This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Briton Ferry
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.30
1.63
2.38
1.56
2.21
1.71
vs Stronger (3)
2.33
1.67
3.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
2.26
1.65
2.15
1.54
2.40
1.80
vs Weaker (4)
2.50
1.50
3.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.8%
Under 1.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.0%
Under 2.5
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.0%
Under 3.5
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.3%
No
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
1-0
11.2%
2-0
10.9%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
8.0%
3-0
6.5%
3-1
5.8%
0-1 â
5.1%
Penybont goals ↓
Briton Ferry goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
5.1%
2.8%
0.8%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
4.9%
1.5%
0.3%
2
11%
9.8%
4.4%
1.3%
0.3%
3
6.5%
5.8%
2.6%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.9%
2.6%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Penybont goals (down), columns = Briton Ferry goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
The New Saints
2.44
Penybont
2.00
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.64
Barry Town
1.58
Caernarfon Town
1.49
Cardiff MET
1.41
Flint Town United
1.31
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.31
Bala Town
1.12
Briton Ferry
1.00
Newtown AFC
0.81
Aberystwyth Town
0.66
Penybont is 1.00 points better than Briton Ferry in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.00).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
The New Saints
2.78
Penybont
1.75
Barry Town
1.73
Caernarfon Town
1.69
Flint Town United
1.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.47
Briton Ferry
1.44
Cardiff MET
1.29
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.27
Bala Town
1.15
Newtown AFC
1.12
Aberystwyth Town
0.88
Penybont is 0.31 goals better than Briton Ferry in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 1.44).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.82
The New Saints
0.97
Penybont
1.00
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.09
Bala Town
1.33
Cardiff MET
1.35
Caernarfon Town
1.60
Barry Town
1.70
Flint Town United
1.94
Briton Ferry
2.03
Newtown AFC
2.03
Aberystwyth Town
2.22
Penybont is 1.03 goals better than Briton Ferry in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.03).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Penybont
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.43
0.50
0.50
0.94
0.38
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.33
0.40
0.30
1.00
0.36
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Briton Ferry
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.77
0.94
0.75
0.93
0.79
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
0.67
2.00
1.00
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.78
0.85
0.62
0.90
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
1.50
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Penybont over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Penybont
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.40
0.93
0.36
0.88
0.44
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.38
0.80
0.40
0.86
0.36
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.25
1.33
0.33
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Briton Ferry
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.87
1.44
0.81
1.29
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (23)
1.39
0.87
1.31
0.92
1.50
0.80
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.75
2.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Penybont over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 3.5
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
AT (2)
€0m
Penybont and Briton Ferry have a similar squad value (both €1m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Penybont and Briton Ferry have a similar attack value (both €1m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
Penybont and Briton Ferry have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Penybont and Briton Ferry have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
The New Saints
Haverfordwest County AFC
Caernarfon Town
Barry Town
Cardiff MET
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Flint Town United
Bala Town
Newtown AFC
Aberystwyth Town