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Penybont vs The New Saints Result & Analysis

Date: 02/08/2026
Time: 13:30
Final 0-0
Penybont
Penybont
Vs
21%
29%
50%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
The New Saints
The New Saints
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Squad value14 Games History15 Overall Statistics16 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Penybont's recent form has been impressive, coming off a win in their last outing, but they face a significant challenge against The New Saints. The away side has been unbeaten in their last five matches, including a 2-0 win over Haverfordwest County AFC. The New Saints' strong form on the road is reflected in their average of 2.86 goals scored and 0.71 conceded when facing weaker opponents.

The model predicts an Away win, with a 50% probability, while the market suggests a 21% chance of a home win and 29% of a draw. The expected total number of goals is 2.3, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 13.6% probability.

The New Saints' away scoring and conceding statistics suggest they will maintain their form against Penybont. Penybont, on the other hand, has struggled to score and concede at home, averaging 0.83 goals scored and 0.83 conceded against stronger opponents.

The model's selection is Under 3.5, with a 79.9% probability, offering a 14% edge. This pick has been successful in the past, with a hit rate. The model also suggests Home win percentage is 21%, Draw percentage is 29%, and Away win percentage is 50%.

Results analysis

The unbeaten away side, The New Saints, pulled off a stunning 0-0 draw against Penybont, extending their run of five consecutive wins. This result came as a surprise, given that the pre-match favourite, The New Saints, had a 50% probability of winning according to the model. However, the model's selection, an away win, was incorrect. Meanwhile, the model's suggestion of Under 3.5 goals, with a probability of 79.9%, hit the mark, as the final score was 0-0.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Penybont win✗ Miss
20.7%
Avg Implied 17.3% · @ 5.22
Edge
+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.74
William Hil
5.50
888Sport
5.50
1xBet
5.49
Marathonbet
5.40
Draw✓ Hit
29.2%
Avg Implied 23.2% · @ 3.90
Edge
+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.15
Dafabet
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
The New Saints win✗ Miss
50.1%
Avg Implied 59.5% · @ 1.52
Edge
-9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.56
Superbet
1.56
Unibet
1.55
William Hil
1.55
Pinnacle
1.54

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

PenybontPenybont

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D13L01L12L12L00D02L02L00D20WH·GAP14/02A·COL21/02A·BAR03/03H·THE14/03A·GAP21/03H·COL28/03H·BAR03/04A·CAE18/04A·COL25/04H·HAV02/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.500.790.791.692.12
vs Stronger (3)1.004.671.002.001.006.00
vs Similar (25)1.201.200.750.671.621.69
vs Weaker (2)2.500.501.001.004.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

The New SaintsThe New Saints

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-610W60W20W21W21W21W02L40W21W10WH·BAR24/01H·PEN07/02A·COL13/02H·CAE20/02A·GAP03/03A·PEN14/03H·COL20/03A·CAE27/03H·GAP03/04A·BAR18/04
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.600.803.070.862.190.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (30)2.600.803.070.862.190.75
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%021%128%220%312%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.1%
@ 1.20-7.8%
Under 1.5
31.9%
@ 3.79+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
888Sport
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Under
888Sport
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.85
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.4%
@ 1.68-14.5%
Under 2.5
59.6%
@ 2.04+14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.72
Pinnacle
1.71
Bet365
1.70
10Bet
1.70
888Sport
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.13
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Betano
2.07
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.1%
@ 2.65-14.3%
Under 3.5
79.9%
@ 1.39+14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.74
Unibet
2.70
Under
Pinnacle
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.0%
@ 1.74-7.6%
No
55.0%
@ 1.93+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.83
Marathonbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.75
888Sport
1.75
No
William Hil
2.00
Betfair
2.00
888Sport
2.00
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.95

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%@ 7.19+7.4%
0-1
13.3%@ 6.83+6.9%
0-0 ✓
11.3%@ 11.17+7.3%
0-2
10.6%@ 7.13+4.4%
1-2
9.0%@ 7.22+2.8%
1-0
7.3%@ 14.37+4.2%
2-1
5.2%@ 15.16+2.3%
0-3
5.1%@ 10.59+1.0%
Penybont goals ↓
The New Saints goals →
01234
011%13%11%5.1%1.9%
17.3%14%9.0%4.3%1.6%
23.6%5.2%3.8%1.8%0.7%
31.0%1.5%1.1%0.5%0.2%
40.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Penybont goals (down), columns = The New Saints goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
2.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.81
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Barry Town
1.42
Caernarfon Town
1.41
Briton Ferry
1.41
Colwyn Bay
1.39
Penybont
1.32
Cardiff MET
1.19
Flint Town United
1.09
Llandudno
0.99
Cambrian & Clydach
0.99
Holywell
0.95
Trefelin
0.89
Ammanford AFC
0.89
Airbus UK
0.72
Penybont is 1.18 points worse than The New Saints in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 2.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
2.53
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.91
Caernarfon Town
1.75
Flint Town United
1.50
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Briton Ferry
1.44
Cardiff MET
1.34
Barry Town
1.33
Colwyn Bay
1.24
Penybont
1.21
Llandudno
1.04
Cambrian & Clydach
1.04
Holywell
1.00
Trefelin
0.94
Ammanford AFC
0.94
Airbus UK
0.76
Penybont is 1.33 goals worse than The New Saints in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 2.53).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.78
Barry Town
1.03
Colwyn Bay
1.12
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.19
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.35
Penybont
1.44
Caernarfon Town
1.47
Briton Ferry
1.47
Cardiff MET
1.59
Flint Town United
1.84
Llandudno
1.98
Cambrian & Clydach
1.98
Holywell
2.07
Trefelin
2.20
Ammanford AFC
2.20
Airbus UK
2.74
Penybont is 0.66 goals worse than The New Saints in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 0.78).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PenybontPenybont

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L00D11D01L00D02L02L00D10WH·GAP14/02A·COL21/02A·BAR03/03H·THE14/03A·GAP21/03H·COL28/03H·BAR03/04A·CAE18/04A·COL25/04H·HAV02/05
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.730.290.360.621.06
vs Stronger (3)0.332.001.001.000.002.50
vs Similar (25)0.440.600.250.250.620.92
vs Weaker (2)1.000.500.001.002.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

The New SaintsThe New Saints

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W20W00D11D00D11D02L20W00D10WH·BAR24/01H·PEN07/02A·COL13/02H·CAE20/02A·GAP03/03A·PEN14/03H·COL20/03A·CAE27/03H·GAP03/04A·BAR18/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.331.000.431.120.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (30)1.070.331.000.431.120.25
Clean sheet %77% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Penybont over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PenybontPenybont

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D12L01L01L11D00D00D00D00D10WH·GAP14/02A·COL21/02A·BAR03/03H·THE14/03A·GAP21/03H·COL28/03H·BAR03/04A·CAE18/04A·COL25/04H·HAV02/05
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.770.500.431.061.06
vs Stronger (3)0.672.670.001.001.003.50
vs Similar (25)0.760.600.500.421.000.77
vs Weaker (2)1.500.001.000.002.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

The New SaintsThe New Saints

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D40W20W10W21W10W00D20W21W00DH·BAR24/01H·PEN07/02A·COL13/02H·CAE20/02A·GAP03/03A·PEN14/03H·COL20/03A·CAE27/03H·GAP03/04A·BAR18/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.530.472.070.431.060.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (30)1.530.472.070.431.060.50
Clean sheet %63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Penybont over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.579.9%1.39
Pinnacle
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.40
+14.3%✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
Penybont's squad is €1m less valuable than The New Saints's (€1m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
HCA (7)
€0m
Penybont and The New Saints have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
HCA (7)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
Penybont and The New Saints have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
PEN (7)
€0m
Penybont and The New Saints have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
PEN wins
0
Draws
6
TNS wins

