The match between Peterhead and Cove Rangers is a tight affair, with the model favouring a home win but the margins are razor-thin. The probabilities are 37% for Peterhead, 28% for a draw, and 35% for Cove Rangers, so the most likely outcome is a Peterhead victory. On average, the game should see 2.7 goals, with the single most probable scoreline being 1-1 at a 13.4% chance. Peterhead, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, has been scoring 1.25 goals per game while conceding 1.5. Cove Rangers, on the road, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.92 conceded against comparable teams. Recent form shows Peterhead coming off a 1-1 draw with Alloa Athletic, whereas Cove Rangers are returning from a 0-1 defeat to Hamilton Academical. The model’s selections are overwhelmingly low-scoring: Under 7.5 goals (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.9%), Under 5.5 (94.2%), Under 4.5 (86.1%), Away under 2.5 goals (85.0%) and Over 19.5 fouls (84.8%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Peterhead win
37.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers win
34.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Peterhead
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.53
1.07
1.50
1.12
1.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.16
1.52
1.25
1.50
1.08
1.54
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
1.60
0.00
1.50
1.33
1.67
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cove Rangers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.40
1.21
1.00
1.19
1.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.38
1.54
1.25
1.17
1.50
1.92
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.83
1.00
0.00
0.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Peterhead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.6%
Under 1.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.9%
Under 2.5
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.8%
Under 3.5
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.3%
No
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
8.1%
1-0
7.9%
0-0
7.9%
0-1
7.6%
2-0
6.3%
0-2
5.9%
Peterhead goals ↓
Cove Rangers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.9%
7.6%
5.9%
2.6%
0.9%
1
7.9%
13%
8.1%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.3%
8.4%
5.6%
2.5%
0.8%
3
2.9%
3.9%
2.6%
1.1%
0.4%
4
1.0%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Peterhead goals (down), columns = Cove Rangers goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Alloa Athletic
1.28
Queen of the South
1.28
Ross County
1.25
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
Peterhead is 0.14 points better than Cove Rangers in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.36
East Kilbride
1.36
Alloa Athletic
1.36
Queen of the South
1.36
Peterhead
1.33
Montrose
1.33
Ross County
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
East Fife
0.94
Peterhead is 0.19 goals better than Cove Rangers in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cove Rangers
1.22
Airdrie United
1.44
East Kilbride
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.44
Queen of the South
1.44
Ross County
1.47
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
Peterhead is 0.56 goals worse than Cove Rangers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.78 vs 1.22).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Peterhead
For 4.5 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 16.1 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cove Rangers
For 4.3 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 10.2 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Peterhead
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.2
9.5
3.5
3.6
3.4
27.9
28.1
27.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (40)
10.0
10.3
9.8
3.2
3.2
3.3
26.9
26.6
27.2
vs Weaker (10)
7.0
5.5
8.5
4.5
5.0
4.0
31.2
33.2
29.2
% over line
42%
39%
44%
54%
56%
52%
86%
94%
78%
% under line
58%
61%
56%
46%
44%
48%
14%
6%
22%
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cove Rangers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.7
10.2
2.3
2.9
1.8
21.4
21.8
21.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (40)
9.5
9.2
9.7
2.1
2.4
1.9
21.6
21.1
22.0
vs Weaker (10)
9.4
7.0
11.8
3.1
5.5
1.5
20.8
24.0
17.5
% over line
49%
35%
61%
30%
46%
15%
49%
41%
56%
% under line
51%
65%
39%
70%
54%
85%
51%
59%
44%
This opponent (Peterhead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
10.9
Hamilton Academical
10.5
East Kilbride
10.4
Airdrie United
10.1
Alloa Athletic
10.0
East Fife
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.4
Peterhead
8.9
Montrose
8.5
Queen of the South
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Peterhead
5.0
Montrose
3.7
East Fife
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
Queen of the South
3.0
Hamilton Academical
2.7
Alloa Athletic
1.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
East Kilbride
26.4
East Fife
22.9
Montrose
22.2
Alloa Athletic
22.0
Cove Rangers
21.0
Ross County
21.0
Queen of the South
20.0
Airdrie United
20.0
Hamilton Academical
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
49.6%
Under 9.5
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
52.1%
Under 3.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
72.6%
Under 21.5
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Peterhead or Draw
65.2%
Avg Implied -
37%
28%
35%
covers Peterhead + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Peterhead or Cove Rangers
71.8%
Avg Implied -
37%
28%
35%
covers Peterhead + Cove Rangers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Cove Rangers
63.0%
Avg Implied -
37%
28%
35%
covers Draw + Cove Rangers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Peterhead over/under 0.5
Over
74.8%
Under
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 1.5
Over
40.1%
Under
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 2.5
Over
16.2%
Under
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 3.5
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 0.5
Over
73.6%
Under
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 1.5
Over
38.4%
Under
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 2.5
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 3.5
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Peterhead, so a minus line means Peterhead give that many goals of a start and Cove Rangers receive them. At -1, Peterhead must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Peterhead win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Peterhead)
Peterhead -2
6.4%
Draw -2
11.2%
Cove Rangers +2
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Peterhead)
Peterhead -1
17.6%
Draw -1
19.4%
Cove Rangers +1
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Peterhead)
Peterhead +1
65.2%
Draw +1
18.7%
Cove Rangers -1
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Peterhead)
Peterhead +2
83.9%
Draw +2
10.4%
Cove Rangers -2
5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Peterhead
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.43
0.50
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.40
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.31
0.69
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.60
0.00
0.50
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cove Rangers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.29
0.50
0.50
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.54
0.25
0.58
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
0.67
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Peterhead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Peterhead over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Peterhead
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.93
0.64
1.00
0.75
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.92
0.75
1.00
0.77
0.85
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cove Rangers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.83
0.93
0.50
0.69
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.92
1.00
1.00
0.58
0.83
1.42
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.17
0.50
0.00
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Peterhead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Peterhead over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →