Peterhead are tipped to win this encounter, with the model giving a 47% chance for a home victory, a 25% chance of a draw and a 28% chance of Queen of the South taking the win. The average goal tally is expected to be 3.1, but the most likely total is two goals, with a 22% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.5% chance. Peterhead, playing at home against a weaker side, have not scored in their last five matches and concede 1.5 goals on average, while Queen of the South, away against a stronger opponent, average 1.17 goals scored and 2.33 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.5%), Under 6.5 (95.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.1%), Under 5.5 (90.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.4%), Home +2 handicap (87.2%), Over 19.5 fouls (86.8%) and Away under 2.5 goals (84.4%). The home side’s recent form shows a draw, while the away side is coming off five straight defeats.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Peterhead win
46.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South win
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Peterhead
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.53
1.07
1.50
1.12
1.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.16
1.52
1.25
1.50
1.08
1.54
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
1.60
0.00
1.50
1.33
1.67
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen of the South) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Queen of the South
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.91
1.68
0.91
1.45
0.91
1.91
vs Stronger (13)
0.77
2.15
0.43
2.00
1.17
2.33
vs Similar (4)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
0.60
2.33
0.33
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
18% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Peterhead) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.1%
Under 1.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.8%
Under 2.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.4%
Under 3.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.8%
No
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.3%
1-2
7.1%
2-0
6.9%
1-0
6.7%
2-2
6.3%
3-1
5.6%
0-0
5.4%
Peterhead goals ↓
Queen of the South goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
4.8%
4.0%
1.8%
0.6%
1
6.7%
12%
7.1%
3.2%
1.1%
2
6.9%
9.3%
6.3%
2.9%
1.0%
3
4.1%
5.6%
3.8%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.8%
2.5%
1.7%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Peterhead goals (down), columns = Queen of the South goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Alloa Athletic
1.28
Queen of the South
1.28
Ross County
1.25
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
Peterhead is 0.08 points worse than Queen of the South in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.28).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.36
East Kilbride
1.36
Alloa Athletic
1.36
Queen of the South
1.36
Montrose
1.33
Peterhead
1.33
Ross County
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
East Fife
0.94
Peterhead is 0.02 goals worse than Queen of the South in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.36).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cove Rangers
1.22
Airdrie United
1.44
East Kilbride
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.44
Queen of the South
1.44
Ross County
1.47
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
Peterhead is 0.33 goals worse than Queen of the South in terms of goals conceded per game (1.78 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Peterhead
For 4.5 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 16.1 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Queen of the South
For 2.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 6.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 11.0 · Total 20.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Peterhead
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.3
9.5
3.6
3.8
3.4
27.8
27.9
27.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (41)
10.0
10.3
9.8
3.3
3.3
3.3
26.9
26.5
27.2
vs Weaker (9)
7.0
5.5
8.5
5.0
6.2
4.0
31.2
33.2
29.2
% over line
43%
42%
44%
56%
60%
52%
86%
95%
78%
% under line
57%
58%
56%
44%
40%
48%
14%
5%
22%
This opponent (Queen of the South) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Queen of the South
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (27)
6.0
-
6.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
20.0
-
20.0
vs Stronger (16)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
6.0
-
6.0
0.5
0.0
0.6
20.0
-
20.0
vs Weaker (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
-
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
% under line
100%
-
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
-
100%
This opponent (Peterhead) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
10.9
Hamilton Academical
10.5
East Kilbride
10.4
Airdrie United
10.1
Alloa Athletic
10.0
East Fife
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.4
Peterhead
8.9
Montrose
8.5
Queen of the South
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Peterhead
5.0
Montrose
3.7
East Fife
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
Queen of the South
3.0
Hamilton Academical
2.7
Alloa Athletic
1.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
East Kilbride
26.4
East Fife
22.9
Montrose
22.2
Alloa Athletic
22.0
Cove Rangers
21.0
Ross County
21.0
Queen of the South
20.0
Airdrie United
20.0
Hamilton Academical
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
40.8%
Under 9.5
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
61.9%
Under 3.5
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
75.5%
Under 21.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Peterhead or Draw
71.8%
Avg Implied -
47%
25%
28%
covers Peterhead + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Peterhead or Queen of the South
74.8%
Avg Implied -
47%
25%
28%
covers Peterhead + Queen of the South
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Queen of the South
53.4%
Avg Implied -
47%
25%
28%
covers Draw + Queen of the South
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Peterhead over/under 0.5
Over
83.2%
Under
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 1.5
Over
53.3%
Under
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 2.5
Over
26.5%
Under
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 3.5
Over
10.6%
Under
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 0.5
Over
74.2%
Under
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 1.5
Over
39.3%
Under
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 2.5
Over
15.6%
Under
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 3.5
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Peterhead, so a minus line means Peterhead give that many goals of a start and Queen of the South receive them. At -1, Peterhead must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Peterhead win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Peterhead)
Peterhead -2
11.5%
Draw -2
14.4%
Queen of the South +2
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Peterhead)
Peterhead -1
25.9%
Draw -1
20.6%
Queen of the South +1
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Peterhead)
Peterhead +1
71.8%
Draw +1
15.4%
Queen of the South -1
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Peterhead)
Peterhead +2
87.2%
Draw +2
8.3%
Queen of the South -2
4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Peterhead
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.43
0.50
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.40
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.31
0.69
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.60
0.00
0.50
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen of the South) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Queen of the South
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.05
0.36
0.82
0.64
1.27
vs Stronger (13)
0.54
1.31
0.29
1.14
0.83
1.50
vs Similar (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.40
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
32% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Peterhead) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Peterhead over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Peterhead
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.93
0.64
1.00
0.75
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.92
0.75
1.00
0.77
0.85
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen of the South) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Queen of the South
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.41
0.64
0.55
0.64
0.27
0.64
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
0.85
0.14
0.86
0.33
0.83
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.20
1.67
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
55% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Peterhead) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Peterhead over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
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Hamilton Academical
Ross County
Alloa Athletic
East Kilbride
East Fife
Montrose
Cove Rangers
Airdrie United