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Penybont vs Aberystwyth Town Result & Analysis

Date: 26/08/2024
Time: 13:30
Final 5-1
Penybont
Penybont
Vs
55%
27%
19%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Aberystwyth Town
Aberystwyth Town
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Penybont win✓ Hit
54.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aberystwyth Town win✗ Miss
18.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

PenybontPenybont

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-550W00D30W30W10W50W13L20W00D00DH·COL16/03A·BAR29/03A·ABE06/04A·PON13/04H·HAV21/04A·NEW11/05A·CAE18/05A·BRI11/08H·NEW16/08A·HAV23/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.131.001.081.881.18
vs Stronger (2)0.503.501.004.000.003.00
vs Similar (24)1.580.961.100.701.931.14
vs Weaker (4)1.501.000.501.502.500.50
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberystwyth Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D02L21W03L00D12L30W14L11D10WH·BAR02/03A·HAV15/03A·COL29/03H·PEN06/04A·PON09/04A·BAR13/04H·PON21/04A·NEW09/08H·GAP16/08H·BAR23/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.671.121.560.861.79
vs Stronger (21)1.051.521.171.670.891.33
vs Similar (9)0.892.001.001.250.802.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%222%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.3%
Under 1.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.7%
Under 2.5
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.1%
Under 3.5
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.5%
No
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
1-0
11.9%
2-0
10.9%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
9.0%
3-0
6.0%
0-1
5.8%
3-1
5.3%
Penybont goals ↓
Aberystwyth Town goals →
01234
09.0%5.8%3.0%0.9%0.2%
112%13%5.1%1.5%0.3%
211%9.6%4.2%1.2%0.3%
36.0%5.3%2.3%0.7%0.1%
42.5%2.2%1.0%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Penybont goals (down), columns = Aberystwyth Town goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
2.44
Penybont
2.00
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.64
Barry Town
1.58
Caernarfon Town
1.49
Cardiff MET
1.41
Flint Town United
1.31
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.31
Bala Town
1.12
Briton Ferry
1.00
Newtown AFC
0.81
Aberystwyth Town
0.66
Penybont is 1.34 points better than Aberystwyth Town in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.66).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
2.78
Penybont
1.75
Barry Town
1.73
Caernarfon Town
1.69
Flint Town United
1.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.47
Briton Ferry
1.44
Cardiff MET
1.29
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.27
Bala Town
1.15
Newtown AFC
1.12
Aberystwyth Town
0.88
Penybont is 0.88 goals better than Aberystwyth Town in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 0.88).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.82
The New Saints
0.97
Penybont
1.00
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.09
Bala Town
1.33
Cardiff MET
1.35
Caernarfon Town
1.60
Barry Town
1.70
Flint Town United
1.94
Briton Ferry
2.03
Newtown AFC
2.03
Aberystwyth Town
2.22
Penybont is 1.22 goals better than Aberystwyth Town in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.22).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PenybontPenybont

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D10W20W10W30W03L20W00D00DH·COL16/03A·BAR29/03A·ABE06/04A·PON13/04H·HAV21/04A·NEW11/05A·CAE18/05A·BRI11/08H·NEW16/08A·HAV23/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.500.380.380.940.59
vs Stronger (2)0.500.501.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (24)0.790.500.400.301.070.64
vs Weaker (4)0.250.500.001.000.500.00
Clean sheet %73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberystwyth Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-111D01L10W01L00D01L10W10W00D10WH·BAR02/03A·HAV15/03A·COL29/03H·PEN06/04A·PON09/04A·BAR13/04H·PON21/04A·NEW09/08H·GAP16/08H·BAR23/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.470.690.500.430.43
vs Stronger (21)0.570.480.670.500.440.44
vs Similar (9)0.560.440.750.500.400.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Penybont over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberystwyth Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberystwyth Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberystwyth Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PenybontPenybont

