Fiori
1.89
Folgore
1.69
Cosmos
1.69
Tre Penne
1.56
San Giovanni
1.54
Fiorentino
1.39
Murata
1.26
Faetano
1.03
Juvenes / Dogana
1.00
Domagnano
0.97
Libertas
0.87
Cailungo
0.77
Pennarossa
0.57
San Marino Academy
0.53
Pennarossa is 1.32 points worse than Tre Fiori in terms of average points per game (0.57 vs 1.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
La Fiorita
2.26
Virtus
2.20
Tre Fiori
1.97
Cosmos
1.91
San Giovanni
1.83
Tre Penne
1.53
Folgore
1.31
Cailungo
1.17
Murata
1.06
Fiorentino
1.06
Faetano
1.03
San Marino Academy
1.00
Domagnano
0.97
Libertas
0.97
Pennarossa
0.87
Juvenes / Dogana
0.81
Pennarossa is 1.10 goals worse than Tre Fiori in terms of goals scored per game (0.87 vs 1.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
La Fiorita
0.57
Virtus
0.60
Tre Fiori
0.91
Folgore
1.03
Tre Penne
1.09
Murata
1.10
Cosmos
1.11
Juvenes / Dogana
1.16
Fiorentino
1.21
San Giovanni
1.29
Domagnano
1.47
Faetano
2.00
Libertas
2.00
Cailungo
2.20
San Marino Academy
2.27
Pennarossa
2.53
Pennarossa is 1.62 goals worse than Tre Fiori in terms of goals conceded per game (2.53 vs 0.91).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Pennarossa
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Tre Fiori
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Pennarossa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (29)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tre Fiori
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (38)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Cosmos
10.0
Tre Fiori
9.0
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Penne
7.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
7.2
La Fiorita
4.5
Cosmos
4.5
Tre Penne
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Tre Penne
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pennarossa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
1.30
0.29
1.29
0.12
1.31
vs Stronger (15)
0.20
1.33
0.40
0.80
0.10
1.60
vs Similar (15)
0.20
1.27
0.22
1.56
0.17
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tre Fiori
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.33
0.88
0.38
1.00
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.57
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (23)
1.00
0.26
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.27
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pennarossa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.77
0.50
1.50
0.38
2.00
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
2.20
0.40
2.80
0.20
1.90
vs Similar (15)
0.60
1.33
0.56
0.78
0.67
2.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tre Fiori
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.67
0.94
0.62
0.57
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.57
0.43
0.75
0.50
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (23)
0.83
0.74
1.00
0.67
0.64
0.82
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Pennarossa and Tre Fiori have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Pennarossa and Tre Fiori have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Pennarossa and Tre Fiori have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Pennarossa and Tre Fiori have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
La Fiorita
Virtus
Cosmos
San Giovanni
Folgore
Tre Penne
Fiorentino
Murata
Faetano
Juvenes / Dogana
Domagnano
Libertas
Cailungo
San Marino Academy