Head-to-head

Penybont vs The New Saints · H/A from PEN
DateH/AGameScore
14/03/26HPEN Vs The New Saints1-2
07/02/26AThe New Saints Vs PEN6-0
11/10/25AThe New Saints Vs PEN6-2
16/08/25HPEN Vs The New Saints0-2
29/03/25HPEN Vs The New Saints1-0
08/02/25AThe New Saints Vs PEN4-0
23/11/24AThe New Saints Vs PEN3-2
20/09/24HPEN Vs The New Saints2-1

PenybontPenybont

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/05/26HPEN Vs Haverfordwest County AFC2-0
25/04/26AColwyn Bay Vs PEN0-0
18/04/26ACaernarfon Town Vs PEN2-0
03/04/26HPEN Vs Barry Town0-2
28/03/26HPEN Vs Colwyn Bay0-0
21/03/26AGAP Connah S Quay FC Vs PEN2-1
14/03/26HPEN Vs The New Saints1-2
03/03/26ABarry Town Vs PEN1-0
21/02/26AColwyn Bay Vs PEN3-1
14/02/26HPEN Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC0-0

The New SaintsThe New Saints

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26ABarry Town Vs TNS0-1
03/04/26HTNS Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC2-1
27/03/26ACaernarfon Town Vs TNS0-4
20/03/26HTNS Vs Colwyn Bay0-2
14/03/26APenybont Vs TNS1-2
03/03/26AGAP Connah S Quay FC Vs TNS1-2
20/02/26HTNS Vs Caernarfon Town2-1
13/02/26AColwyn Bay Vs TNS0-2
07/02/26HTNS Vs Penybont6-0
24/01/26HTNS Vs Barry Town1-0

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Penybont
Penybont
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLDW1.40
HomeDLDLW1.54
AwayLLLLD1.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%38%38%
AVG goals2.741.833.58
Over 1.5 %70%62%77%
Over 2.5 %50%25%73%
Over 3.5 %32%12%50%
Scored1.321.081.54
Conceded1.420.752.04
BTTS44%38%50%
Clean Sheet36%46%27%
Corners---
Cards---
The New Saints
The New Saints
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 9 Wins / 0 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWW2.34
HomeWWWLW2.42
AwayWWWWW2.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %76%79%73%
AVG goals3.183.542.85
Over 1.5 %82%83%81%
Over 2.5 %64%71%58%
Over 3.5 %38%42%35%
Scored2.442.752.15
Conceded0.740.790.69
BTTS40%38%42%
Clean Sheet50%50%50%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Barry TownBarry Town412
100%
3.0
94+5
3.2
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
2The New SaintsThe New Saints410
75%
2.5
80+8
2.0
50%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.00.0
-
3PenybontPenybont410
75%
2.5
72+5
2.2
75%
75%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.80.5
-
4GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC49
75%
2.2
123+9
3.8
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.00.8
-
5LlandudnoLlandudno49
75%
2.2
115+6
4.0
100%
100%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.2
-
6Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town49
75%
2.2
83+5
2.8
100%
75%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.8
-
7Cambrian & ClydachCambrian & Clydach47
50%
1.8
63+3
2.2
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.8
-
8Briton FerryBriton Ferry47
50%
1.8
43+1
1.8
50%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.8
-
9Colwyn BayColwyn Bay47
50%
1.8
55+0
2.5
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.2
-
10Cardiff METCardiff MET46
50%
1.5
87+1
3.8
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.8
-
11Airbus UKAirbus UK46
50%
1.5
33+0
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.80.8
-
12Ammanford AFCAmmanford AFC41
0%
0.2
38-5
2.8
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.0
-
13Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United40
0%
0.0
48-4
3.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
14Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC40
0%
0.0
09-9
2.2
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.02.2
-
15HolywellHolywell40
0%
0.0
415-11
4.8
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.8
-
16TrefelinTrefelin40
0%
0.0
014-14
3.5
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.03.5
-
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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