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W00D20W10W00D20W10W00D00D00DH·COL16/03A·BAR29/03A·ABE06/04A·PON13/04H·HAV21/04A·NEW11/05A·CAE18/05A·BRI11/08H·NEW16/08A·HAV23/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.630.620.690.940.59
vs Stronger (2)0.003.000.004.000.002.00
vs Similar (24)0.790.460.700.400.860.50
vs Weaker (4)1.250.500.500.502.000.50
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberystwyth Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D01L11D02L00D11D20W04L11D00DH·BAR02/03A·HAV15/03A·COL29/03H·PEN06/04A·PON09/04A·BAR13/04H·PON21/04A·NEW09/08H·GAP16/08H·BAR23/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.200.441.060.431.36
vs Stronger (21)0.481.050.501.170.440.89
vs Similar (9)0.331.560.250.750.402.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Penybont over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberystwyth Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberystwyth Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberystwyth Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.9%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.573.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
AT (2)
€0m
Penybont's squad is €1m more valuable than Aberystwyth Town's (€1m vs €0m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Penybont and Aberystwyth Town have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
Penybont and Aberystwyth Town have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Penybont and Aberystwyth Town have a similar defence value (both €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
4
PEN wins
1
Draws
1
AT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Penybont vs Aberystwyth Town · H/A from PEN
DateH/AGameScore
06/04/24AAberystwyth Town Vs PEN0-3
23/02/24HPEN Vs Aberystwyth Town1-1
27/10/23HPEN Vs Aberystwyth Town0-2
22/09/23AAberystwyth Town Vs PEN1-2
10/01/23AAberystwyth Town Vs PEN0-3
23/09/22HPEN Vs Aberystwyth Town3-1

PenybontPenybont

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/08/24AHaverfordwest County AFC Vs PEN0-0
16/08/24HPEN Vs Newtown AFC0-0
11/08/24ABriton Ferry Vs PEN0-2
18/05/24ACaernarfon Town Vs PEN3-1
11/05/24ANewtown AFC Vs PEN0-5
21/04/24HPEN Vs Haverfordwest County AFC1-0
13/04/24APontypridd Town Vs PEN0-3
06/04/24AAberystwyth Town Vs PEN0-3
29/03/24ABarry Town Vs PEN0-0
16/03/24HPEN Vs Colwyn Bay5-0

Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/08/24HAT Vs Barry Town1-0
16/08/24HAT Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC1-1
09/08/24ANewtown AFC Vs AT4-1
21/04/24HAT Vs Pontypridd Town3-0
13/04/24ABarry Town Vs AT2-1
09/04/24APontypridd Town Vs AT0-0
06/04/24HAT Vs Penybont0-3
29/03/24AColwyn Bay Vs AT1-2
15/03/24AHaverfordwest County AFC Vs AT2-0
02/03/24HAT Vs Barry Town1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Penybont
Penybont
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDD1.58
HomeDLWWD1.46
AwayWWLWD1.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%38%46%
AVG goals2.522.462.58
Over 1.5 %68%67%69%
Over 2.5 %48%38%58%
Over 3.5 %26%25%27%
Scored1.441.291.58
Conceded1.081.171.00
BTTS46%46%46%
Clean Sheet42%33%50%
Corners8.507.0010.00
Cards7.003.0011.00
Aberystwyth Town
Aberystwyth Town
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDW1.02
HomeDLWDW1.04
AwayLWDLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%27%25%
AVG goals2.862.653.08
Over 1.5 %72%65%79%
Over 2.5 %48%46%50%
Over 3.5 %28%23%33%
Scored1.061.121.00
Conceded1.801.542.08
BTTS50%54%46%
Clean Sheet22%19%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1The New SaintsThe New Saints3278
81%
2.4
8931+58
3.8
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.81.0
-
2PenybontPenybont3264
59%
2.0
5632+24
2.8
69%
56%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.81.0
-
3Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC3354
42%
1.6
4227+15
2.1
58%
36%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.30.8
-
4Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town3552
43%
1.5
5956+3
3.3
86%
66%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.71.6
-
5Barry TownBarry Town3352
45%
1.6
5756+1
3.4
91%
67%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.7
-
6Cardiff METCardiff MET3448
38%
1.4
4446-2
2.6
74%
59%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.4
-
7GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC3242
38%
1.3
4735+12
2.6
69%
47%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.1
-
8Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United3242
41%
1.3
4862-14
3.4
91%
72%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.9
-
9Bala TownBala Town3337
24%
1.1
3844-6
2.5
70%
45%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.3
-
10Briton FerryBriton Ferry3232
28%
1.0
4665-19
3.5
78%
66%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.42.0
-
11Newtown AFCNewtown AFC3226
19%
0.8
3665-29
3.2
84%
69%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
12Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town3221
19%
0.7
2871-43
3.1
81%
66%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.2
-
Wales: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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