Penybont are the clear favourites, with a 44% chance of triumph, a 30% draw likelihood and a 26% chance of an Airbus UK win. The model expects 2.4 goals in total, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1 at 14.1%. Penys have been solid at home against weaker opposition, averaging two goals scored and one conceded, while Airbus, playing away against stronger teams, average 2.31 scored and 1.25 conceded. The match is set for a tight contest, but the data favours a home win.
The model’s selections are: Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.1%), Under 5.5 (96.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.0%), Under 4.5 (90.9%), and Home +2 handicap (90.0%). These picks reflect the expected low scoring nature of the fixture. Recent form shows Penys unbeaten in five, while Airbus have struggled after two straight defeats. The overall shape points to a cautious, low-scoring affair with the home side edging the advantage.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Penybont win
46.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Airbus UK win
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Penybont
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.40
0.73
0.80
1.73
2.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.67
0.50
1.00
0.00
6.00
vs Similar (24)
1.21
1.25
0.67
0.75
1.75
1.75
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.33
2.00
1.00
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Airbus UK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Airbus UK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.70
0.97
3.29
0.71
2.19
1.19
vs Stronger (27)
2.59
1.04
3.17
0.83
2.13
1.20
vs Similar (3)
3.67
0.33
4.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.7%
Under 1.5
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
42.2%
Under 2.5
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.5%
Under 3.5
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.9%
No
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
11.9%
0-0
10.6%
2-0
9.3%
2-1
8.9%
0-1
7.7%
1-2
6.1%
3-0
4.3%
Penybont goals ↓
Airbus UK goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.7%
4.3%
1.4%
0.3%
1
12%
14%
6.1%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.3%
8.9%
4.3%
1.4%
0.3%
3
4.3%
4.2%
2.0%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.5%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Penybont goals (down), columns = Airbus UK goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Penybont is 0.50 points better than Airbus UK in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Penybont is 0.17 goals worse than Airbus UK in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Penybont is 0.67 goals better than Airbus UK in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Penybont or Draw
75.5%
Avg Implied -
46%
30%
24%
covers Penybont + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Penybont or Airbus UK
70.5%
Avg Implied -
46%
30%
24%
covers Penybont + Airbus UK
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Airbus UK
54.0%
Avg Implied -
46%
30%
24%
covers Draw + Airbus UK
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Penybont over/under 0.5
Over
75.5%
Under
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5
Over
41.1%
Under
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5
Over
16.8%
Under
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 3.5
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airbus UK over/under 0.5
Over
61.8%
Under
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airbus UK over/under 1.5
Over
25.0%
Under
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airbus UK over/under 2.5
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airbus UK over/under 3.5
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Penybont, so a minus line means Penybont give that many goals of a start and Airbus UK receive them. At -1, Penybont must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Penybont win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Penybont)
Penybont -2
8.7%
Draw -2
14.2%
Airbus UK +2
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Penybont)
Penybont -1
22.9%
Draw -1
23.1%
Airbus UK +1
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Penybont)
Penybont +1
75.5%
Draw +1
15.4%
Airbus UK -1
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Penybont)
Penybont +2
90.9%
Draw +2
6.6%
Airbus UK -2
2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Penybont
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.33
0.27
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.62
0.25
0.25
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Airbus UK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Airbus UK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.47
1.36
0.29
0.75
0.62
vs Stronger (27)
1.04
0.52
1.33
0.33
0.80
0.67
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Penybont over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airbus UK over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airbus UK over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airbus UK over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Penybont
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.40
0.53
0.87
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.62
0.42
0.50
0.92
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Airbus UK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Airbus UK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
0.50
1.93
0.43
1.44
0.56
vs Stronger (27)
1.56
0.52
1.83
0.50
1.33
0.53
vs Similar (3)
2.67
0.33
2.50
0.00
3.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Penybont over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airbus UK over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airbus UK over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airbus UK over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Penybont's squad is €1m more valuable than Airbus UK's (€1m vs €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Penybont and Airbus UK have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Penybont and Airbus UK have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Penybont and Airbus UK have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →