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Penybont vs Colwyn Bay Result & Analysis

Date: 28/03/2026
Time: 14:30
Final 0-0
Penybont
Penybont
Vs
38%
35%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Colwyn Bay
Colwyn Bay
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Penybont win✗ Miss
38.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
34.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay win✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

PenybontPenybont

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-611D10W11D00D06L00D13L01L12L12LH·BRI26/12A·LLA01/01H·CAR13/01H·CAE24/01A·THE07/02H·GAP14/02A·COL21/02A·BAR03/03H·THE14/03A·GAP21/03
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.471.140.711.882.12
vs Stronger (3)1.004.671.002.001.006.00
vs Similar (26)1.541.121.150.621.921.62
vs Weaker (1)3.001.00--3.001.00
Clean sheet %37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Colwyn BayColwyn Bay

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L01L22D14L10W02L31W03L31W20WH·FLI01/01A·THE13/01H·GAP24/01A·CAE31/01A·BAR07/02H·THE13/02H·PEN21/02A·CAE27/02H·BAR14/03A·THE20/03
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.202.001.401.331.00
vs Stronger (4)0.751.000.501.501.000.50
vs Similar (25)1.881.242.421.421.381.08
vs Weaker (1)0.001.000.001.00--
Clean sheet %33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%17%026%128%217%38%43%51%6+
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
57.1%
Under 1.5
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
28.8%
Under 2.5
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.0%
Under 3.5
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
37.8%
No
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0 ✓
16.8%
1-1
14.7%
1-0
14.6%
0-1
11.6%
2-0
8.2%
2-1
6.9%
1-2
5.6%
0-2
5.4%
Penybont goals ↓
Colwyn Bay goals →
01234
017%12%5.4%1.5%0.3%
115%15%5.6%1.6%0.3%
28.2%6.9%2.9%0.8%0.2%
32.8%2.4%1.0%0.3%0.1%
40.7%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Penybont goals (down), columns = Colwyn Bay goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
2.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.81
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Barry Town
1.42
Briton Ferry
1.41
Caernarfon Town
1.41
Colwyn Bay
1.39
Penybont
1.32
Cardiff MET
1.19
Flint Town United
1.09
Bala Town
1.00
llanelli AFC
0.41
Penybont is 0.07 points worse than Colwyn Bay in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 1.39).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
2.53
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.91
Caernarfon Town
1.75
Flint Town United
1.50
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Briton Ferry
1.44
Cardiff MET
1.34
Barry Town
1.33
Colwyn Bay
1.24
Penybont
1.21
Bala Town
1.03
llanelli AFC
0.53
Penybont is 0.04 goals worse than Colwyn Bay in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.24).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.78
Barry Town
1.03
Colwyn Bay
1.12
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.19
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.35
Bala Town
1.41
Penybont
1.44
Briton Ferry
1.47
Caernarfon Town
1.47
Cardiff MET
1.59
Flint Town United
1.84
llanelli AFC
2.56
Penybont is 0.32 goals worse than Colwyn Bay in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.12).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PenybontPenybont

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D01L00D02L00D01L00D11D01LH·BRI26/12A·LLA01/01H·CAR13/01H·CAE24/01A·THE07/02H·GAP14/02A·COL21/02A·BAR03/03H·THE14/03A·GAP21/03
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.630.500.210.691.00
vs Stronger (3)0.332.001.001.000.002.50
vs Similar (26)0.580.460.460.150.690.77
vs Weaker (1)2.001.00--2.001.00
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Colwyn BayColwyn Bay

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L02L01L00D00D10W01L10W20WH·FLI01/01A·THE13/01H·GAP24/01A·CAE31/01A·BAR07/02H·THE13/02H·PEN21/02A·CAE27/02H·BAR14/03A·THE20/03
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.471.130.600.670.33
vs Stronger (4)0.500.250.000.001.000.50
vs Similar (25)1.000.481.420.670.620.31
vs Weaker (1)0.001.000.001.00--
Clean sheet %63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Penybont over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PenybontPenybont

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L10W10W00D04L00D12L01L01L11DH·BRI26/12A·LLA01/01H·CAR13/01H·CAE24/01A·THE07/02H·GAP14/02A·COL21/02A·BAR03/03H·THE14/03A·GAP21/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.830.640.501.191.12
vs Stronger (3)0.672.670.001.001.003.50
vs Similar (26)0.960.650.690.461.230.85
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Colwyn BayColwyn Bay

