This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tre Fiori
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.93
1.62
1.00
1.29
0.88
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (10)
0.60
1.10
0.33
2.00
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (18)
2.00
0.67
2.11
0.78
1.89
0.56
Clean sheet %
40% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.2%
Under 1.5
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.8%
Under 2.5
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.1%
Under 3.5
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
41.7%
No
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
14.7%
0-2
13.1%
1-1 â
12.1%
0-0
10.6%
1-2
9.1%
0-3
7.2%
1-0
5.5%
1-3
5.0%
Pennarossa goals ↓
Tre Fiori goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
15%
13%
7.2%
3.0%
1
5.5%
12%
9.1%
5.0%
2.1%
2
2.3%
3.8%
3.2%
1.7%
0.7%
3
0.5%
0.9%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pennarossa goals (down), columns = Tre Fiori goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Penne
2.50
Virtus
2.14
La Fiorita
2.00
Folgore
1.75
Juvenes / Dogana
1.50
Tre Fiori
1.43
San Giovanni
1.25
Faetano
1.00
Cosmos
0.50
Murata
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Cailungo
0.00
Fiorentino
0.00
Libertas
0.00
Pennarossa is 0.93 points worse than Tre Fiori in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 1.43).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tre Penne
2.33
Tre Fiori
1.57
Virtus
1.43
San Giovanni
1.00
La Fiorita
1.00
Cosmos
1.00
Faetano
0.75
Juvenes / Dogana
0.75
Folgore
0.75
Cailungo
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Murata
0.00
Fiorentino
0.00
Libertas
0.00
Pennarossa is 1.07 goals worse than Tre Fiori in terms of goals scored per game (0.50 vs 1.57).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
La Fiorita
0.00
Virtus
0.43
Tre Penne
0.50
Murata
0.50
Folgore
0.50
Tre Fiori
0.71
Juvenes / Dogana
1.00
Pennarossa
1.00
Domagnano
1.00
Cosmos
1.50
Fiorentino
1.50
San Giovanni
1.75
Faetano
1.75
Libertas
2.50
Cailungo
5.00
Pennarossa is 0.29 goals worse than Tre Fiori in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.71).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Pennarossa or Drawâ Hit
40.6%
Avg Implied -
14%
26%
59%
covers Pennarossa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa or Tre Fioriâ Miss
73.7%
Avg Implied -
14%
26%
59%
covers Pennarossa + Tre Fiori
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tre Fioriâ Hit
85.7%
Avg Implied -
14%
26%
59%
covers Draw + Tre Fiori
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
50.1%
Under
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
15.4%
Under
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.9%
Under
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
49.3%
Under
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
23.1%
Under
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âïļ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Pennarossa, so a minus line means Pennarossa give that many goals of a start and Tre Fiori receive them. At -1, Pennarossa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Pennarossa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Pennarossa)Actual: Tre Fiori
Pennarossa -2
0.8%
Draw -2
3.3%
Tre Fiori +2
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Pennarossa)Actual: Tre Fiori
Pennarossa -1
4.2%
Draw -1
10.1%
Tre Fiori +1
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Pennarossa)Actual: Pennarossa
Pennarossa +1
40.6%
Draw +1
25.7%
Tre Fiori -1
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Pennarossa)Actual: Pennarossa
Pennarossa +2
66.2%
Draw +2
18.9%
Tre Fiori -2
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pennarossa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.17
1.13
0.24
0.88
0.08
1.46
vs Stronger (18)
0.17
1.17
0.20
0.80
0.12
1.62
vs Similar (12)
0.17
1.08
0.29
1.00
0.00
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tre Fiori
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.37
0.92
0.31
0.59
0.41
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.70
0.00
1.00
0.43
0.57
vs Weaker (18)
1.06
0.06
1.33
0.11
0.78
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pennarossa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.37
0.53
1.53
0.92
1.15
vs Stronger (18)
0.72
1.22
0.70
1.60
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (12)
0.67
1.58
0.29
1.43
1.20
1.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tre Fiori
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.57
0.69
0.69
0.71
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.40
0.33
1.00
0.29
0.14
vs Weaker (18)
0.94
0.61
0.78
0.67
1.11
0.56
Clean sheet %
57% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 5.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away +2 handicap
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 4.5
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Draw or Away
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away +1 handicap
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home or Away
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Pennarossa and Tre Fiori have a similar squad value (both €0m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Pennarossa and Tre Fiori have a similar attack value (both €0m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Pennarossa and Tre Fiori have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Pennarossa and Tre Fiori have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Virtus
Tre Penne
La Fiorita
Folgore
Domagnano
Fiorentino
Cosmos
Juvenes / Dogana
Libertas
San Giovanni
Faetano
San Marino Academy
Cailungo
Murata