The contest between Peterhead and Alloa Athletic is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win probabilities sit at 32% and 39% respectively, while a draw is 29%. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, with the most likely total of two goals carrying a 26% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13.8% probability. Peterhead, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Alloa, on the road, averages 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against similar opposition. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.4%), Under 5.5 (95.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.0%), Over 19.5 fouls (89.3%), Under 4.5 (87.9%), and Home under 2.5 goals (87.3%). The match remains finely balanced, with the away side holding a slight edge.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Peterhead win
32.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic win
38.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Peterhead
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.53
1.07
1.50
1.12
1.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.16
1.52
1.25
1.50
1.08
1.54
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
1.60
0.00
1.50
1.33
1.67
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alloa Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.46
1.38
0.92
1.47
1.93
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
4.00
-
-
2.00
4.00
vs Similar (13)
1.38
1.00
1.33
0.56
1.50
2.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.43
1.71
1.50
1.75
1.40
1.70
Clean sheet %
32% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Peterhead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.3%
Under 1.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.9%
Under 2.5
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.2%
Under 3.5
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.9%
No
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
0-1
9.0%
0-0
8.8%
1-2
8.6%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
7.7%
0-2
7.0%
2-0
5.6%
Peterhead goals ↓
Alloa Athletic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
9.0%
7.0%
3.2%
1.1%
1
7.9%
14%
8.6%
3.9%
1.3%
2
5.6%
7.7%
5.2%
2.4%
0.8%
3
2.3%
3.2%
2.1%
1.0%
0.3%
4
0.7%
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Peterhead goals (down), columns = Alloa Athletic goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Alloa Athletic
1.28
Queen of the South
1.28
Ross County
1.25
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
Peterhead is 0.08 points worse than Alloa Athletic in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.28).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.36
East Kilbride
1.36
Alloa Athletic
1.36
Queen of the South
1.36
Montrose
1.33
Peterhead
1.33
Ross County
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
East Fife
0.94
Peterhead is 0.02 goals worse than Alloa Athletic in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.36).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cove Rangers
1.22
Airdrie United
1.44
East Kilbride
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.44
Queen of the South
1.44
Ross County
1.47
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
Peterhead is 0.33 goals worse than Alloa Athletic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.78 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Peterhead
For 4.5 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 16.1 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Alloa Athletic
For 5.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 0.0 · Total 1.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 13.0 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Peterhead
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.2
9.1
3.3
3.4
3.2
28.3
28.1
28.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (41)
9.7
10.3
9.2
3.0
3.0
3.0
27.4
26.6
28.2
vs Weaker (9)
6.9
5.5
8.7
4.6
5.0
4.0
31.9
33.2
30.0
% over line
41%
39%
44%
50%
54%
46%
88%
94%
81%
% under line
59%
61%
56%
50%
46%
54%
12%
6%
19%
This opponent (Alloa Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alloa Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (35)
10.0
-
10.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
22.0
-
22.0
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
10.0
-
10.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
22.0
-
22.0
vs Weaker (16)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
100%
-
100%
0%
0%
0%
100%
-
100%
% under line
0%
-
0%
100%
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
This opponent (Peterhead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
10.9
Hamilton Academical
10.5
East Kilbride
10.4
Airdrie United
10.1
Alloa Athletic
10.0
East Fife
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.4
Peterhead
8.9
Montrose
8.5
Queen of the South
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Peterhead
5.0
Montrose
3.7
East Fife
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
Queen of the South
3.0
Hamilton Academical
2.7
Alloa Athletic
1.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
East Kilbride
26.4
East Fife
22.9
Montrose
22.2
Alloa Athletic
22.0
Cove Rangers
21.0
Ross County
21.0
Queen of the South
20.0
Airdrie United
20.0
Hamilton Academical
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.2%
Under 9.5
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
56.8%
Under 3.5
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
79.3%
Under 21.5
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Peterhead or Draw
61.3%
Avg Implied -
32%
29%
39%
covers Peterhead + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Peterhead or Alloa Athletic
71.1%
Avg Implied -
32%
29%
39%
covers Peterhead + Alloa Athletic
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Alloa Athletic
67.6%
Avg Implied -
32%
29%
39%
covers Draw + Alloa Athletic
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Peterhead over/under 0.5
Over
70.7%
Under
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 1.5
Over
34.7%
Under
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 2.5
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 3.5
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 0.5
Over
74.4%
Under
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 1.5
Over
39.5%
Under
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 2.5
Over
15.8%
Under
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 3.5
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Peterhead, so a minus line means Peterhead give that many goals of a start and Alloa Athletic receive them. At -1, Peterhead must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Peterhead win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Peterhead)
Peterhead -2
4.7%
Draw -2
9.5%
Alloa Athletic +2
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Peterhead)
Peterhead -1
14.3%
Draw -1
18.1%
Alloa Athletic +1
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Peterhead)
Peterhead +1
61.3%
Draw +1
20.3%
Alloa Athletic -1
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Peterhead)
Peterhead +2
81.5%
Draw +2
11.8%
Alloa Athletic -2
6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Peterhead
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.43
0.50
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.40
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.31
0.69
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.60
0.00
0.50
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alloa Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.54
0.86
0.46
0.38
0.60
1.27
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.38
0.56
0.11
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
0.50
1.21
0.25
1.00
0.60
1.30
Clean sheet %
54% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Peterhead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Peterhead over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Peterhead
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.93
0.64
1.00
0.75
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.92
0.75
1.00
0.77
0.85
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alloa Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
0.61
0.92
0.54
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.62
0.78
0.44
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.50
1.25
0.75
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Peterhead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Peterhead over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Hamilton Academical
Ross County
East Kilbride
East Fife
Montrose
Cove Rangers
Airdrie United
Queen of the South