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L00D20W13L10W02L21W02L21W00DH·FLI01/01A·THE13/01H·GAP24/01A·CAE31/01A·BAR07/02H·THE13/02H·PEN21/02A·CAE27/02H·BAR14/03A·THE20/03
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.730.870.800.670.67
vs Stronger (4)0.250.750.501.500.000.00
vs Similar (25)0.880.761.000.750.770.77
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Penybont over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.588.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 2.571.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
LA (2)
€0m
Penybont and Colwyn Bay have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
Penybont and Colwyn Bay have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
Penybont and Colwyn Bay have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
Penybont and Colwyn Bay have a similar defence value (both €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
3
PEN wins
0
Draws
4
CB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Penybont vs Colwyn Bay · H/A from PEN
DateH/AGameScore
21/02/26AColwyn Bay Vs PEN3-1
29/11/25AColwyn Bay Vs PEN5-4
27/09/25HPEN Vs Colwyn Bay1-0
16/03/24HPEN Vs Colwyn Bay5-0
03/02/24AColwyn Bay Vs PEN1-2
25/11/23AColwyn Bay Vs PEN2-1
09/09/23HPEN Vs Colwyn Bay0-1

PenybontPenybont

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/03/26AGAP Connah S Quay FC Vs PEN2-1
14/03/26HPEN Vs The New Saints1-2
03/03/26ABarry Town Vs PEN1-0
21/02/26AColwyn Bay Vs PEN3-1
14/02/26HPEN Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC0-0
07/02/26AThe New Saints Vs PEN6-0
24/01/26HPEN Vs Caernarfon Town0-0
13/01/26HPEN Vs Cardiff MET1-1
01/01/26Allanelli AFC Vs PEN0-1
26/12/25HPEN Vs Briton Ferry1-1

Colwyn BayColwyn Bay

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/03/26AThe New Saints Vs CB0-2
14/03/26HCB Vs Barry Town3-1
27/02/26ACaernarfon Town Vs CB3-0
21/02/26HCB Vs Penybont3-1
13/02/26HCB Vs The New Saints0-2
07/02/26ABarry Town Vs CB0-1
31/01/26ACaernarfon Town Vs CB4-1
24/01/26HCB Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC2-2
13/01/26AThe New Saints Vs CB1-0
01/01/26HCB Vs Flint Town United1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Penybont
Penybont
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLL1.50
HomeDDDDL1.67
AwayWLLLL1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%42%42%
AVG goals2.901.923.81
Over 1.5 %70%58%81%
Over 2.5 %56%29%81%
Over 3.5 %36%17%54%
Scored1.441.171.69
Conceded1.460.752.12
BTTS50%42%58%
Clean Sheet34%46%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Colwyn Bay
Colwyn Bay
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWW1.96
HomeLDLWW2.08
AwayLLWLW1.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%62%58%
AVG goals3.003.502.54
Over 1.5 %74%83%65%
Over 2.5 %58%71%46%
Over 3.5 %40%54%27%
Scored1.982.421.58
Conceded1.021.080.96
BTTS48%54%42%
Clean Sheet38%38%38%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1The New SaintsThe New Saints3280
81%
2.5
8125+56
3.3
88%
66%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.50.8
-
2GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC3258
50%
1.8
6138+23
3.1
88%
69%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.91.2
-
3Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC3449
41%
1.4
4946+3
2.8
71%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.4
-
4Barry TownBarry Town3347
36%
1.4
4434+10
2.4
64%
39%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.0
-
5Colwyn BayColwyn Bay3346
36%
1.4
4137+4
2.4
64%
39%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.1
-
6Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town3245
38%
1.4
5647+9
3.2
91%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.81.5
-
7Briton FerryBriton Ferry3245
38%
1.4
4647-1
2.9
81%
56%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.5
-
8PenybontPenybont3445
35%
1.3
4149-8
2.6
68%
41%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.21.4
-
9Cardiff METCardiff MET3238
25%
1.2
4351-8
2.9
88%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.6
-
10Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United3235
25%
1.1
4859-11
3.3
81%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.8
-
11Bala TownBala Town3232
25%
1.0
3345-12
2.4
72%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.4
-
12llanelli AFCllanelli AFC3213
9%
0.4
1782-65
3.1
78%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.6
-
Wales: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

← all matches