PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Penybont vs Haverfordwest County AFC Result & Analysis

Date: 18/08/2023
Time: 18:45
Final 2-0
Penybont
Penybont
Vs
44%
27%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Haverfordwest County AFC
Haverfordwest County AFC
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Penybont win✓ Hit
44.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC win✗ Miss
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

PenybontPenybont

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D10W22D32W25L00D21W11D00D31WH·GAP11/03A·NEW18/03H·BAL25/03A·CAR31/03H·THE08/04A·GAP15/04H·NEW22/04H·FC 13/07A·FC 20/07A·NEW12/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.600.931.791.291.440.62
vs Stronger (5)0.801.401.002.000.500.50
vs Similar (21)1.570.951.891.221.330.75
vs Weaker (4)2.750.252.500.503.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W11D41W00D11D01L10W12L10W00DH·PON07/04H·ABE15/04A·AIR22/04A·CAR06/05A·NEW13/05A·SHK13/07H·SHK20/07A·B3627/07H·B3603/08H·PON11/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.231.711.071.061.38
vs Stronger (4)0.751.751.001.500.502.00
vs Similar (23)1.221.221.641.090.831.33
vs Weaker (3)3.330.674.000.003.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.0%
Under 1.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.5%
Under 2.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.1%
Under 3.5
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.3%
No
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
8.0%
2-0 ✓
7.3%
1-2
7.3%
0-0
6.9%
0-1
6.1%
2-2
5.8%
Penybont goals ↓
Haverfordwest County AFC goals →
01234
06.9%6.1%4.5%1.9%0.6%
18.0%13%7.3%3.1%1.0%
27.3%9.2%5.8%2.4%0.8%
33.9%4.9%3.1%1.3%0.4%
41.6%2.0%1.2%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Penybont goals (down), columns = Haverfordwest County AFC goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
2.88
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.84
Bala Town
1.59
Penybont
1.53
Caernarfon Town
1.38
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.34
Newtown AFC
1.33
Cardiff MET
1.18
Barry Town
1.00
Pontypridd Town
0.97
Aberystwyth Town
0.84
Colwyn Bay
0.78
Penybont is 0.19 points better than Haverfordwest County AFC in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.34).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
3.66
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.19
Caernarfon Town
1.68
Penybont
1.53
Newtown AFC
1.48
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.22
Bala Town
1.19
Barry Town
1.12
Colwyn Bay
1.06
Cardiff MET
1.06
Aberystwyth Town
0.84
Pontypridd Town
0.72
Penybont is 0.31 goals better than Haverfordwest County AFC in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.22).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.56
Bala Town
0.97
Penybont
1.18
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.25
Pontypridd Town
1.28
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.34
Newtown AFC
1.55
Barry Town
1.69
Aberystwyth Town
1.78
Cardiff MET
1.97
Colwyn Bay
2.06
Caernarfon Town
2.09
Penybont is 0.07 goals better than Haverfordwest County AFC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 1.25).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PenybontPenybont

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D10W01L02L00D01L01L00D20WH·GAP11/03A·NEW18/03H·BAL25/03A·CAR31/03H·THE08/04A·GAP15/04H·NEW22/04H·FC 13/07A·FC 20/07A·NEW12/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.400.790.500.620.31
vs Stronger (5)0.000.800.001.000.000.50
vs Similar (21)0.760.331.000.330.580.33
vs Weaker (4)1.250.251.000.501.500.00
Clean sheet %67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W01L11D00D11D00D00D01L00D00DH·PON07/04H·ABE15/04A·AIR22/04A·CAR06/05A·NEW13/05A·SHK13/07H·SHK20/07A·B3627/07H·B3603/08H·PON11/08
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.630.860.500.380.75
vs Stronger (4)0.001.000.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (23)0.700.571.000.450.420.67
vs Weaker (3)0.670.671.000.000.501.00
Clean sheet %47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Penybont over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PenybontPenybont

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W12L31W23L00D20W10W00D11DH·GAP11/03A·NEW18/03H·BAL25/03A·CAR31/03H·THE08/04A·GAP15/04H·NEW22/04H·FC 13/07A·FC 20/07A·NEW12/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.531.000.790.810.31
vs Stronger (5)0.800.601.001.000.500.00
vs Similar (21)0.810.620.890.890.750.42
vs Weaker (4)1.500.001.500.001.500.00
Clean sheet %63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W30W00D00D01L10W11D10W00DH·PON07/04H·ABE15/04A·AIR22/04A·CAR06/05A·NEW13/05A·SHK13/07H·SHK20/07A·B3627/07H·B3603/08H·PON11/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.600.860.570.690.62
vs Stronger (4)0.750.751.000.500.501.00
vs Similar (23)0.520.650.640.640.420.67
vs Weaker (3)2.670.003.000.002.500.00
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Penybont over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards80.3%--------
Over 1.579.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners77.4%--------
Over 2.5 cards74.4%--------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
AT (2)
€0m
Penybont and Haverfordwest County AFC have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Penybont and Haverfordwest County AFC have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
Penybont and Haverfordwest County AFC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Penybont and Haverfordwest County AFC have a similar defence value (both €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
PEN wins
0
Draws
1
HCA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Penybont vs Haverfordwest County AFC · H/A from PEN
DateH/AGameScore
02/12/22AHaverfordwest County AFC Vs PEN2-1
30/08/22HPEN Vs Haverfordwest County AFC3-2

PenybontPenybont

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/08/23ANewtown AFC Vs PEN1-3
20/07/23AFC Santa Coloma Vs PEN0-0
13/07/23HPEN Vs FC Santa Coloma1-1
22/04/23HPEN Vs Newtown AFC2-1
15/04/23AGAP Connah S Quay FC Vs PEN0-0
08/04/23HPEN Vs The New Saints2-5
31/03/23ACardiff MET Vs PEN2-3
25/03/23HPEN Vs Bala Town2-2
18/03/23ANewtown AFC Vs PEN0-1
11/03/23HPEN Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC1-1

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/08/23HHCA Vs Pontypridd Town0-0
03/08/23HHCA Vs B36 Torshavn1-0
27/07/23AB36 Torshavn Vs HCA2-1
20/07/23HHCA Vs Shkendija1-0
13/07/23AShkendija Vs HCA1-0
13/05/23ANewtown AFC Vs HCA1-1
06/05/23ACardiff MET Vs HCA0-0
22/04/23AAirbus UK Vs HCA1-4
15/04/23HHCA Vs Aberystwyth Town1-1
07/04/23HHCA Vs Pontypridd Town2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Penybont
Penybont
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 5 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDDW1.80
HomeDDLWD1.88
AwayWWDDW1.72
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %49%53%44%
AVG goals2.543.122.00
Over 1.5 %74%88%61%
Over 2.5 %46%59%33%
Over 3.5 %26%35%17%
Scored1.571.881.28
Conceded0.971.240.72
BTTS54%71%39%
Clean Sheet37%24%50%
Corners8.507.0010.00
Cards7.003.0011.00
Haverfordwest County AFC
Haverfordwest County AFC
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWD1.44
HomeWDWWD2.00
AwayWDDLL0.90
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %41%58%25%
AVG goals2.592.682.50
Over 1.5 %74%74%75%
Over 2.5 %49%53%45%
Over 3.5 %28%37%20%
Scored1.361.681.05
Conceded1.231.001.45
BTTS56%58%55%
Clean Sheet31%42%20%
Corners11.6713.508.00
Cards4.675.503.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1The New SaintsThe New Saints3292
94%
2.9
11718+99
4.2
81%
72%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1113.70.6
-
2GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC3259
56%
1.8
7043+27
3.5
84%
72%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.21.3
-
3PenybontPenybont3452
44%
1.5
5240+12
2.7
71%
53%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.51.2
-
4Bala TownBala Town3251
41%
1.6
3831+7
2.2
59%
31%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.0
-
5Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town3447
38%
1.4
5771-14
3.8
91%
74%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.72.1
-
6Newtown AFCNewtown AFC3344
39%
1.3
4951-2
3.0
79%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
7Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC3243
34%
1.3
3940-1
2.5
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.2
-
8Cardiff METCardiff MET3339
30%
1.2
3565-30
3.0
79%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.12.0
-
9Barry TownBarry Town3232
22%
1.0
3654-18
2.8
75%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.7
-
10Pontypridd TownPontypridd Town3231
25%
1.0
2341-18
2.0
56%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.3
-
11Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town3227
22%
0.8
2757-30
2.6
69%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
12Colwyn BayColwyn Bay3225
22%
0.8
3466-32
3.1
72%
66%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.12.1
-
Wales: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

← all matches